Key Points
- This horse is well handicapped judging from his form in France
- Course form at Cheltenham is crucial, and this horse has it
- My selection has the current UK Champion Jockey in the saddle
For Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival, I have found a horse that looks to be completely underestimated and overpriced. He looks fantastic each way value for a race where there are plenty of places as well. My selection for today runs in the Hallgarten And Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, more commonly known as the Fred Winter.
If you have missed my articles to date, they are well worth checking out. These include an antepost selection for the Coral Cup and an each way Lucky 15 with one horse from each day of the Festival. Next up will be my best bet for Day 2, so keep your eyes peeled for that tomorrow.
Betting advice
- Day 1 - The Fred Winter (16:40 Tuesday) -
Quantock Hills
@ 18/1 (5 places)
0.5pt Each Way
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Quantock Hills - Flying under the radar and he’ll do the same up the hill
For me, Quantock Hills is completely underestimated in the market at 18/1 and represents excellent each way value. These big Cheltenham Festival Handicaps can often see the same horses attracting market support in each race. This year’s renewal of the Fred Winter is a prime example of that. The top three in the market are all owned by JP McManus, and while they all have their chances, you cannot help but feel their ownership is a big factor.
Likewise, two of them are trained by Joseph O’Brien, who won this race last year and also back in 2019. Are the punters simply latching on to last year’s winning trainer? The other usual suspects appear as well such as Handicap plotting master - Gavin Cromwell, and the “whatever Paul Townend is riding” angle with Sony Bill. But I believe that the far less obvious Warren Greatrex could have the answer with Quantock Hills, and as he isn’t an obvious trainer to look at for this race, the horse really is flying under the radar.
Now I am not going to claim to be a fount of knowledge when it comes to French racing, but I know enough to get by. And more crucially, let’s just say that I know people who know their apples. Between both angles, I really like the look of Quantock Hills based on his form across the Channel. He won a Conditions Hurdle at Dieppe in June 2024, beating Maguelon and Moty Marc. Maguelon won two races at Fontainbleau and placed in a further two races there, and also at Compiegne. He is currently rated at 63 in France, which translates to a British rating of 126, based on the simple 2lb to 1kg conversion that the British handicapper uses.
Moty Marc won two races at Clairefontaine, and more recently placed in a Grade 3 at Auteuil. He now has a rating of 66 which converts to 132 here. Now if you consider that Quantock Hills has beaten them both, you would naturally assume he’d have a higher rating, but in the UK, he is rated at just 126, so based on his French form, he looks well treated indeed.
At Cheltenham, course form can be a massive advantage. Cheltenham is a very unique track and as the old saying goes - horses for courses - and many don’t handle the latter at Prestbury Park. It doesn’t matter how much ability they have, if they don’t enjoy the track, you’ll struggle to get a good run for your money. If they haven’t run at Cheltenham before, it really is a risk, so I’d much rather be on a horse that has proven to have a liking for Cheltenham.
Quantock Hills ticks that box firmly, with a win here back in December. The race was officially declared a dead heat, but I did feel sorry for him, as I think he deserved to win it. He raced on the worst part of the track for starters, and after the last, he hung left into the middle of the track and began to idle. If he had gone right towards the rail, I think it would have guided him home and he would have won nicely. Instead, he was treading water and Teriferma came to share the glory with him. Nonetheless, he has winning form around this track and that counts for a lot.
The current UK Champion Jockey takes the ride
In a race that can provide a great deal of hustle and bustle, you want a great jockey in the saddle. And there are few better than current UK Champion Jockey, Harry Cobden, and Warren Greatrex has booked him to ride Quantock Hills here. Although Harry has only had five rides for Warren Greatrex this season, he has managed one win and two second places, so he isn’t booked for no good reason.
I’d have Quantock Hills at half the price he is currently
When you consider his French form, Cheltenham form and experience, plus the excellent jockey booking, I feel Quantock Hills has been overlooked significantly in the market. I believe that he represents huge value at 18/1, and I’m really shocked that he isn’t much shorter in the betting. Frankly he wouldn’t look out of place if he was half of his current price and I’d certainly argue that anything at 10/1, or above, looks a very good bet to me this close to the Festival.
Even if you just look back to his Hurdles debut for Warren Greatrex, he was trying to give a stone away to Opec but failed. That was disappointing at the time, but Opec won on his next two starts and is now rated 125, so with the benefit of hindsight, it was actually a cracking effort. The Fred Winter is never an easy race to pick the winner for, but if I’m going to have a crack at it, I want a decent price to make it worthwhile. At 18/1, we have that with Quantock Hills, and I’m very happy to give him a shot.
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