In this guide I’ll be looking closely at the Welsh Grand National trends. I’ve worked my way back through the last 10 renewals of the race to find out what works, or what doesn’t work, to help you identify the potential 2025 winner!
If you’re new to my content, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert here at Betting.co.uk. Most of my articles contain
free horse racing tips, either for a race on the day, or antepost, but I also publish different types of content including educational guides and big race trends articles. In addition to this one, you’ll find another that focuses on
King George VI Chase trends.
I have also published a
Welsh Grand National Legends
article that looks back at previous renewals of the race, and highlights the three best performances of the 21st century. And last, but not least, I have also produced a similar article covering
King George VI Chase Legends, which again looks back at the last twenty five years. You certainly won’t be short of Christmas reading this year.
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Why do we look at trends and how do they help us?
The reason it’s helpful to look at trends for races like the Welsh Grand National is to reduce a large field of horses down to a list of just a few. Trends from previous years highlight key points, while helping you to eliminate random results and/or anomalies.
In any racing, but particularly so with a race with the size and complexity of the Welsh Grand National, you will occasionally get freak results like big-priced winners, completely unexposed horses, or even a wildcard trainer.
However, the best thing to do is to exclude those, and to focus on the recurring factors. Below I’ve collated some stats based on the last 10 renewals of the race.
Key Trends
Here are the key trends for the Welsh Grand National with data from the last 10 years:
- Age - 7/10 winners were aged between six and nine.
- Weight - 7/10 winners carried 10st 10lb or less, with 6/10 winners carrying 10st 6lb or less.
- Previous Distance Form – 10/10 winners had at least one Chase win over 3m, 7/10 winners had 2+ and 6/10 had 3+.
- Previous Chase Form – 10/10 winners had one previous Chase win, 7/10 had 3+ Chase wins.
- Previous Course Form - 9/10 winners had run at Chepstow previously and 6/10 had won at Chepstow previously.
- Rating - 8/10 winners were rated 145 or lower with 6/10 winners rated 140 or lower - Average rating of 139.5.
- Prior Run That Season - 10/10 winners had a prep run and 8/10 had 2+ prep runs.
- Location – 9/10 winners were UK-trained
- Favourites - Only 4/10 winners were sent off as favourite.
- Experience - 10/10 had 3+ prior Chase runs, 9/10 had 5+ and 7/10 had 9+.
Interesting statistics and a fun fact
Whilst not helpful trends for identifying the 2025 Welsh Grand National winner, these are some interesting statistics and a fun fact: -
- Trainer
- Colin Tizzard trained 2/10 winners and the remaining eight trainers were all unique. Incidentally, Colin’s son Joe runs Rock My Way in this year’s renewal. The all time best trainer is Martin Pipe who recorded a total of five wins in the race.
- Jockeys
- Each of the last 10 winners have been ridden by a different jockey. The jockey with the most all-time wins is Peter Scudamore, who has clocked up a total of four.
- Sires
- All of the last 10 winners were sired by different horses.
- Fun Fact
- In 1983 the race was won by Burrough Hill Lad, who went on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup less than three months later.
2025 Entries and Betting Odds
The contenders for the 2025 Welsh Grand National are:
- Jubilee Express @ 5/1
- Git Maker @ 7/1
- Mr Vango @ 8/1
- Rock My Way @ 8/1
- Haiti Couleurs @ 9/1
- O’Connell @ 9/1
- Collectors Item @ 12/1
- Intense Raffles @ 14/1
- Dom Of Mary @ 16/1
- Deafening Silence @ 20/1
- Nassalam @ 25/1
- Uncle Bert @ 25/1
- Hung Jury @ 33/1
- Livin On Luco @ 33/1
- Monbeg Genius @ 33/1
- Where It All Began @ 33/1
- Tanganyika @ 40/1
- De Legislator @ 50/1
- Beaufort Scale @ 66/1
- Holokea @ 66/1
- Onethreefivenotout @ 66/1
- Pats Fancy @ 66/1
Trend Analysis
I have applied each of the 22 runners to the trends to see how they fared and I’m subsequently able to advise on a few horses to consider and a few horses to avoid based on the results.
Horses to consider based on the trends:
- Jubilee Express
@ 5/1 - He meets every trend, he has a lovely racing weight of 10st 3lb, he’s 2lb well in, and horses who win the trial have a great record of going on to win the Welsh Grand National.
- Collectors Item
@ 12/1 - He also meets all of the trends, his form ties in with Jubilee Express, and he has a 4lb weight swing for a two and a half length defeat in the trial. As touched upon already, trial form often carries through to the Welsh Grand National.
- Livin On Luco
@ 33/1 - He also meets all of the trends, and while he doesn’t have a ton of experience, he proved himself over a marathon trip last time out, and there could be more to come from this progressive type. At a big price, he’s a real eye-catcher!
Horses to avoid based on the trends:
- Mr Vango
@ 8/1 - He is rated 152 and is subsequently set to carry 11st 11lb, which doesn’t bode well on the trends front. He also has no form at Chepstow, which is a concern too. There are more than enough negatives to oppose Mr Vango, given his price and position in the market.
- Intense Raffles
@ 14/1 - This horse fares worst of all on the trends. He is rated 155 and subsequently carries top weight of 12st. He also has no course form here at Chepstow, he’s Irish-trained, and he hasn’t been placed so far this season.
- Uncle Bert
@ 25/1 - Finally, I would also give Uncle Bert a miss. He has no Chase wins over 3m, which is a concern, although he has won a 3m Hurdles race. Due to his lack of experience over staying trips, and the fact that he has only had four unplaced runs over fences, I feel that getting involved with Uncle Bert could prove costly.
Betting Analysis - At the current prices, who is the most interesting?
When looking at the trends side by side, and the position of the runners in the market, the following horses stand out for me:
- Jubilee Express
looks rock solid. He has seen plenty of money and currently sits at the top of the market at a price of 5/1, which is clearly well deserved. If you like Jubilee Express, you should also have a look at Collectors Item, due to the linked form. He also meets all of the trends and he’s priced at a very reasonable 12/1.
- Livin On Luco
is a live outsider who is worth a look at 33/1. For a horse to meet all of the trends and be priced at 33/1 is certainly eye-catching and appealing. He does lack experience, but on the flip side, he’s unexposed and has a ton of potential. With inexperience comes risks but at his current price, it’s potentially a risk worth taking.
- Mr Vango
is currently near the top of the market at 8/1, which means that he needs to be scrutinised firmly. With his rating and the weight he will carry, it feels like an awfully big ask. Although it’s not unusual to see some big weight carrying performances in the Welsh Grand National, the trends suggest things are less likely to go his way. Throwing in his complete lack of course form further fuels the concerns.
Taking account of the information supplied by the trends, and the way the market currently shapes up, I’d be keen on Collectors Item (12/1) and Livin On Luco (33/1) but I would avoid Mr Vango (8/1).
I have already put up Nassalam as an
antepost selection for the Welsh Grand National, but unfortunately it’s not looking very promising for him on the going front. When I originally wrote the article, Chepstow was expecting around 53mm of rain by Christmas, but sadly they have only received a fraction of that.
The ground is currently Soft/Good to Soft and I fear that won’t be testing enough for Nassalam. Even more so when there is no further rainfall expected between now and the race, which could see his chances scuppered.
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