
We are nearly 12 months into Donald Trump’s second term as US president, and it’s been an eventful year, to say the least. The controversial figure still has three years left in office, but he will not, as it stands, be eligible to run for a third term in the 2028 election. As such, a new president will need to be elected. The 2028 election will be the first in 12 years to not have Trump on the ballot paper, and will be a strong indication of the future direction of US and world politics.
The next US President market is wide open as of December 2025. This is how UK bookmakers are pricing up potential candidates.
Current Vice President JD Vance is the man currently favoured by the bookies to be the next US President. While Vance has not formally announced his intention to run for president in 2028, it is widely assumed he will stand as the Republican candidate. He is currently priced at 5/2 with Betfred.
Given how volatile Trump can be, these odds actually feel a little too short. Vance is forever going to be tied to Trump’s presidency, which means that if anything goes South for Trump in the next few years, which it very feasibly could, then Vance’s own popularity will be damaged.
Vance undoubtedly has support among the conservative wing of the Republican Party, but he lacks Trump's charisma, which could hurt him in a race against a more dominant Democratic candidate.
It is also highly likely that his campaign will be overshadowed by Trump comparisons and questions about his time as VC, both of which could distract from his own messaging and become a weakness.
While Vance seems a lock to be the Republican candidate, there is considerable debate about who will be his opponent. Right now, Gavin Newsom is fancied by the bookmakers, with the Governor of California currently priced at 4/1 with BetMGM.
Newsom is looking like the popular choice right now, with the 58-year-old making waves across social media. Newsom’s biggest battle will be the one Democrats have faced for the last decade: he is very much an establishment figure.
In this new age of populism, career-style politicians like Newsom have struggled to connect with the US public, and some pundits believe he could be the wrong choice as a result.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is seen as the party’s alternative candidate, and she has risen up the odds in the last few weeks. She is now available at 12/1 with Betfred. Her move to third favourite in the race is also partly due to the election of Zohran Mamdani as New York Mayor.
Mamdani has shown that a different approach to politics can work in the US. However, it is essential to note that New York is not the USA, and that the broader voting public may not have the same appetite as the Big Apple, with many still viewing the city as the embodiment of the liberal elite.
Astonishingly, Donald Trump is priced just below Cortez at 16/1 with Star Sports. U.S. presidents can only run for two terms under the Constitution, but Trump being a better price than some other major candidates suggests this is unlikely to be a normal election. If Trump does not choose to go quietly, as many around him are suggesting he won’t, then he could be worth an outside punt at 16/1. It would be unheard of for a President to attempt to run for a third term, but you can never rule it out with Trump.
Much like Obama in 2008 or Trump in 2016, you should never rule out a candidate rising up the ranks quickly as the election gets closer. As such, we recommend keeping an eye on candidates such as Andy Bashear, Pete Buggieig, and Josh Shaprio.
Bashear, in particular, is an interesting candidate, as the Kentucky Governor has performed exceptionally well in a red state. Some pundits see him as a man who could break through and connect with more traditional Republican, anti-Trump voters. You can bet on him at 40/1 with bet365.
The next U.S. presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, 7 November 2028. The winning candidate will then take office in January 2029.

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