US Open Betting Tips

Men’s tennis, and particularly the outright betting landscape, has been accused of becoming stale in recent years, with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner streets ahead of the competition and leaving punters with few appealing ways into the Grand Slam markets.

That theory has been ripped up in 2026. Alcaraz has been absent from singles competition since April, while Sinner’s struggles in the Paris heat left the field wide open at Roland Garros. Now, the world number one will miss the US Open with a knee injury, while huge doubts surround Alcaraz as he returns to singles action at Flushing Meadows.

The Spaniard played alongside Serena Williams in the mixed doubles but looked nowhere near ready to defend his title over the next fortnight. His serve speed was well below its usual level, while his forehand also appeared tentative.

He must rank among the most opposable Grand Slam favourites in recent memory, and a compelling case can be made for at least half a dozen players in what is now a fascinating outright market.

The women’s draw is similarly compelling. Iga Swiatek won the Canadian Open, securing her first tournament victory since last September, before Coco Gauff ended her own 10-month wait for a title by triumphing in Cincinnati. Two elite players with proven Flushing Meadows pedigrees have therefore rediscovered their best tennis at the ideal time following difficult spells.

Two-time US Open winner Naomi Osaka and 2024 finalist Jessica Pegula are also prominent in the outright markets on tennis betting sites. The only real shame is the uncertainty surrounding Australian Open champion Elena Rybakina, who had also returned to form by reaching the final in Toronto before suffering an Achilles injury in Cincinnati.

Tipster Ben Smith has four picks, with odds taken from BetMGM.

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Men’s Singles: Novak Djokovic to Win (15/2)

We have to take on Alcaraz. Surely even he cannot return from more than four months out injured, arrive in New York without any competitive hard-court preparation and win seven best-of-five-set matches.

Alexander Zverev is next in the betting. The Grand Slam monkey is finally off his back, but he was handed a relatively kind passage through Roland Garros, not facing anyone ranked inside the world’s top 25 until the final.

Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Arthur Fils and Rafael Jodar have all been backed into the 10/1-12/1 range, but Novak Djokovic makes greater appeal at 15/2.

Yes, he is 39, and yes, he lost his opening match on his return to hard courts in Cincinnati, but he remains remarkably consistent at the majors.

Djokovic has not won one since his triumph in New York three years ago, yet he has failed to reach the semi-finals only three times in 11 subsequent Grand Slam appearances.

Seven of those 11 defeats came against Sinner or Alcaraz, while injury accounted for another two. The only remaining losses were against Alexei Popyrin here, after Djokovic had poured everything into winning Olympic gold, and Joao Fonseca in a Roland Garros classic on the Serbian’s least-favoured surface.

He beat Sinner at the Australian Open before taking the first set against Alcaraz in the final. Djokovic came that close to winning a record-extending 25th Grand Slam title earlier this year, so why can’t he go one better this time in such a depleted field?

Men’s Singles: Jakub Mensik to Win (40/1)

The men’s US Open rarely produces shock winners, but if ever there were a year for that trend to be bucked, this is it.

Those arriving in the strongest form have been backed accordingly, so I’m looking to the next tier for value. Jakub Mensik is the player I’m happy to throw a dart at.

It is now 17 months since his breakthrough at last year’s Miami Open, and his record since has been far from flawless, particularly at the Grand Slams. However, it is easy to forget that he is still only 20 years old.

The Czech remains far from the finished article, but he has the game to be a real factor at the US Open. He reached the quarter-finals in Canada and the fourth round in Cincinnati during an encouraging, if unspectacular, build-up.

His mixed-doubles triumph alongside Karolina Muchova on Wednesday night may have little bearing on his prospects here, but it certainly cannot have harmed his confidence ahead of a men’s singles event that is unusually open.

Women’s Singles: Aryna Sabalenka to Win (10/3)

Aryna Sabalenka has endured a bizarre and uncharacteristic run since completing the Sunshine Double in March.

She suffered final-set bagels in back-to-back tournaments in June, was outplayed by Osaka at Wimbledon and exited in the last 16 in both Toronto and Cincinnati.

As a result, she is clinging to the world number one ranking by a thread, while Swiatek and Gauff arrive at Flushing Meadows as the form horses.

But this is a hard-court Grand Slam, so dare we doubt the top seed? She has reached seven consecutive major finals on this surface and arrived here last year without having won a major that season, only to romp to victory while dropping just one set. It was a timely reminder that this is her domain.

Recent results should serve as a wake-up call and a big response is required. Fortunately for the Belarusian, she has landed in a favourable section of the draw, with Pegula appearing to be the main threat to her chances of reaching another Flushing Meadows final.

Women’s Singles: Jessica Pegula to Win Q2 (2/1)

Pegula was the only player to seriously trouble Sabalenka here last year, having also lost to the world number one in the 2024 final. There is every chance we could see another rematch between the pair.

The American’s quarter features Karolina Muchova, who underwent surgery after Wimbledon, and Elina Svitolina, who has struggled with an ankle problem recently.

This looks like Pegula’s section to win, and I expected her to be a touch shorter in the betting.

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