Key Points
- The market is getting better at finding the right horses, so listen to it!
- Younger horses are coming to the fore, be wary of the older ones
- The classier horses are coming out on top - consider those higher up the weights
A look at the Grand National trends ahead of the 2025 renewal
In this article, I’ll be looking at some Grand National trends for you. For this, I have gone back through the last 25 renewals to find out what works, what doesn’t work, and which factors are changing, to help you identify the potential 2025 winner!
By the way, I am yet to produce any ante post selections for the 2025 Aintree Festival, but there may be some coming shortly. At the very least, I will be providing content for each of the three days of Aintree, which extends from Thursday 3rd April to Saturday 5th April, so keep your eyes peeled for those.
Why do we look at trends and how do they help us?
The reason it’s helpful to look at trends for races like the Grand National is to reduce a large field of horses down to a shortlist of just a few. Trends from previous years highlight key points, while helping you to eliminate random results and/or anomalies.
In any racing, but particularly so with a race with the size and complexity of the Grand National, you are going to get freak results whether that be big priced winners, completely unexposed horses or even a wildcard trainer.
But the best thing to do is to exclude those, and to focus on results that keep happening time and time again. However, it is quite clear that a number of things have changed during the most recent years, so I’ll also be exploring those factors too.
Trainers, Owners & Jockeys are probably not the way to go
Across the last 25 years, we have seen an array of different owners, trainers and jockeys winning this prestigious prize.
- Only Gordon Elliott has won the Grand National three times during this period, and only Willie Mullins, Lucinda Russell and Donald McCain have got their hands on the prize twice.
- No jockey has managed three wins in the last 25 years, but Ruby Walsh, Leighton Aspell, Derek Fox, and Davy Russell have all managed it twice - Davy Russell with back to back renewals on the same horse - the legendary Tiger Roll.
- It is a similar story for owners - JP McManus, Gigginstown House Stud and Trevor Hemmings have all won it three times, but nobody has managed more than that in the last 25 years. Although perhaps it's worth noting that JP McManus has won two of the last four renewals, with Minella Times in 2021 and I Am Maximus in 2024.
With such limited numbers across the last quarter of a century, I would suggest that there are other factors that would serve you better when trying to find the winner than simply who trains, owns, or rides the horse.
I think this largely reflects the complexity and depth of the race, but it also helps to be JP McManus, who fires plenty at it!
Age & Experience is an ever-changing factor
Something that caught my eye while analysing the data from the last 25 years is that the age of the winner has gradually reduced.
| Timeline |
Average age of winner |
| 25 years |
9.32 |
| 20 years |
9.30 |
| 15 years |
9.06 |
| 10 years |
8.50 |
| 5 years |
8.20 |
For additional context, in the 14 years prior to the above, 10 out of 14 winners were aged 10 or older, with three 11-year-olds and one 12-year-old winning the race. This all suggests it is becoming a younger horse’s game and I’d be cautious about backing older horses (10+).
In a similar way, a lot of experience-related statistics are reducing. The average number of runs during the season, overall Chase starts, and overall Chase wins have all reduced. In addition the number of horses that have won over 2m 7f+ previously has also declined.
This links with the reducing age of the winners, and all of this points towards the race becoming easier, which we know is the case from some of the changes made over the previous few years.
Class & Proven Ability are coming to the fore
Whilst the age and experience required to win the race is reducing, the class and proven ability angle is trending in the opposite direction. So while younger and less experienced horses are winning the race, it is a higher quality of horse that is winning as well. Again this likely ties into the race becoming an easier challenge over time, and particularly so in recent years.
| Timeline
|
Average Rating |
| 25 years |
139.2 |
| 20 years |
139.6 |
| 15 years |
149.0 |
| 10 years |
149.8 |
| 5 years |
151.4 |
No horse rated higher than 160 has won any of the last 25 renewals of the Aintree Grand National. That said, I do wonder if that trend might be broken this year, considering that two of the top five in the market, I Am Maximus and Hewick, are rated above 160. It is also interesting to see that the number of horses coming into the race with Graded wins under their belts is increasing, with 7 of the last 10 winners ticking this box.
Another statistic that leans towards better horses is weight carried. Despite the fact that 17 of the last 25 winners have carried less than 10st 13lb, two winners out of the last five carried 11st 5lb and 11st 6lb respectively.
