ATP World Tour Finals Tips With 10bet
Turin will host the ATP Tour Finals for the fifth year in a row, with home favourite Jannik Sinner looking to defend his title.
As always, the tournament features the top eight players in the world, split into two groups of four. The top two from each group will progress to the semi-finals.
Group play begins on Sunday, 9th November, with the final scheduled for the following Sunday.
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Winner - Jannik Sinner (4/6)
World number one Jannik Sinner claimed the title last year without dropping a set. He arrives in Turin on a 13-match winning run, having captured the Six Kings Slam, Erste Bank Open, and Paris Masters. He also won in Beijing in October, making it four titles since his US Open defeat to Carlos Alcaraz, or five if you include the exhibition event in Saudi Arabia.
That loss to Alcaraz in New York proved a valuable lesson. Since then, Sinner has added more variety to his game, which has been evident in recent weeks. His use of drop shots and lobs in Paris, in particular, showed how complete his game has become.
The top two continue to push each other on, but while I often look for value at bigger prices, that doesn’t seem the right approach this week. With high stakes, plenty of motivation, and a full home crowd behind him - not to mention conditions that suited him perfectly last year - Sinner looks very tough to oppose.
One of the interesting trends in the Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry is how often public expectation proves wrong. Each time the majority strongly favour one, the other ends up taking the title. Alcaraz was the clear favourite with all
tennis betting sites
at Wimbledon, yet it was Sinner who beat him in the final.
The roles were reversed at the US Open, where Sinner was fancied to come out on top but was comfortably beaten by Alcaraz, who looked untouchable at Flushing Meadows.
On this occasion, Sinner is seen as the one to beat, and I’m backing him even at 4/6 with
10bet
– a much shorter price than I’d usually advise for a tournament outright. Alcaraz is the only player I can see challenging him, but the Spaniard still has his ankle strapped and has admitted he’s playing “with caution”.
Jimmy Connors Group Winner - Taylor Fritz (8/1)
By including the tournaments in Metz and Athens in the Race to Turin points tally, the ATP has created a headache for itself, with the full field still unconfirmed less than 24 hours before play begins.
Novak Djokovic’s indecision over whether to compete hasn’t helped, but for now he’s listed in the Jimmy Connors Group alongside Alcaraz, Taylor Fritz, and Alex de Minaur.
Alcaraz is as short as 2/9 to top the group, but given his ankle issue, his poor showing in Paris, and the fact he can still progress by finishing second, I’m keen to oppose him.
De Minaur went 0-3 here in 2024, while Fritz reached the final, so I’ll take the American. He’s likely to benefit from having played only four matches since returning from Saudi Arabia three weeks ago, with fatigue clearly affecting some of his recent efforts.
Conditions in Turin - where he reached the final last year - should suit him much better than Paris. A Djokovic withdrawal would only help his cause, as Fritz has never beaten the Serb, but at 8/1 I’m happy to take the chance either way.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Minaur - De Minaur +1.5 Set Handicap (Evens)
Although I’ve sided with Fritz to top the group, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing De Minaur elsewhere this week - he should perform far better than he did last year.
After winning in Washington in July, the Australian has put together a steady second half of the season, regularly reaching the latter stages of events and generally holding his own against the top two.
He faced Alcaraz in the Rotterdam final back in February, taking the match to a decider, and there’s surprisingly little between them statistically on indoor hard courts. Alcaraz may not have things all his own way here.
Alexander Zverev vs Ben Shelton - Over 10.5 Games in Set One (6/5)
Ben Shelton has made major progress this year, winning his first Masters 1000 title in Canada and earning a debut appearance at the ATP Tour Finals.
It’s been a more uneven season for Alexander Zverev, who has dealt with physical issues and suffered early exits at both Wimbledon and the US Open. Still, he’s reached the semi-finals in three of the last four Masters 1000 events.
Zverev holds a 4-0 record against Shelton, though that doesn’t tell the full story. Their most recent meeting came in Cincinnati, where Shelton was understandably fatigued after his run to the Toronto title the previous week. Another of Zverev’s wins came 7-6, 7-6 on grass, and a similarly tight match looks possible here.
Zverev has faced just one break point across their last three meetings, and with Shelton’s serve back to full strength after an injury layoff, breaks may again be hard to come by on Sunday evening.
