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The meeting of two sides who both gained promotion from The Championship last season takes place as Russell Martin’s Saints play host to Steve Cooper’s Leicester at St. Mary’s on Saturday as the Premier League returns following the international break.
Southampton find themselves languishing down second-bottom in the table, with just a single point from their 7 games this term. Martin’s side are the lowest scorers in the PL with just 4 goals and have shipped the joint 2nd-highest number of goals so far with 15.
Leicester are only marginally better off in 15th, although they have won 1 and drawn 3 of their 7 matches played and they claimed their first victory of the campaign with a 1-0 win at home to Bournemouth before the international break.
Both sides will see this as a realistic chance of 3 points as they try and stabilise themselves in the top tier once again following promotion and aim to acclimatise back to the elite level.
It’s safe to say The Saints and The Foxes are still adjusting to playing at a higher level following promotion last season with any kind of form still proving elusive, particularly for Southampton.
The Saints were the 3rd top scorers in The Championship during the 2023/2024 season, scoring just two fewer than opponents Leicester (who managed 89 goals), but finding the net has turned out to be very difficult so far in the PL for Martin’s team.
Southampton have failed to score in 3 of their 7 games and when they have managed to find the net they have never scored more than 1 goal in any game. Despite Leicester managing to score in every PL game this term, again they have only been capable of scoring more than 1 goal in a match on 2 different occasions.
With only 1 clean sheet between them all season, it’s keeping the back door closed which has been an issue for both teams. Martin’s side have conceded in all 7 of their PL matches and have shipped 3 goals in a match 3 separate times.
As for Cooper’s Leicester, they have kept just the 1 clean sheet all season and that was against Bournemouth last time out. The Foxes have conceded 2 or more goals 4 different times already this term so defensive woes have been a trend throughout the campaign.
Despite those defensive frailties, there is an argument that this game could remain low-scoring. Given the value and added need for 3 points against a potential relegation rival, it wouldn’t surprise me if the game becomes rather cagey with neither manager wanting to lose the match, especially as the clock ticks towards full-time.
Some fans and critics might be calling this match a ‘’must-win’. That’s particularly true for Southampton who desperately need a first victory. However, I feel it’s more of a must not lose as a defeat could well be damning for either side and especially The Saints who would then be 8 points behind The Foxes if they lost.
Southampton came within seconds of claiming a win in their last home match to the other promoted side Ipswich before a 95th-minute equaliser denied them and I think a similar outcome could be in store this Saturday.
Looking at the range of betting markets on offer for the clash on the South Coast, I can get behind the theory of backing Both Teams to Score Yes, with Star Sports offering the best industry price of 8/13 on both defences to be breached.
Given the aforementioned inability from both sides to keep clean sheets and Leicester’s stat of scoring in every match so far this does look tempting. However, with Russell Martin’s Saints lacking goals and only managing to score 1 goal in their 3 games on home soil, this is enough to make me steer clear of this bet at the price.
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I think at a much bigger price and ultimately with a strong desire to not lose the match, the draw makes plenty of appeal. The sides could end up cancelling each other out and 5/2 with Unibet is plenty bigger than the 2/1 that my model came up with.
Given that it is two newly promoted sides playing each other and most likely potential relegation rivals, a draw wouldn’t be the worst result in the world for either team.
In such cases the frequency of the draw naturally increases and ultimately there isn’t a great deal between the two teams with Leicester being the slightly superior 11 but playing away from home, it all points towards a very tight affair. The fact the draw is the biggest price of the three potential outcomes doesn’t seem right and should be backed accordingly.
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