St Kilda v Essendon Betting Tips: Nightmare repeating for Bombers?

This is starting to look a little familiar. Essendon fans must be fearing a repeat of last season’s horror show where they found themselves in the 8 for a large part of the campaign only to falter late and slip out of finals. All while serving up two absolutely shocking performances to close the campaign.

The 126pt slamming against the Giants and 70pt touch-up at the hands of bitter rivals the Pies will live long in the memory. Hide behind the couch Bombers fans, this isn’t going to be an easy read!

Just how bad could it get?

I don’t quite foresee those kinds of losses coming but I see losses all the same. Losses that would take this team who less than 6 weeks ago were 3rd and have spent half the season in the top 4, out of the finals picture come September.

The Bombers’ form is rotten quite frankly, it’s 5 losses from the last 7 and the 2 wins came over West Coast and a heavily depleted Collingwood. A fortnight ago saw them touched up by a Melbourne team without their ruckman (Gawn) or their gun midfielder (Petracca). It was a disastrous final five minutes last week which saw them lose at home to 14th-placed Adelaide.

No fear or expectation makes the Saints very dangerous

This weekend brings a challenge in the shape of St Kilda who are 15th on the ladder. While finals are out of the question, it’s clear to see that the cues aren’t in the rack whatsoever. Ross Lyon has made a point that they are playing out every game, full-on as a prep for next season where they aim to play finals.

Evidence of them playing the season out has been seen over their last 7 games with 4 wins picked up including a victory over flag favourites Sydney. Even 2 of their 3 defeats had merit, going down by 2 points to Port Adelaide and losing by a few goals at the Gabba are nothing to be ashamed of.

The hunt for value bets

So by now, my intentions should be clear, I want to take Essendon on in some way. The next part of the puzzle for bettors is to decide in which market they have the best value bet to do so with.

The winner market

The winner market sees the Saints a best-priced 11/10 with Betway to continue the misery for the Bombers. That can be increased to 6/4 if you back them to win by 1-39pts with Bet365 which would surely be the only way they could do it.

Brad Scott’s Dons have looked shaky but not shaky enough to go down by 40+ points to this St Kilda team.

1-39 pts at 6/4 with Bet365

Of those 2 bets, the 6/4 for 1-39 pts at Bet365 is the pick but there is another play that makes equal appeal. That is to take out the result from the equation but back that it will be a fiercely competitive affair that won’t be separated by many points either way.

St Kilda over their last 10 games have had 6 games separated by 19 points or less. Essendon has had 5 from 10 with another being a 20-point margin.

The match total here is set at only 160.5 which is extremely low for a game played under the roof at Marvel, largely down to the perception of St Kilda games being low-scoring. If that total line is accurate and the game is as balanced as I think it is, a winning margin of less than 20 for either team looks a good deal better than a 50/50 proposition.

Tri Bet 19.5 market at Betfair

So the Evens at Betfair Sportsbook for Either Team by 19 or less in the Tri Bet 19.5 market warrants a bet. In the rare case of a draw, this bet will be settled as a winner.

For those of you without an existing Betfair Sportsbook account, there’s a great welcome offer available, as you can get £30 in free bets when you sign up today.

St. Kilda vs Essendon Best Bets

Market: Winning Margin
Selection: St Kilda 1-39pts
Odds: 6/4
Stake: 0.5pt
Bookie: Bet365

Market: Tri Bet 19.5
Selection: Either Team by 19 or Less
Odds: Evens
Stake: 0.75pt
Bookie: Betfair Sportsbook

🌎 Follow TheFund elsewhere!

Instagram: thefund.bet

Telegram:
thefundbet