Key Points
- Positives to take from last two outings for Saints
- Everton’s expectations might not suit
- Home side the value in a tight encounter
Bottom of the table and winless Southampton take on an Everton side just 4 places above them in the PL table after 9 games.
Saints lost narrowly 1-0 away at Manchester City last weekend and performances have been encouraging for Russell Martin’s side in recent weeks despite their failure to taste victory since being promoted back to the top-flight.
Saints have been in Carabao Cup action this midweek, as they defeated Stoke 3-2 thanks to a late James Bree goal and that secured their first win at St. Mary’s in any competition this season.
For Everton, it’s been another start to a season in a similar pattern as to the last couple of years, with Sean Dyche’s team struggling for form at the wrong end of the table. The Toffees have won just 2 of their 9 games so far and only just avoided defeat last time out against Fulham thanks to an underserved injury-time equaliser by Beto.
Improving Saints growing in belief
There’s been a lot of criticism so far for Southampton and with just 1 point from a possible 27 available. Moreover,the fact they have scored the joint-lowest number of goals along with Crystal Palace, it would be easy to agree with them.
However, this doesn’t tell the whole story for Martin’s side, with his Saints putting in impressive performances recently away at Arsenal and Manchester City and for the first hour against Leicester where they led 2-0.
They ultimately lost that which would have hurt but the Man City performance (for which they did gain plaudits) came after that, showing they’d put it behind them.
The win then in the cup (midweek) with at least half of their starting 11 will also be a big positive for confidence. Another positive display against Dyche’s team could just kickstart Southampton’s season to a point after a terribly poor run of results.
Toffees struggling on travels, Saints nervous at home
Dyche and his side have already shown themselves to be a poor travelling team so far this term. The Toffees have only won 1 of their 4 away games and it’s not that long ago they began the campaign with 4 defeats in a row, conceding 13 goals during this time.
It would be fair to say things have certainly tightened up since the opening 4 games, but Everton have still only won 2 matches all term and find themselves struggling for any kind of consistent form to push on this season.
A tight and cagey affair on the cards
I envisage a tight and perhaps even cagey game when these two out-of-form sides clash at St. Mary’s but there is one team who will dominate possession and that’s the hosts.
Everton have won just once away from home this term, away at Ipswich, and have conceded in all but 2 games so far so could be prime opponents for Southampton to face.
Southampton clearly like playing out from the back and should be good enough to play through Everton if they are pressed, but it’s more likely they’ll have it fairly easy along the backline.
Could nervous energy get to Saints?
Head coach Russell Martin has already alluded to the nervous energy and atmosphere the Southampton fans have shown at home this season. This is a stark contrast to their Championship campaign where they were free-scoring with 54 goals in front of their own fans and won 15 times on home soil.
Saints have won just 2 times at home in 23 matches and will be desperate to break this record and get off the mark with a win in their 10th attempt this season.
Value with Southampton
As I see this being a close and tense match, it’s quite conceivable that one goal could decide the game. When I’m expecting a low total but favouring a particular side, I like to at least have a dig through the First/Last Scorer markets.
Cameron Archer first goalscorer at 15/2 with bet365
Cameron Archer who is the biggest goal threat for the Saints is best priced at 15/2 with
bet365
to strike either first or last. Given both teams lack of goals this season, Saints with 6 and Everton have 10, a 1-0 scoreline wouldn’t be overly surprising.
He warrants a small play as I made him more of an 11/2 chance.
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Draw no bet: Southampton at 9/10 with Unibet
Sticking with the theory that Southampton are value here, I’ve settled on the Draw no Bet market with that little insurance protecting against a draw.
Southampton, the home side, are best priced at 9/10 with
Unibet
and that looks just about good enough for me. As mentioned previously, despite only gaining 1 point all term, Saints have been getting closer to that elusive first victory, particularly at home.
Martin’s side led against Ipswich until a 95th-minute equaliser denied them. Also against Leicester at St. Mary’s, they were cruising 2 goals up, and should have finished the game off before a late comeback from The Foxes dashed their hopes.
I feel this will turn sooner rather than later for Southampton and what better way to grab your first win of the season against an out-of-form and inconsistent Everton team hovering just above the relegation zone.
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Bet £10 Get £40 in Bonuses.
Southampton vs Everton Best Bet
- Market:
Draw No Bet
- Selection:
Southampton
- Odds:
9/10
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
Unibet
- Market:
First Goalscorer
- Selection:
Cameron Archer
- Odds:
15/2
- Stake:
0.25pt
- Bookie:
bet365
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