Key Points
- Amorim tactics are taking shape
- Forest looking to avoid three 3-0 away defeats on the bounce
- 3 bets selected including a 1.25pt belter
Nottingham Forest make their second trip to Manchester in the space of 3 days when they take on Manchester United at Old Trafford in Saturday’s evening kick-off.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side lost 3-0 at Manchester City in midweek, their second consecutive 3-0 defeat away from home. It’s a result that leaves them in 7th going into the clash at the Theatre of Dreams.
United suffered their first defeat in Ruben Amorim’s tenure in midweek, losing 2-0 away to Arsenal, as they slipped back into the bottom half to 13th place. That being said, the Red Devils are still only 3 points behind Forest and will go above them if they can secure a third home win on the spin.
Old Trafford regaining fear factor?
United have been on the receiving end of some hammerings at home in recent seasons but there are signs Old Trafford is returning to a much more difficult place for away teams to leave with maximum points.
The Red Devils are actually unbeaten at home since the end of September in all competitions. That’s a run of 7 games of which they have won 6 and Amorim and co. might fancy themselves to collect another victory when Forest head to town.
United have scored 10 goals in their last 3 home games and have won the last 2 in the PL without conceding a goal. By contrast, Espirito Santo’s side have lost the last 2 games away from the City Ground without scoring and are the 5th lowest scorers in the PL.
Rejuvenated Rashford
One player who seems rejuvenated with life under the Portuguese head coach and will be worrying defences again is Marcus Rashford.
He’s bagged 3 goals in the last 3 games since the new boss took the helm, having previously only netted 1 goal in his previous 9 appearances. The England international scored twice in Amorim’s only other PL home match and has scored the opener in 2 of the last 3 matches for The Red Devils.
Will Forest be able to stem the tide?
After being convincingly beaten at Manchester City and Arsenal on the road in recent weeks, the question to pose is whether Forest will be able to stop United from doing a similar job to them on Saturday. In my opinion, United already look like a different beast compared with how they were playing under Erik ten Hag.
Despite the loss at The Emirates on Wednesday, I expect Amorim’s men to be on the front foot and confident of responding with another home win. They were able to stifle Arsenal to an extent and this is a fair drop in class of opponent.
I expect to see Forest’s defensive resilience, which has been the backbone of what they’ve done very well so far this term, come under a wave of United attacks as the game wears on. It could be a case of how long and not if they can keep The Red Devils at bay.
Identifying a value bet
Scouring the plethora of markets available for this clash, considering what I’ve already mentioned and how I see the game panning out, I’m tempted to back Marcus Rashford as the first goalscorer.
Rashford to score first at 6/1 with bet365
Red-hot in recent weeks, and
bet365
are offering the best odds of 6/1 on him scoring the opening goal. This is something he has managed to do in 2 of the 3 league games since the managerial change.
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BTTS: No at 11/10 with Betfair
With both sides possessing relatively solid defences on the whole and goalkeepers Andre Onana and Mats Selz having 6 and 5 clean sheets respectively, I don’t see goals being that easy to come by at Old Trafford.
United have failed to score in 5 of their 14 fixtures so far, more than a third, and they are the 7th lowest scorers even with the 4 they netted against Everton in the last home match. United have kept the most clean sheets in the league this term, followed by Forest who have the joint 2nd most.
More stats to back up this pick
As United have only let in 2 goals in their last 4 PL matches on home soil, I’m a little surprised BTTS No is as big as 11/10 with
Betfair Sportsbook. The Red Devils also have the joint 2nd highest shut-outs at home of any side in the league so it really wouldn’t surprise me if they keep Chris Wood and company quiet in this one.
Additionally, United have the joint 2nd lowest number of games where both teams have scored (5), and for Forest, this is the joint-lowest number with 6 games. I’ve convinced myself by writing all these supporting stats.
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Top tip: Home Win + Under 4.5 goals at 1/1 with Ladbrokes
The main play for this match is Man United to win and under 4.5 goals which is even money with
Ladbrokes
and seems a great way to get the Red Devils on side.
They are as short as 1/2 in places to win the match so by just adding in the under 4.5 we get a very nice price boost. I feel the mood has completely lifted at United, particularly in front of their own fans. They are now playing with more freedom and less restraint than they were under former boss Ten Hag.
I see the game playing out in a similar way to the previous home fixture against Everton. Forest will look to play on the counterattack and United controlling the tempo and possession of the football.
Ultimately, United will have enough quality to condemn Forest to a second pointless trip to Manchester in less than a week.
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Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest Best Bets
- Market:
Match Result and Over/Under 4.5
- Selection:
Manchester United/Under 4.5
- Odds:
1/1
- Stake:
1.25pts
- Bookie:
Ladbrokes
- Market:
Both Teams To Score
- Selection:
No
- Odds:
11/10
- Stake:
0.5pt
- Bookie:
Betfair Sportsbook
- Market:
First Goalscorer
- Selection:
Marcus Rashford
- Odds:
6/1
- Stake:
0.25pt
- Bookie:
bet365
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