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Academy Awards Best Picture Latest Odds and Betting Preview

Liam Hoofe

Novelty Betting Writer

Publish Date: 22/10/2025

Fact checked by: Jordan Noble

The end of 2025 is in sight, which means that awards season is nearly upon us. While the Academy Awards are not scheduled to take place until March 15th, 2026, all of the major contenders are now beginning to stake their claim for the Best Picture prize.

In this guide to the 98th Academy Award betting odds, we break down the current betting landscape, analyse the biggest contenders, and look at key dates that could influence the race for Best Picture.

Current Academy Awards Best Picture winner odds

Below are the latest odds for Best Picture winner at the 2026 Academy Awards from Betfred.

One Battle After Another 1/3
Hamnet 5/2
Sentimental Value 9/1
Sinners 9/1
Avatar: Fire and Ash 10/1
Marty Supreme 10/1
After the Hunt 12/1
Frankenstein 14/1
The Ballad of a Small Player 16/1
Wicked: For Good 16/1

Who are the Best Picture frontrunners?

This year’s Best Picture race is a curious one. A glance at the odds suggests that the race is over before it has even really started, with Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another already priced at 1/3 with Betfred.

However, history tells us that the race is never decided this early. While it is rare for a film to be so fancied this early on, there is precedent for early favourites losing steam as awards season heats up.

As such, it is worth looking at some of the other contenders for value. Hamnet, at 5/2 with Betfred, is the film most favoured to mount a challenge. Chloe Zhao swept the Academy Awards in 2021 with Nomadland, and her period drama has all the makings of a Best Picture winner.

Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value looks best placed to be the international film that breaks into the race this year. The film won the Grand Prix prize at Cannes and could pick up more momentum as the award season continues. It is available at 9/1 with Betfred.

Sinners is the surprise package of the frontrunners and is also priced at 9/1. The Academy has a resistance to horror, and the fact that the film was released so early is likely to work against it. Despite this, Sinners has forced its way into the awards conversation due to its immense popularity. It could be the Get Out of 2026.

Neither Avatar: Fire and Ash nor Wicked: For Good has premiered yet, and they can be found at 10/1 and 16/1, respectively. We fully expect both of these to sweep the board in terms of nominations. However, the Academy is not particularly pro-sequel, so we wouldn’t recommend backing either of them for a surprise victory.

Key dates for the Academy Awards 2026

As a rule, award season momentum begins to shift in December and January, as major critics' groups and guilds start hosting their ceremonies and handing out awards.

The Golden Globes, on January 5th, are the first major stop on the road and are often a significant indicator of a film's momentum. This is followed by the guild awards in February, with the Producers Guild Awards and the Screen Actors Guild being among the most predictive ceremonies for Oscar success.

The last stop before the big night is the BAFTAs in February. A major surprise on the night could throw the whole race up in the air.

Typically, from a betting perspective, we would recommend holding off until The Globes, but given how much of a frontrunner One Battle After Another is so far in advance, exploring alternative options like Hamnet, Sentimental Value and Sinners, which have plenty of time to gain some ground, could be worth a punt.

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