It is also worth noting that Tiger Roll and Corach Rambler both came into the race 8lb and 10lb respectively well in, after they both had wins at the Cheltenham Festival. Due to the early release of the Grand National weights, they effectively went off at lower weights than they typically would have.
The winners are becoming easier to find with the market highlighting them
Another particularly interesting point is that winners are becoming easier to find. In the 10 years from 2009 to 2018, the average price of the Grand National winner was in excess of 33/1. However, the average over the last five years has dropped to just 16/1, and that includes Noble Yeats winning at 50/1.
In fact, four of the last five winners have been sent off at 11/1 or shorter, with three of the last five at single figure prices, and Tiger Roll in 2019 as short as 4/1.
In a similar way, there were only six winning favourites in the last 25 years. And in some renewals there were multiple favourites - notably the 2004 renewal, where there were four co-favourites and none of them won!
However, in the last five renewals, three favourites have won. Of the two that failed to win, one actually came second, so four of the last five favourites have finished in the first two places.
Other interesting statistics to consider
As well as those mentioned above, there are also a few other statistics to bear in mind.
The British/Irish battle
The Grand National has seen an increasing domination by Irish trainers, which is perhaps just a sign of the times with the general Irish influence over the sport.
- The British/Irish split has been pretty level over the past 20 years (11 to 9) and 25 years (12 to 13)
- Over the last 15 renewals Britain is ahead (9 to 6)
- The last 10 years have seen the Irish take six victories, landing all but one win in the last five renewals
Previous runs
The relevance of a recent run doesn’t appear to have quite as much importance as it once did.
23 of the last 25 winners had run in the previous 60 days, but in the last seven years, there were two winners who didn’t have the benefit of a previous run.
So, while I wouldn’t be rushing to back one that hasn’t had a recent run, I wouldn’t be rushing to rule them out either, assuming they tick all of the other boxes, of course.
The Cheltenham influence
Another interesting statistic is that more and more winners are coming to the Grand National straight from the Cheltenham Festival.
- Over the last 25 years, nine winners had their previous run at the Cheltenham Festival.
- Eight of those were in the last 20 years.
- Seven of the last 15, six of the last 10, and three of the last five winners have come straight from Cheltenham.
However, it is worth noting that dual-Grand National winner Tiger Roll came straight from the Cheltenham Festival Cross Country race, so he may skew the statistics slightly.
And he isn’t alone - Corach Rambler came from the Ultima, and Noble Yeats came from the Stayers’ Hurdle.
But this year specifically, one key factor that could throw all of this up in the air, which is the close proximity between the Cheltenham Festival and the Grand National this time, with just over three weeks between the two events.
So who is on the shortlist based on these trends?
Now that I’ve been through all of the relevant facts and figures that cover 25 years of Grand National performances, where does that leave us in terms of the 2025 renewal?
Top of the trends chart
Ironically, the runner who conforms to most of the trends is also the market favourite - Stumptown. Here are his stats:
- Current 8/1 favourite
- Eight years old
- Rated at 157
- Irish-trained by Gavin Cromwell
- He won the Cross Country at the Cheltenham Festival
- He is following the same path as dual-winner Tiger Roll
Next best
Interestingly, the other four of the top five in the market would also tick plenty of boxes:
- I Am Maximus and Hewick fit the class/proven ability angles, as well as being Irish-trained.
- Hewick ticks the ‘winning form this season’ box, as he won at Thurles last time out.
- Intense Raffles and Iroko are in the ‘younger and less experienced’ category but have proven Graded ability.
Notable mentions
Away from the top of the market, a couple that would interest me are Kandoo Kid and Minella Cocooner. Both fit the right sort of age at 9, they also have strong quality form including Graded form in the book. They are rated 152 and 157 which seems to be the sweet spot between having class but not having too much weight on their backs.
They both appear to have plenty of proven stamina, whilst also being unexposed at the Grand National trip. Both should enjoy the better ground conditions predicted for this year’s Grand National.
Minella Cocooner also has the advantage of being Irish-trained, and by none other than the master that is Willie Mullins. At prices of 20/1 and 25/1, respectively, I think they both represent lovely each way value, if you want one away from the top of the market.
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