Key Points
- Forest sit in top 4, Spurs might not even finish top half!
- How long can Ange last out?
- Expect a cracking match with action at both ends
4th-placed Nottingham Forest host a Tottenham side who slipped down into the bottom half of the table following their 6-3 defeat at home to Liverpool last time out.
Ange Postecoglou’s team find themselves in 11th position in the PL standings and 8 points adrift of Forest heading into the Boxing Day bout at the City Ground after 1 victory and 3 defeats in their previous 5 PL matches.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have arguably been the surprise package of the campaign so far and have gained 31 points from their 17 matches. This is, incredibly, just 1 point shy of their total during the whole of the 2023/2024 season where they finished 4th from bottom.
Forest won away at Brentford last Saturday, becoming the first side to leave the G-Tech with 3 points this season.- Moreover, they defeated Aston Villa at home and claimed a win away at Old Trafford in the two games before that.
The Reds are chasing their 4th win on the bounce and 5th win out of the last 6 league games as they pursue the Champions League places, something many thought was unthinkable at the beginning of the campaign.
Boxing Day bonanza
This time of year it’s usually Santa who delivers presents but I expect these two sides to serve up a real festive treat on Thursday afternoon.
Spurs are the top scorers in the Premier League this term with 39 goals, an average of 2.29 goals per game. They have scored 11 goals in their last 3 league games and 16 in the last 5 in all competitions.
Forest are usually a little more resolute, with just 19 goals conceded being the 3rd-lowest out of all the sides, yet 9 of their last 11 fixtures have produced 3 or more goals in them.
Can Forest capitalise on Spur’s defensive gifts?
Tottenham have conceded 18 goals and have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 8 fixtures in all competition with inconsistency proving to be a real pitfall this term.
The Reds will be hopeful of taking advantage of any extra Christmas gifts Spurs might hand out at the City Ground as they seek to consolidate their place in the top 4.
Forest have bagged 7 goals in their last 3 games and have only failed to score in 1 of their 8 matches on home soil. Moreover, only 3 teams (Liverpool, Chelsea, and Arsenal) have lost fewer games than Forest’s 4 this term, which is a testament to how difficult a side they are to defeat.
European dream? You “WOODn’t” bet against it!
Aside from Man City’s collapse, Forest’s success this season is probably the most surprising storyline of the Prem.
Kiwi striker Chris Wood has played an integral part in this sensational run of form. The New Zealand international has netted 10 times already for The Reds, with half of these coming in front of the Forest faithful.
Despite scoring just once in the previous 4 matches, the 33-year-old has still been in the form of his career and is also the club’s penalty taker, and has scored two this term.
He’s every chance to score again, as when Spurs roll into town it usually means one thing, goals ...a lot of them.
Freescoring Tottenham counterbalanced by defensive frailties
As aforementioned, Postecoglou’s outfit are top scorers in the EPL so far, having scored 2 more than league leaders Liverpool and 2nd-placed Chelsea. So they have no issue finding the net with their attacking style of football.
However, it’s at the other end where there are major concerns. In recent weeks they have shipped 10 goals in the last 3 league games and 14 in the last 5 in all competitions. They sure are entertaining for the neutral but a nightmare if you are connected with Spurs.
Make hay while the goals rain
With any Spurs clash the first port of call is goals and markets that relate to a high-scoring affair. Under consideration was the match result and both teams to score market.
Given the consistency Espirito Santo’s side have shown throughout the season, a stark contrast with Spurs’ frustrating inconsistency, I would lean towards Forest & BTTS at 13/5 with
bet365
if having a bet in that market.
The fact Spurs have only failed to score 3 times all season says to me they are certainly good for at least a goal in this one, particularly with the talents of Dominic Solanke, Dejan Kulusevski, and former Forest favourite Brennan Johnson.
On the flip side, I believe Forest will breach backup goalkeeper Fraser Forster’s goal, he isn’t top-class anymore and there is a makeshift defence sitting in front of him.
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Top pick: BTTS + over 2.5 goals at 3/4 with Ladbrokes
Both teams to score on its own is priced at 4/9 and over 2.5 goals at 8/15, both fair but instead of tipping either of those, I am instead suggesting betting the pair.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at the combined odds of 3/4 with
Ladbrokes. Considering there have been over 2.5 goals scored in 37 of Tottenham’s last 46 PL games and in half of the games at the City Ground this term, these odds do look attractive.
Furthermore, the fact both teams have only failed to score 3 times all season shows they are more than capable of striking against each other, especially with Forest being at home.
12 of Spurs’ 17 PL fixtures have ended over 2.5 goals already this season (more than two-thirds) and this trend I expect to continue by full-time when the lights go out on this Boxing Day bout.
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As an extra bet, I’m happy to take Chris Wood to have over 1.5 shots on target, that’s best priced at 17/10 with
QuinnBet. Wood has had the joint-highest number of shots per game along with teammate Morgan Gibbs-White.
With 48% of Forest’s attacks coming down their left-hand side and classy operator Callum Hudson-Odoi supplying the crosses, it could lend itself to creating some solid goal scoring chances and opportunities for the New Zealander against the questionable Spurs’ defence.
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Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Best Bet
- Market:
Both Teams to Score and Total Goals Over/Under
- Selection:
Yes and Over 2.5
- Odds:
3/4
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
Ladbrokes
- Market:
Player Shots On Target
- Selection:
Chris Wood Over 1.5
- Odds:
17/10
- Stake:
0.5pt
- Bookie:
QuinnBet
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