Manchester City v Manchester United Betting Tips: Value found in a minefield!

Wembley hosts yet another Manchester Derby, but there isn’t quite as much on this one as the meeting here back in May. That was quite a head-scratcher for those watching as it was a rare match where City just didn’t turn up.

There was a school of thought they were still pissed up from their recent title victory celebrations, where most players kicked on into the wee hours and goalkeeping ‘mentor’ Scott Carson was removed by bouncers.

No repeat on the cards for sober City

Whether it was all the San Mig or not, City were shocking and United just had to be clinical when they created their opportunities. Youngsters Garnacho and Mainoo did just that in the first half and Pep’s men never really looked likely to come from behind and win that day.

That performance more than anything will have wound the Citizens up. Even though this is a glorified friendly, there will be an awareness that another similar effort would be a very poor way to start the new campaign from a mental perspective.

Erik ten Haag has stated how proud he is of the two trophies he’s picked up since arriving at Old Trafford. That’s understandable and better than several of his predecessors but this season is surely seen as one in which they must make a better effort to compete with the top clubs and certainly make the top 4.

Makeshift line-ups make betting tricky

Injuries in pre-season to new £50m signing Leny Yoro and striker Rasmus Hoijland will have taken the wind out of United’s sails and according to some reports there are only 3, maybe 4 fit defenders for Saturday. Both teams will be fielding sides that show little resemblance to those they’ll have in a month’s time.

With players returning late from the Euros, we can expect to see plenty of subs in this one and that must be factored in when having a bet. Caution is always advised when betting on this match because of the heavy rotation seen and the lack of any meaningful form to go off.

I don’t rate pre-season friendlies in Tokyo or LA as credible and wouldn’t base a prediction on those bare results. What I would say those games give us a pointer towards, is who will likely start this game and possibly how long they’ll be on the pitch.

Value bet identified with Stoke’s favourite betting firm: Bet365

Mateo Kovacic is a player I expect to play at least 65-70 minutes barring injury. He’s played 66 and 80 minutes in City’s last two matches of pre-season.

Importantly, Rodri hasn’t played a minute of pre-season and is reported to be carrying a leg injury. This should mean that Kovacic is playing as the holding midfielder and he’s prone to making a foul. Being happy to get physical and knowing when to make a tactical foul are things I look for when betting into fouls and cards markets.

Kovacic over 0.5 fouls at 8/11

I’m happy to swerve the yellow card bet based on the generally lenient refereeing we see in this particular match, but seeing 8/11 to make one foul and 11/4 to make 2 or more at bet365 I have to play.

For comparison purposes, another big UK bookmaker have the same bets at 1/3 and 6/4 respectively. Given the nature of this unique fixture though and heavy substitutions assured, I’m reducing stakes here to half of what I would normally advise.

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Man City v Man United Best Bet

Best Bets

• Market: Player Fouls
• Selection: Mateo Kovacic Over 0.5
• Odds: 8/11
• Stake: 0.75pt
• Bookie: bet365

• Market: Player Fouls
• Selection: Mateo Kovacic Over 1.5
• Odds: 11/4
• Stake: 0.25pt
• Bookie: bet365

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