Leicester v Aston Villa Betting Tips: Midlands Derby an opportunity for Villa

Unai Emery’s Aston Villa travel the short journey to the East Midlands searching for another three points on the road after their impressive opening day victory at West Ham. I’ve got a feeling there won’t be more than half a dozen teams who win at the London Stadium this campaign.

Steve Cooper’s Leicester side are still awaiting their first win of the new season after a draw with Spurs and defeat at Fulham last time out. The longer that goes on, the more pressure they’ll be under.

Lightning won’t strike twice

Despite a spirited draw against Spurs in their last home game, the reality is that Leicester could have been three or four nil down before they equalised, as Tottenham missed a host of guilt-edged opportunities to put the game to bed. That game saw Spurs have over 70% possession and more than double the number of shots than Cooper’s side, and I expect Villa to do the same in this one.

Spurs clicked in their next game knocking 4 past Everton. Fulham away was the last league outing for Leicester, which resulted in a 2-1 loss and the Wout Faes goal was controversial with many feeling the goal should have been chalked off.

Villa got the chocolates in their opener at West Ham but came up short against potential league winners Arsenal last weekend. There was something there for Aston Villa, which is highlighted in the underlying statistics, as they had an xG of 1.96 over the Gunners’ 1.34. Any replication of that display should make it highly likely they take 3 points here.

Gulf in class

With the forward players Emery has at his disposal, this should make the difference for Villa to win the game. The fact that 10 of their starting 11 in both Premier League games so far played together last season shows consistency.

That model of continuity and trust in the squad brought so much success last term. With 19 goals in the PL last season, the much-talked-about Ollie Watkins is the obvious goal threat. However, the likes of Morgan Rogers, Jhon Duran, and Leon Bailey all provide pace, creativity, and quality in the final third for Villa.

The Villains averaged 2 goals per game in the 23/24 season and only failed to score in 6 of their 38 matches last term. 26 goal attempts in their opening two games is testament to the philosophy and attacking brand of football Emery likes his side to play with, and I don’t see this letting up on Saturday.

Foxes defence to crumble

Cooper’s team are yet to keep a clean sheet since returning to the top flight. Moreover, they conceded 68 goals in their 38 matches last time in the Premier League two seasons ago, an average of almost 2 goals per game.

Perhaps even more worrying was The Foxes only kept 3 clean sheets from their 19 home games that campaign. Their defence has looked shaky in both games and they have faced an alarming total of 33 shots against them from just the two matches so far.

Back the Villa win at 4/5 with QuinnBet

Villa are 4/5 with QuinnBet to register three points in this clash which definitely has value compared to other available markets. I did look to the Team Total Shots market at bet365 too for Villa dominance but the line is a little high for me at 16.5.

Ultimately, keep it simple and back the Villa win at just under even money, as I expect the superiority in class to shine through and bring an away win in this Midlands Derby.

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Leicester v Aston Villa Best Bet

Best Bet

• Market: 1x2
• Selection: Aston Villa
• Odds: 4/5
• Stake: 1.5pts
• Bookie: QuinnBet

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