Key Points
- Regular season winners should have no fear
- Top 4 finish presents big advantage
- The Lizard at big odds for best on ground!
The big dance, the final fling, immortality day…however you want to spin it, it’s here.
The AFL Grand Final takes place this weekend (Saturday 14:30 AEST) and it’s reasonable to assume the 100k spectator number will be flirted with. Both are interstate teams but both were originally Melbourne-based and the turnout will be special.
Hard to win from outside the 4
Since the AFL used the top 8 teams to play a final series, with a non-top 4 team required to win 4 finals consecutively to lift the flag (2000), only one team has won following a non-top 4 finish. That was the Western Bulldogs in 2016.
Clearly what Brisbane are facing is an almighty task. Add to that they are facing off against the regular season winner Sydney and they have a shot at doing something quite remarkable.
Those stats don’t particularly lead to strong expectations for their prospects.
The market though gives them a right chance, nearly 48% according to their 11/10 general price. So why would that be?
Well, on the most important metrics that Champion Data gathers, Brisbane shape up well. The way they score and defend puts them in the Premiership window according to many judges.
Well-rested vs battle-hardened?
The structure of the finals and the position of the post-regular season bye have meant that Sydney have played 2 games since the 25th of August.
Brisbane on the other hand have played 3. Their last 2 were particularly tight affairs requiring comebacks from considerable margins.
They have been staring down the barrel of defeat and pulled it out of the fire, clearly motivated by last season’s heartbreak on the biggest stage of all.
Amongst some of the most experienced players and coaches on the planet, it’s inconclusive. They’re split over whether they’d like the lighter physical load and less competitive nature of Sydney’s prep compared to the Lions’ more bruising but potentially sharpening run-in.
So many markets you’re spoilt for choice!
As you would expect, there are a plethora of markets to choose from for this showpiece event. Traditional markets like winner, total, winning margin and the ever-popular Norm Smith medal market.
The award is given out to the player adjudged best on ground in this game by a panel of 5 made up of former players and journalists. You then have markets like Total Team Behinds and Player Disposals to keep the betting juices flowing.
Full disclosure, I have bets from pre-season on Brisbane to win the lot at 5/1 but my tips below are not influenced by that (I’m not hedging).
Sydney to win at 39/50 with bet365
One of the top guys at Champion Data likes to say “I’ll let history guide me until history changes” or words to that effect.
With that in mind, I have to back Sydney at 39/50 with
bet365
given how infrequently any team has won it from outside the 4. Moreover, I have to factor in how Brisbane lost their highly important ruckman ‘The Big O’ during the prelim final.
These two teams can score in a hurry and have shown the ability to do so during their finals campaigns. With the weather set to be nice, I can’t really justify an unders bet which is where I would normally lean in Grand Finals.
bet365 welcome bonus:
Bet £10 & Get £30.
Value in the Norm Smith betting
So it’s slightly more exotic markets and prices I’ll put up, keep the stakes small on these two longer-priced bets in the Norm Smith market. Backing Sydney to win means we must take Sydney players in this market, as only a handful of players have won this while playing on the losing side.
Chad Warner at 7/1
First up is explosive
Chad Warner
who might well be the least likely of the three Sydney superstars to get tagged. His Brownlow polling of 23 votes with 4x 3 vote games shows when he is on, he breaks the game open for the Swans.
I’m happy to take him at 7/1 with
bet365
and think he makes more appeal than the favourite Heeney at 9/2.
Nick Blakey at 18/1
At a much bigger price, I’m happy to throw a dart at The Lizard. Nick Blakey playing off half-back (position that’s done well in Norm Smiths) is likely to see plenty of the ball.
If he plays like he did last week with 21 disposals and gives the Swans a springboard from defence, then he will be in the shake-up. If he could snag a goal and match that performance, it could well be enough.
Odds of 18/1 with
bet365
are very fair.
bet365 welcome bonus:
Bet £10 & Get £30.
Sydney v Brisbane Best Bets
- Market:
Winner
- Selections:
Sydney
- Odds:
39/50
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookmaker:
bet365
- Market:
Norm Smith Medalist
- Selections:
Chad Warner
- Odds:
7/1
- Stake:
0.25pt
- Bookmaker:
bet365
- Market:
Norm Smith Medalist
- Selections:
Nick Blakey
- Odds:
18/1
- Stake:
0.25pt
- Bookmaker:
bet365
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