I have looked closely at the King George VI Chase with a focus on trends and stats. Plus, I’ve considered the 2025 entries and provided a betting analysis. Trends can be a great help when it comes to finding horses to consider, or to avoid, potentially saving you a lot of time compared to analysing the runners individually.
If you don’t know me already, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert here at Betting.co.uk. I publish multiple articles each week, mostly
free horse racing tips, but you’ll also find educational guides and non-trending news pieces too.
Speaking of the King George VI Chase, I’ll shortly be publishing another article which looks back at previous renewals of the race and reveals the top three performers over the last 25 years. The Welsh Grand National is also getting the same treatment. My
Welsh Grand National Legends
article is already live, with a
trends article
due to be published soon.
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Trends can help you to narrow down your search for the winner
Trends are not a guaranteed method of success. However, if previous winners tick certain boxes, then it’s worth looking to see which of this year’s entries tick the same ones. Arguably, it’s just as important to see which horses don’t fit the bill. Those can then be excluded to narrow down your search for the most likely winner.
Key Trends
First we’ll take a look into the most important stats and trends for the King George VI Chase based on the last 10 renewals:
- Age - 8/10 were aged either seven or eight and 4/5 were aged exactly eight.
- Previous Distance Form – 8/10 had a Chase win over 3m and 7/10 had 2+ Chase wins over 3m.
- Previous Chase Form – 10/10 had 2+ wins over fences, 9/10 had 3+ wins over fences and 6/10 had 5+ wins over fences.
- Previous Course Form - 3/10 had prior winning form at Kempton and 5/10 had run at Kempton previously.
- Previous Grade 1 Form - 8/10 had a prior Grade 1 success with 7/10 being Grade 1 winners over fences.
- Rating - 9/9 were rated 160+ with an average rating of 165 (Thistlecrack had no rating, so not the full 10)
- Seasonal Form – 10/10 had a prior run that season, but only 5/10 had a win.
- Location – 7/10 were UK-trained but 3/4 were trained in Ireland
- Favourites - Only 2/10 were sent off as favourite.
- Experience - 9/10 had 6+ runs over fences and 6/10 had 10+ runs over fences.
Interesting stats and a fun fact
Although not classed strictly as trends, these are all useful things to know about.
- Trainer
- Paul Nicholls has won 4/10 and is the most successful trainer of all time with 13 wins. However, he does not have a runner this year.
- Jockeys
- Harry Cobden has won 2/10 renewals. He rides Il Est Francais this time, but every other jockey in the last 10 years was unique. Ruby Walsh has the most all time wins with five recorded, all of which were aboard the late great Kauto Star.
- Sires
- All nine individual winners of the last ten renewals were sired by a different horse.
- Fun Fact
- In 1937 Southern Hero became the oldest winner of the King George VI Chase, at the grand old age of 12!
2025 Entries and Betting Odds
At the time of writing, the 2025 King George VI Chase contenders are:
- Gaelic Warrior @ 5/2
- Jango Baie @ 3/1
- Fact To File @ 7/2
- The Jukebox Man @ 6/1
- Djelo @ 12/1
- Banbridge @ 14/1
- Il Est Francais @ 16/1
- Croke Park @ 100/1
- Master Chewy @ 150/1
Trend Analysis
When exploring the trends for a race, you should highlight the horses that tick all of the right boxes, but also list those who fail on multiple points.
Horses to consider based on the trends:
- Gaelic Warrior
- Ticks almost all of the boxes here. He lacks Kempton experience, but only 5/10 had any, so that’s not overly important. The other “negative” is that he is the market favourite, and only 2/10 favourites have won, but he doesn’t know his price…
- Banbridge
- The only real negative is his age (nine - Ideal is seven or eight). The only other negative is that he was beaten on his prior start but it is most important that he’s had a run, which he has. His win in the race last year is an eye-catching positive too as he is tried, tested and proven.
- Fact To File
- Similar to Banbridge, he has no prior Kempton form and was beaten on his prior start. However, that was only by a neck. He also only had five wins over fences whereas 6/10 had more than five wins over fences. That said, 10/10 had two or more wins over fences and 9/10 had three or more, so this is not a major negative, more nit picking.
- Djelo
- Like the previous three horses, Djelo has no previous form at Kempton. More worryingly, he has never won a Grade 1, and is only rated 164. However, he meets the need to be 160+, just falling a little short of the 165 average for the last 10 renewals.
Horses to avoid based on the trends:
- Croke Park
- Fails to meet several of the trends. He has only had three wins over fences, and seven total runs over fences. Croke Park has no previous form at Kempton, he is only rated 156, and has been beaten on both of his starts this season.
- Master Chewy
- Fails to meet four of the trends. He has no wins over 3m, he has only had three wins over fences, he has never won at Grade 1 level, and he has been beaten on both prior starts this season.
- Il Est Francais
- Has just four wins over fences, he is only rated 163, he was beaten on his sole start this season, and he has only had nine runs over fences in total. There are no major negatives, for Ile Est Francais, but there are multiple minor ones.
- Jango Baie
- His age is a negative, as he is only a six-year-old, when the ideal is seven or eight years. Jango Baie also has no experience over 3m, only three wins over fences, and no previous Kempton form.
Betting Analysis - Who is the most interesting at the current odds?
Last but not least, here is my analysis of the current betting market for this year’s King George VI Chase:
- Gaelic Warrior
is a worthy favourite. He comes out best based on the trends, he is the highest rated, and he comes here in winning form. He deserves his place at the top of the market, and is surely the one they need to beat.
- Banbridge
is a live outsider - Although at nine he is older than ideal, and was beaten on his last start this season, Banbridge ticks all of the other boxes. Also, he is proven over C&D, having won the 2024 renewal of this race, making him look overpriced at 14/1.
- Jango Baie
has a lot of question marks for a second favourite priced at 3/1. His age and lack of experience over staying trips is a big concern, especially at the price. I’d take him on!
Based on the trends and the current odds, I’d be leaning towards a bet on Banbridge, and avoiding Jango Baie.
We have already backed
The Jukebox Man
antepost at 20/1. He is a C&D winner, and just lacks experience and a high enough rating. That said, he has excuses as he was injured, so he hasn’t had as much time as the others to fulfill his potential.
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