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Ginger Joe - Longshot Picks for the 2024 US Open at Pinehurst

Publish Date: 10/06/2024
Fact checked by: James Leeland
Key Points
  • Three longshot betting tips for the 2024 US Open
  • Three players at massive prices who can all outplay their odds
  • Don’t forget to head check out my full US Open preview and best bets

My Longshots for the 124th US Open

It’s almost time for the third Major of the year and the Pinehurst Resort and Country Club is set to play host. I have already prepared a full preview, together with my betting tips for the 124th US Open, so make sure to check that out as well. But for this one, I’m focusing on some longshots at massive prices, all of which are capable of playing well enough to find their way into the places.

I like players that hit a soft fade as their stock shots, but those that can also hit a nice soft draw too. I think the players that strike their irons the best this week won’t be far away, and there are some standout selections for sure. The three players I’m putting up for you have all won on the PGA Tour, they are all within the Top 60 in terms of world rankings. Better still, all three are priced at 350/1 or more with BetVictor, so I would definitely consider these three for small stakes. A lot of emphasis is being placed on the short game for Pinehurst and it is necessary for sure, but I think the importance of good ball strikers, particularly with irons, is being overlooked.

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Matthieu Pavon @ 400/1

My first longshot is one that might surprise a few this week, as it’s Frenchman Matthieu Pavon, who has done nothing but improve over the past couple of seasons and has held his own in some big events already. He has wins from his time on the DP World Tour under his belt, and in his first season on the PGA Tour, he has managed to win the Farmers Insurance Open, proving that he handles the US golf courses very well indeed.

Following that last victory, he has earned himself a world ranking of 24 and fully deserves it too. The week after his win in the Farmers Insurance Open he went on to finish third in the AT&T at Pebble Beach and again, that was a huge performance in unfamiliar conditions, which is the sign of a real class player. He can hit the ball both ways, and his excellent ball striking with irons makes him a very interesting prospect here. He has been a little out of form in the lead up to this event, but I’m certain he can bounce back here and easily outplay his odds.

Emiliano Grillo @ 400/1

Another interesting player is world number 55 Emiliano Grillo, who is more than capable of winning big events on the PGA Tour and already has two titles in his resume. He may not be the longest off the tee, and is another who is a little off form currently, but on paper his game suits Pinehurst really well. He plays a similar game to Matthieu Pavon in the sense that he has a soft fade and a soft drawand his stock shot has proved very effective at Pinehurst previously.

A lot of emphasis has been put on the short game this week, which is fair enough, as players who can scramble well this week will not lose shots on the field. However, I’m more inclined towards players who are solid right from the tee to the green and I think they will be the ones who will score the best, as this course is often about damage limitation. Emiliano Grillo has turned into a really solid player on the PGA Tour, his price is way too big for his credentials, and I think he has a great chance of picking up some decent prize money this week.

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Nick Taylor @ 350/1

My third and final longshot for the US Open is world number 30 Nick Taylor, another player whose talents are being underestimated this week. He already has four PGA Tour titles to his name, he won the Canadian Open last season, and this year he added the Phoenix Open to his tally. He actually won both of those last two events in a play off situation, so he is certainly a player that can keep his cool during the big moments.

He is plenty long off the tee, and another who is just superb with his irons on a going day. He tends to play his best golf at tough courses, so Pinehurst should suit him in that sense too. He did miss his last two cuts on the PGA Tour, but he didn’t play badly, he literally just needed to roll in a few more putts. As I write this he is also playing well in the final round of the Memorial Tournament and that could well indicate that he’s turned a corner just at the right time to play on the big stage this week. Either way, he has a great chance of picking up some place money, and that massive price tag discredits his ability for sure.

My longshot betting tips for the US Open

  • Matthieu Pavon @ 400/1
  • Emiliano Grillo @ 400/1
  • Nick Taylor @ 350/1

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