The Best Politics Bets to Place in 2026

With Donald Trump's first 12 months in office, the rise of Reform in the UK, and the rise of populism across Europe, 2025 was certainly a turbulent year in politics. 2026 promises more of the same, with key elections taking place on either side of the Atlantic. There has never been a better time to bet on politics, with odds fluctuating overnight and plenty of value to be had.

Star Sports is kicking off the year with a bang, serving up a big selection of political specials alongside their main politics markets. The following are our picks for the best bets to place at the start of 2026, and a quick look at some other key markets.

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Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch to be replaced as party leaders: 4/1

If things continue as they have for the Labour Party and the Conservatives, it seems highly likely that both Kier Starmer and Kemi Badenoch will have to fight to keep their jobs in 2026.

StarSports offers several special markets on the party leaders. Kemi Badenoch to be ousted before Kier Starmer is at 6/5, while Starmer to go first is at 4/6.

Historically, the Conservative Party has been much more prone to leadership changes, and with Robert Jenrick waiting in the wings, there could be some value here.

Starmer’s job will no doubt come under fire if the Welsh elections go as predicted. As such, backing both him and Kemi Badenoch to be replaced as party leaders by the end of 2026 in the politics special section at Star Sports at 4/1 offers great value.

Andy Burnham to become an MP: 11/4

One of the biggest names waiting in the wings to potentially succeed Kier Starmer as Prime Minister is Andy Burnham. Unfortunately for the current mayor of Manchester, he will face an uphill battle because he is not currently an MP.

Burnham will need to change this in 2026 if he is going to have any chance of moving into number 10, and he will need to do it quickly and quietly.

Labour's opposition will no doubt jump on Burnham becoming an MP and highlight it as a sign of trouble within the party and mistrust in Starmer.

Of course, whether Starmer would want Burnham as an MP for precisely that reason also remains to be seen. Of course, a new leader might also see things differently and want to keep their enemies close.

Either way, Andy Burnham is going to remain a key figure in discussions about the future of the Labour Party, and if he is serious about being PM one day, he needs to become an MP again. We think there is great value in that happening at 11/4 with Star Sports.

Donald Trump to Visit Russia: 7/1

Donald Trump is nothing if not unpredictable. His first 12 months in office have arguably been the most chaotic of any US President in history, and he will no doubt up the ante in 2026.

He has also shown an ongoing obsession with the Nobel Peace Prize and has been continuously frustrated by his inability to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. While most Western leaders would not consider visiting Russia, Trump is no ordinary leader, and with pressure from the midterms mounting in 2026, there is a strong chance he will attempt to grab headlines with a visit to Russia. As of 7/1, we see value here.

Other political markets to watch in 2026

With huge elections in France, the US, and the UK over the next few years, 2026 might appear to be the calm before the storm. In reality, it is much more likely to be the year that seriously shapes these upcoming elections, with smaller events like the midterms and the Welsh election giving us an indication of what is to come.

US Democratic and Republican Nominee Markets

We are now less than three years out from the next US election, and with the midterms in 2026, the lay of the land should start to become clearer.

With Donald Trump fulfilling his two-term quota, a new President will be elected in 2028, which means both parties will need to choose a candidate. While JD Vance appears to be the obvious candidate for the Republicans, with StarSport pricing him at 7/10, the Democrats are slightly more open.

Gavin Newsom leads the pack at 13/8, but Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has closed the gap and is now at 5/2 with StarSports. Likewise, J.B. Pritzker has come out of nowhere and is now the fourth favourite at 14/1, putting him at the same odds as Pete Buttigieg, and just beyond Josh Shapiro, who is at 12/1.

Right now, Shapiro offers the best value at 12/1, with many of these prices likely to change over the next year. This will be one of the best political betting markets to monitor throughout 2026 as the race to the Oval Office really kicks into gear.

Next Welsh Senedd Election

With Reform leading the polls and the UK’s two traditional parties heading into 2026 on the back foot, the British political landscape has never felt more unpredictable than it does right now.

The Senedd Election in 2026 is set to be the most consequential Welsh election in modern history. Labour has dominated Welsh politics for over a decade, but its time is up, and the battle between the centre-left Welsh party Plaid Cymru and Reform UK is going to be one of the most interesting battles in recent political memory.

We caught a glimpse of this in the Pontypridd by-elections in October, but things will ramp up further at the start of 2026, with the whole country going to the polls. Plaid are currently at 8/11 with Star Sports, while Reform are at evens.