Key Points
- Somewhat inconsistent Toon Army to have a good day
- Foxes unable to prevent attacks
- Biggest bet of the week, a rare 2pt selection
Recently appointed head coach Ruud van Nistelrooy takes charge of his Leicester side for the first time on the road when they travel up to the North East to face Eddie Howe’s Newcastle this Saturday.
The Foxes have taken 4 points from van Nistelrooy’s 2 fixtures so far, including a stirring fightback from 2 goals down to claim a last-minute draw at home to Brighton last weekend. That result leaves them in 16th place and five points above the relegation zone ahead of the game at St. James’ Park.
For Howe and Newcastle, it’s been an inconsistent campaign to say the least, with The Magpies perched in mid-table 12th position after 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats. The Toon Army are without a win in any of their last 4 matches and have taken just 2 points from the 12 available, keeping just 3 clean sheets all season.
The Foxes have the joint 3rd -worst record away from home this season, gaining only 5 points from a possible 21 on their travels and are yet to keep a clean sheet away from home.
The leaky Leicester defence has been clear to see, particularly in away games where they’ve shipped 18 goals, only Wolves have conceded more than this with 20. With just 1 win on the road and 4 defeats already, it looks an uphill struggle for van Nistelrooy’s side to avoid being up against it again defensively when they visit Tyneside.
Isak’s on fire
Newcastle striker Alexander Isak is in blistering form at the moment, having scored 6 goals in the last 8 games, including bagging the opening goal in 3 of the last 4 games at St. James’ Park. The Swedish international has found the net 4 times in the last 6 PL matches and in consecutive games for the 2nd time this term.
Newcastle are strongly expected to dominate proceedings against a Leicester side lacking in confidence on the road and Isak might well fill his boots once again in front of The Toon Army faithful. He’ll be popular this weekend among those looking for shots on target and goals bets along with Fantasy Football managers.
Ruud awakening for van Nistelrooy
Having claimed a win against West Ham and a rousing comeback draw against Brighton in his first two games as Leicester boss, I feel van Nistelrooy will face a tougher challenge against Howe’s men when he takes charge of his first away game for The Foxes.
Despite managing to score in all but 1 game this campaign, Leicester have still conceded the 3rd-highest number of goals with 30. Only relegation-threatened Wolves and Southampton have let in more.
Leicester have the worst goals-against-per-game ratio away from home in the league, conceding an average of 2.57 goals from their 7 fixtures. So the new Dutch manager still has his work cut out to turn this around and avoid relegation.
Shots, shots, shots at St James’
Finding value in backing anything pro-Newcastle is the challenge here. I fully expect them to win while scoring at least two but the prices on offer for a Newcastle win or even taking a -1 or 1.5 Asian Handicap look devoid of genuine value. So it’s in alternative markets where there may still be an opportunity.
No value in the total corners market
Unfortunately, it doesn’t come in the shape of betting on Newcastle to have the most corners. That’s something I envisage will happen with Howe’s side being awarded the 6th-highest number of corners in the PL so far. Meanwhile, Leicester have been awarded the 4th-lowest number of corners and have given away the 6th-highest total.
This trend is extremely likely to continue against a Newcastle team who have shown, especially at home, that they can more than match the best teams in the league. However, the 1/4 best available odds from
Unibet
are pretty much spot-on and simply not attractive enough to suggest a bet.
The aforementioned Alexander Isak could also single-handedly cause van Nistelrooy and the Leicester defence problems as he looks to continue his current form in front of goal. As well as notching 6 goals in his last 8 appearances, Isak also has 3 assists to his name.
Given the way Howe and his team like to utilise the width of the pitch and their attacking players cutting infield to get amongst the chances, it could well mean Isak claims another assist too.
PaddyPower are offering the best odds of 4/7 on the Swede either scoring or assisting against the shaky Foxes defence but again, for me these odds aren’t offering any real value.
Top pick: Newcastle over 16.5 shots with Unibet
Instead, my pick for this St. James’ Park showdown is for Newcastle to have over 16.5 shots during the game. I’m confident putting this up and backing it myself against a Leicester backline which concedes chances for fun.
In their second-to-last home game against West Ham, they conceded 31 shots. They’ve faced an average of 20 shots against them in their last 3 fixtures alone, it does look extremely likely Newcastle will cause them similar issues once again.
For The Magpies to have over 16.5 shots in the game,
Unibet
are offering best odds of 8/11. For me, this has some real value given Leicester’s alarming rate of shots towards their own goal and the fact Newcastle have had the 9th-highest number of shots in the PL themselves.
Bet £10 Get £40 in Bonuses
18+. BeGambleAware.org. New GB customers only. Min £10 debit card deposit. Place a £10+ bet on sportsbook at min odds 2/5 (1.4) each leg. Receive 2 x £10 free bets within 24 hours of bet settlement, and further 2 x £10 casino bonus the next day.T&C’s apply.
Great value at Unibet compared to other bookies
Compared to other bookmakers, we are getting a stand-out price here as the same selection is as short as 1/3 elsewhere. Time to wade in while the discrepancy is so significant.
Goalkeeper Mads Hermansen and The Foxes have faced an average of 18.1 shots against them this season. Moreover, with the creative forward players and attacking quality Newcastle possess, as well as the danger they pose from set-pieces with defenders Dan Burn and Fabian Schar, for me it could be another long afternoon for van Nistelrooy’s team and his defensive rearguard.
Unibet sign up bonus:
Bet £10 & Get £40 in Bonuses.
Newcastle vs Leicester Best Bet
- Market:
Team Total Shots
- Selection:
Newcastle Over 16.5
- Odds:
8/11
- Stake:
2pts
- Bookie:
Unibet
🌎 Follow TheFund elsewhere!
Instagram:
thefund.bet
Telegram:
thefundbet
