Rachel Reeves' Exit Date as Chancellor: Latest Odds and Betting Preview

Rachel Reeves' Exit Date as Chancellor: Latest Odds and Betting Preview

It’s been less than a month since Rachel Reeves delivered her highly anticipated budget, and it’s fair to say the Chancellor of the Exchequer is more unpopular than ever. Reeves’ budget has been met with a mixed response, with many feeling her days as Chancellor are numbered as the economy continues to struggle under her watch.

The bookies certainly think this, with markets now open speculating on her exit date. In this preview, we take a closer look at when UK bookmakers believe Reeves will step aside, and offer our take on the situation.

Current Rachel Reeves' Exit Date as Chancellor odds

This is how Star Sports is currently pricing up the odds for the year Rachel Reeves is replaced as Chancellor of the Exchequer

• 2025 - 6/1
• 2026 - 4/9
• 2027 - 11/2
• 2028 - 9/1
• 2029 or later - 10/1

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When is Rachel Reeves likely to be replaced?

It feels like it's a matter of when, and not if, Rachel Reeves will be replaced. With just a few weeks left of 2025, the chances of Reeves stepping aside feel very slim, with Star Sports pricing this at 6/1.

As things stand, 2026 looks like it will be the year of reckoning for Reeves, as well as Starmer’s vision for Labour in general. The upcoming Senedd Election in Wales next May is going to be one of the most important non-Westminster elections in recent memory. If Labour get wiped out there, as many anticipate it will, Starmer’s position may become untenable, and so, in turn, does Reeves’.

Reeves’ position is strongly linked to Starmer’s, and if we have seen anything from his premiership so far, it’s that he views Reeves and her budgets as a vehicle for his wider political positions.

Starmer has been adamant that these moves are part of a wider plan to fix the economy and stimulate growth across the UK, and by dismissing Reeves, he would, in part, be admitting that his own plan has gone wrong.

Smart money would be on Reeves leaving in 2026, which is priced at 4/9 by Star Sports. However, at 9/2, backing her to leave in 2027 could be worth a small punt. Starmer has shown stubbornness when it comes to backing his cabinet, and he might just give Reeves one more budget next year before ousting her.

Who is likely to replace Rachel Reeves?

When it comes to unenviable political positions, taking over from Rachel Reeves when she does inevitably step aside or is ousted has to be right at the top. Pat McFadden and Torsten Bell are the two names being heavily touted, with Betfred pricing them at 5/4 and 7/2 respectively. McFadden is one of the more experienced MPs in Starmer's cabinet, while Bell has an impressive financial background and is often highlighted as a future star of the party.

Why is Rachel Reeves likely to leave?

Rachel Reeves stepping down as Chancellor of the Exchequer feels like a case of when, and not if.

Keir Starmer’s Labour government have been incredibly unpopular since taking charge in mid-2024, and one of the biggest reasons for that has been the two budgets overseen and delivered by Reeves.

The 2025 budget has been divisive, with notable policies including a significant increase in the remote gaming tax, taking it from 21% to 40% at the beginning of next April, and a rise in remote betting tax from 15% to 25%, both of which are set to have a big impact on online casinos and bookmakers in the UK.