Key Points
- Minor blip will be quickly forgotten for Blues
- Shrews struggle to find the back of the net
- 13/10 tip to get Birmingham onside
Second placed Birmingham make the trip to Shropshire to face a Shrewsbury side bottom of the table with just 8 points to their name from 15 games.
The Blues currently occupy the 2nd automatic promotion spot in League One and are only 2 points behind leaders Wycombe with a game in hand after gaining 30 points from their 13 fixtures this term.
Things couldn’t be more opposite for The Shrews who reside in 24th place, are 6 points from safety and have the worst goal difference in League One heading into the weekend. Newly appointed manager Gareth Ainsworth inherits a side who have lost 5 of their 7 games at The New Meadow this term.
They face Chris Davies’ Blues, who have been victorious 4 times already in their 6 games on the road this campaign. The sides have already met earlier in the season in the EFL Trophy, where Birmingham thrashed The Shrews 4-0 in their own backyard.
Ideal fixture for Blues bounce-back
After drawing the last 2 League One matches, Davies’ Birmingham have a perfect opportunity to get back on track against a side who have lost 11 of their 15 fixtures in the league already.
The Shropshire side have managed just 1 win in their last 14 games in all competitions and were dumped out of the FA Cup earlier this month by League Two Salford in what has been a disastrous campaign so far.
The Blues have the joint-best defence away from home, conceding only 6 goals on their travels. Meanwhile, Shrewsbury haven’t won at home since the end of August and have lost their last 4 matches without even scoring a goal.
Where the wild things are
Gareth Ainsworth, nicknamed the ‘Wild Thing’, will no doubt try to bring a fight and desire back to the club in his own enthusiastic way. However, he faces a real uphill task to turn the fortunes around of a side who struggle to score goals let alone win matches.
Ainsworth, only in the hot-seat for a week, faces arguably the toughest test to make his managerial debut against The Blues.
The visitors have only conceded more than 1 goal in a game away from St. Andrew’s on one occasion. More importantly, Birmingham haven’t been beaten in the previous 7 games in all competitions since losing to Charlton in early October, their only defeat in 14 matches.
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Ainsworth faces an uphill task with Shrews
With just 13 goals scored, the joint 3rd-lowest in the league, and only 5 of these being scored on home soil, the joint-lowest number along with Wigan, it’s no surprise Shrewsbury find themselves propping up the table. The Shrews have failed to score in a league-high 9 games this term, which is 60% of their fixtures and in 4 of their 7 games at The New Meadow.
Moreover, they have the joint-2nd worst defensive record, so face a long hard season ahead to turn things around. The lack of clean sheets, just 1 in 15 games, tells its own story and Davies’ Birmingham will be mindful of punishing their fragile backline on Saturday.
Stansfield the difference maker?
In Jay Stansfield and Alfie May, The Blues arguably have two of the best strikers in League One and in particular Stansfield looks too good to be playing at this level in my opinion.
With 5 goals in 13 appearances, May has also proved he is prolific again in the third tier. After successful spells at both Cheltenham and Charlton the last couple of campaigns, where he bagged 20 goals and 23 goals for each side respectively, May looks well on course to match that tally once more.
Stansfield’s record of goals per game is even better, with the 21-year-old notching 5 goals from only 8 appearances this term since his big-money move from Fulham in August and he is also the penalty taker for The Blues.
Both strikers have shown they can be the match-winner for The Blues already this season and I expect them to be too much to handle for Shrewsbury’s weak rearguard.
Blues to beat Shrews
In terms of the betting tip for this clash, it’s hard to deviate from an away win for Davies’ side come full-time. Exactly how best to bet that to get maximum value is the question. Firstly, the best-priced 2/5 with Coral just to win the match is overlooked in the search for a more working man’s price.
A creative way to play this could be through the Player to Score and Win market, the aforementioned Stansfield to be on the scoresheet and Birmingham to win is a general 11/8. However, given only 1 of his 5 League One goals has come away from home I can pass this one up too.
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Top tip: Birmingham win to nil at 13/10 with BoyleSports
I’m reluctant to take the Blues giving a handicap start as they’ll simply be happy with getting back to winning ways and there could be an element of improvement from the Shrews with the new manager starting to settle in. I think that tipping Birmingham to win to nil which is best priced at 13/10 with
BoyleSports
gives the best value route into the game.
The extreme lack of goals from Shrewsbury is the main reason for believing Birmingham won’t be too troubled defensively and should be able to keep a clean sheet. Ainsworth’s side have the 2nd lowest xG in the league in front of their own fans and have also lost more games at home than any other side.
I expect Birmingham to dispatch the Shropshire side with a shut-out to boot and continue their march towards automatic promotion back to The Championship.
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Shrewsbury vs Birmingham Best Bet
- Market:
To win to nil
- Selection:
Birmingham
- Odds:
13/10
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
BoyleSports
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