Southampton v Ipswich Betting Tips: More misery for last year’s play-off winners

Southampton take on Ipswich at St. Mary’s this Saturday as both sides look for their first victory of the campaign since being promoted from the Championship last season. Russell Martin’s side have lost all 4 PL matches so far, conceding an average of 2 goals per game and are yet to keep a clean sheet.

Despite Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich yet to taste victory in their first season back in the top-flight since 2001/2002, they have at least gained two draws from their opening 4 fixtures, including last weekend’s impressive 0-0 result away at Brighton.

Early season six-pointer?

Both The Saints and Tractor Boys have struggled for goals so far, with Southampton finding the net only once and are yet to score at home. As for Ipswich, they have scored twice in the PL so far, a far cry from the 87 and 92 goals they amassed respectively on the way to promotion last campaign.

Even though it’s only game day 5 in the campaign, it does feel this could be a crucial game for both teams as they look to gain a bit more confidence and put a stamp on their Premier League status with a maiden victory.

Both managers have stuck to their philosophy

It’s clear both managers have stuck with their philosophy of how they want to play football after making the step up, with both playing an open and attractive style built out from the defence. Southampton, in particular, have stuck to playing a possession-rich game.

The Saints have averaged 62.5% possession in their 4 Premier League games so far but a lack of cutting edge in front of goal and a shaky defence is what has cost them. This reminds me of Vincent’s Kompany’s Burnley last season and could prove to be Southampton’s downfall as results have shown so far they have struggled to gain any points from playing in this manner.

Pressure already building on home side

I feel the nervousness from the Southampton fans, particularly in their two home games so far, could get to their players. This is something that manager Martin already alluded to after the defeat to Nottingham Forest in their opening fixture at home.

Southampton have won just 2 of their last 21 home fixtures in the PL, losing 14 of these, so clearly confidence will be low heading into the crunch clash. Of these 21 games, Saints have conceded a staggering 41 goals and have only scored 19 times. Therefore, if they were to fall behind I can’t see them coming back to win the game.

Ipswich to try and capitalise on nervy hosts

That atmosphere and open backline is something McKenna’s Ipswich will be keen to try and capitalise on. His side will look to build on their solid and resolute performance at Brighton last time out and pick up a result in this one. With Leif Davis and Liam Delap, he has a couple of genuine Premier League quality players to attack the Saints’ weaknesses.

Who registers their first win?

For me, although Ipswich have only gained 2 points from their opening 4 games they’ve been considerably more impressive than Southampton. They’ve had two matches against top opponents in Liverpool and Manchester City, so they have had as tough a start as any.

Against Fulham and Brighton however, they have more than matched the opposition to claim two confidence-boosting points. So I expect them to at least avoid defeat on Saturday as they could look to score early to dent an already fragile Saints side.

Assessing the betting markets

When assessing the betting markets for this one, the odds of an Ipswich win at 23/10 with Unibet caught my eye. Given the fact I see them as the more likely side to win in 90 minutes, there is certainly value in staking this.

Factors such as the home crowd creating a nervous tension and psychologically The Saints struggling to both score and win at home in the PL are evidence for reasonable argument on an Ipswich outright win.

Another betting area of interest looks to be the ‘team to score first’ market, with Ipswich best priced at 5/4 with bet365 to strike the first goal. Given the aforementioned creaky Southampton defence and their rate of conceding goals coupled with the fact in the two games Ipswich have scored in they have done so first, this is something that may interest some.

Today’s tip: Ipswich-Draw Double Chance at 8/11 with Star Sports

However, a slightly more conservative approach is my selection for this game and the ‘Double Chance’ market is where I’ve settled. Ipswich-Draw I believe holds plenty of value at 8/11 with Star Sports.

As I have mentioned, Southampton have shown a lack of cutting edge in their games so far despite dominating possession, with just 5 shots on target in the two home fixtures against Forest and United and scoring 0 goals in these games, conceding 4 in the process.

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Southampton vs Ipswich Best Bet

• Market: Double Chance
• Selection: Ipswich-Draw
• Odds: 8/11
• Stake: 1pt
• Bookie: Star Sports

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