Key Points
- Time for the end credits of City horror movie
- Tight game expected with neither side firing in the goals
- 1.25pt tip for this midweek clash in Manchester
Manchester City entertain Nottingham Forest on Wednesday night with Pep Guardiola’s team going into the game having lost their last 4 PL matches and without a victory in any of the last 7 in all competitions.
The Sky Blues have slipped down to 5th in the table and are just one place and one point ahead of opponents Forest after their dismal recent run of form that has seen them take only 3 points from a possible 15 available. Only Aston Villa and Leicester have gained fewer points and conceded more goals than Pep’s side in these games.
European dreams and a crumbling title defence
Nuno Espirito Santo’s Reds responded to back-to-back defeats by beating Ipswich 1-0 last weekend thanks to who else but Chris Wood’s 9th PL goal of the season. The result lifted them back up to 6th in the table as Forest fans continue to dream of a shock return to European football come the end of the campaign.
What started out as a blip has turned into a major crisis for City. They are on their worst run of form since 2008, with head coach Guardiola having never lost more than 3 games in a row in his managerial career prior to this. The 2-0 defeat to their biggest title rivals Liverpool last Sunday at Anfield left City 11 points off the summit.
Some have suggested Pep’s side may well have conceded the Premier League crown already even at this stage of the season. Odds of 9/1 generally don’t look appealing and probably should be closer to 20s.
Can Forest spring a surprise?
After winning at Anfield earlier in the campaign, Forest might well fancy themselves to spring another surprise here and land yet another blow to City’s weakening title defence. However, despite this, I feel you can’t write City off to turn things around to a certain extent given how they have proved fans and critics wrong in past seasons.
They have shown time and time again that they are more than capable of going on consecutive winning streaks of double figures. The pure difference in skill levels of the players on the pitch still makes them legitimate short-priced favourites for this home match.
Defensive dependability key for Nuno
The Reds have built a large proportion of their success so far this term on a strong defensive foundation. They’ve conceded just 13 goals in their 13 PL games so far.
This record is the joint 2nd-best in the league, only Liverpool have shipped fewer goals with 8. Goalkeeper Matz Sels has also kept 5 clean sheets, the 3rd-highest number of shut-outs with only league leaders Liverpool and Manchester United having kept more this term.
Both sides have their woes in front of goal this season
It’s a good job the backline has been so solid given Forest have only scored more than 1 goal in a game 3 times out of 13 fixtures so far with Espirito Santo’s team the 6th lowest scorers in the PL. Despite the undoubted attacking riches at their disposal, Manchester City have only managed to score 3 goals in their last 5 PL matches and none in each of their last 2 games, with Erling Haaland having netted only once in 4 league games.
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A wounded animal waiting to bite back
Even though City and Guardiola are going through the club's worst run of form for almost two decades, I still feel they have the quality on the pitch as well as arguably the best manager in the league to get back to winning ways. This could restore some credibility to the season albeit that may be in the cup competitions.
City have still scored an average of 2 goals per game at The Etihad, the 4th best in the PL and Forest might face a backlash from the wounded animal set on proving the doubters wrong. Espirito Santo and Forest will know even with the contrasting current forms that they’ll have to be at their best to avoid defeat in this one.
Markets reacting to City slump, how to profit?
There will be many taking City on this mid-week but I feel there has to be a point where City’s odds have drifted so much they’ve become valuable to side with again. Ploughing into the win at a general 1/3 doesn’t make much appeal but by adding one other element into the equation I believe we have a value bet.
Given Forest’s stubborn rearguard and the fact they’ve only conceded 7 goals in their 6 away games and have kept 2 clean sheets on the road, I feel City will ultimately struggle to put more than a couple of goals past Nuno’s men. The away side will sit in a low-block and unlocking the door has become increasingly difficult for City in recent times.
The Half-time/Full-time bet of draw/Manchester City at 18/5 with
Unibet
does look a potential way to play this and I couldn’t put anybody off backing BTTS No at Evens with
bet365.
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Top tip: Man City win + under 4.5 goals at 4/5 with Ladbrokes
Ultimately though I’m erring on the side of caution and betting the Manchester City win with under 4.5 goals in the game at
Ladbrokes.
All of Nottingham Forest’s 13 games this season have been under 4.5 goals as have 11 of City’s matches. Moreover, Espirito Santo’s outfit have had more games end up under 2.5 goals than any other side this season, with 8 of their 13 games and half of their away fixtures producing no more than 2 goals.
This gives me enough confidence that the game will be low-scoring and then it’s down to arguably the best team in the world over the last five years to finally win their first game in 8 attempts and keep their title hopes alive come full-time.
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Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest Best Bet
- Market:
Match Result and Total Goals Over/Under
- Selection:
Manchester City and Under 4.5
- Odds:
4/5
- Stake:
1.25pts
- Bookie:
Ladbrokes
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