PDC Darts Betting Tips

We have a fitting final at Alexandra Palace, as the two best players statistically throughout the event, Luke Littler and Gian van Veen, are set to face off for the £1m top prize.

Both boast tournament averages of more than 102, and the world number one and the new world number three were both superb in different ways on semi-finals night.

Littler made his 105 average look effortless. He went a set down against first-time World Championship semi-finalist Ryan Searle, but the result was never in serious doubt. The Nuke recorded a ton-plus average in all seven sets, underlining the gap in levels between the two players, with Searle unable to sustain the standard required to cause an upset.

Van Veen’s display was perhaps more eye-catching, despite posting an average two points lower than Littler’s. The Dutchman went toe to toe with Gary Anderson, who scored heavily for the majority of the contest and did not relent until the closing stages.

The crowd were firmly behind Anderson, at times booing Van Veen while he was throwing for doubles. That context made his 55 per cent checkout rate all the more impressive.

Tipster Ben Smith has laid out his best bets for the final, with all odds available at BetMGM, one of the leading darts betting sites for this event.

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Both Players to Checkout Over 140.5 in the Match (9/4)

Littler and Van Veen are not only the top two players at this tournament in terms of averages, but they also sit first and second in the checkout percentage rankings.

Both have converted more than half of their attempts at double, regularly mopping up two-dart combinations while also producing some huge finishes. That efficiency on the outer ring has been a key factor in their runs to the final, particularly in Van Veen’s case.

The World Youth champion has already reeled in the big fish on three occasions - none more memorable than in set five against Gary Anderson, when he responded to the Flying Scotsman’s 170 checkout with one of his own.

Littler has landed a single 170 so far, but he will not want to be outdone in the high checkout department. With both players capable of pushing each other on, this matchup has the potential to produce a sequence of top-level three-dart combinations, and the price on both players to land a checkout over 140.5 looks appealing.

170 Checkout in the Match (7/4)

Van Veen’s accuracy on the bullseye has been superb throughout the tournament. He must fancy his chances on the 170 every time he leaves it.

The same can be said for Luke Littler. He regularly engineers shots at the big fish by aiming at a big number on the setup shot, rather than attempting a treble to leave something easier.

This angle paid off for us in Littler’s match against Krystof Ratajski, albeit at a bigger price. With two players of this calibre meeting over a longer format in the final, there is scope for the same approach to work again.

At odds of 7/4, backing a 170 checkout remains a bet worth revisiting given the way both players have been finishing in this tournament.

Match Winning Double - Double 20 (2/1)

Given the way Van Veen has passed every test put in front of him, finding his best scoring and finishing against two former world champions in Luke Humphries and then Anderson, there are few doubts about his ability to repeat that standard in the final. He is already a major champion and has shown clearly that he belongs at this level.

However, beating Littler over a long format is something nobody has managed since the Nuke was 16, when he lost to Humphries on this stage two years ago. Since then, he has been unbeaten in matches of 20 legs or more, and in a contest that could stretch beyond 40 legs, it becomes even harder to see him being stopped.

Littler is a tops and double 10 merchant. He has barely gone near double 16 throughout the tournament, and when he accidentally left double 12 at one point in the semi-final, it visibly disrupted his rhythm.

Given how regularly Littler leaves tops, and how likely he is to come through as the winner, the winning dart being double 20 is an attractive bet.

Luke Littler to Win 7-4, Littler -3.5 180s Handicap, Over 32.5 180s (9/1)

Finally, I will use the BetMGM bet builder to put together a longshot that still has a realistic chance. A 7-4 scoreline is the second most common PDC World Darts Championship final result behind 7-3, and between them, those two outcomes account for half of all finals since the format moved to best of 13 sets.

I prefer 7-4, given the quality Van Veen has shown. If the match reaches 11 sets, then a total of 33 180s is very achievable. Littler has hit a maximum at an average rate of one every two legs across the tournament, while Van Veen has been registering 0.35 per leg.

There should be no shortage of maximums, especially from the defending champion. Littler has covered the -3.5 180s handicap in all but one of his matches on the way to the final, with the only exception coming in a straight three-set win.

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