Wimbledon Semi-Finals Tips

The men's semi-final line-up is about as good as anyone could have hoped for, at least given Carlos Alcaraz's absence through injury.

Jannik Sinner takes on Novak Djokovic in the blockbuster clash many had earmarked from the moment the draw was made. Sinner had won the previous five meetings before Djokovic's epic Australian Open victory renewed belief that the 24-time Grand Slam champion can still claim a record-breaking 25th major title.

Yet much of the attention on Friday will be on British wildcard Arthur Fery, who steps onto Centre Court for the biggest match of his career against French Open champion Alexander Zverev after an extraordinary run to the last four.

Tipster Ben Smith has picked out a bet builder for each match using odds on BetMGM, one of the top tennis betting sites.

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Arthur Fery v Alexander Zverev

The 'Fery tale' is somehow still rolling on at SW19, with the world number 114 pulling off unlikely comeback victories in the third and fourth rounds before a comprehensive win over ninth seed Flavio Cobolli in Wednesday's quarter-final.

That's one 2026 French Open finalist out of the way, but Fery must overcome another to reach Sunday's showpiece. Zverev represents another significant step up in class, hence the 5/1 price about Fery.

The German looks more comfortable on grass than ever before and has come through two potentially tricky tests with relative ease. He saw off former Queen's Club finalist Jiri Lehecka in four sets before dismantling Taylor Fritz in straight sets. The American was hampered by a knee tendinitis, but it shouldn't detract from the level Zverev produced.

Bet Builder Tip: Over 4.5 Break Points in Set 1 & Over 5.5 Service Breaks (37/20)

This may not be a particularly serve-dominated match. Fery has held serve 83% of the time during the grass-court swing, but has won fewer than 72% of points behind his first serve. That figure is below tour average and is an area Zverev should be able to exploit early on.

The Brit has, however, returned superbly throughout the tournament and is capable of putting pressure on Zverev's service games.

Zverev's last four matches have featured 6, 5, 9 and 5 break points in the opening set. In the most recent two, he faced four and three respectively. Fery can contribute a couple here, but I'd expect Zverev to create the majority of the five break points we need.

Meanwhile, six breaks have landed in every one of Fery's matches at the All England Club this year, the only exception coming against big-serving Finn Otto Virtanen.

Jannik Sinner v Novak Djokovic

Djokovic was involved in the longest Wimbledon quarter-final of all time against Felix Auger-Aliassime, so the biggest question is what he has left in his legs after that five-hour, 15-minute epic.

He had also been taken to four sets in three of his previous four matches, spending far more time on court than he would have wanted ahead of this contest with Sinner.

The world number one hasn't had it all his own way either. He trailed Miomir Kecmanovic by two sets to one in the first round and, although he hasn't dropped a set since, there is still a sense that he isn't quite at his best.

He's making more unforced errors than usual and has been involved in more tight sets than you’d normally associate with him.

There is also the heat factor. Sinner has struggled in high temperatures at times, most notably when he failed to convert a two-set and double-break lead against Juan Manuel Cerundolo at Roland Garros.

The forecast suggests temperatures will climb into the low 30s Celsius at Wimbledon on Friday afternoon.

Bet Builder Tip: Djokovic to Win a Set & Serve the Most Aces (13/2)

Djokovic may not have enough left in the tank to beat Sinner over five sets again, but he's shown enough across the past fortnight to suggest he can make this competitive and take at least one set from the defending champion.

The 39-year-old adopted a far more aggressive game plan when they met in Melbourne, catching Sinner off guard and preventing the Italian from finding any real answers.

Sinner will be better prepared for that approach this time, but that doesn't mean he'll be able to stop Djokovic dictating play for spells on a surface and court where few players in history have ever been more accomplished.

The real value, in my opinion, lies in backing Djokovic to serve the most aces.

Even in Sinner's dominant win here 12 months ago, the ace count was tied at 12 apiece. Their two previous meetings on grass, also both at Wimbledon, saw Djokovic top the ace count once and finish level in the other.

Those matches came three and four years ago, but they still suggest Sinner has found Djokovic's more accurate first serve difficult to neutralise on grass.

The underlying numbers favour Djokovic when it comes to aces on this surface, so I'm more than happy to include him to serve the most at the prices available.

Accumulator Odds 20/1

These selections rely on the underdogs making a meaningful contribution rather than necessarily causing an upset. Fery should create enough pressure on return to help produce an entertaining opener against Zverev, while Djokovic has every chance of making life awkward for Sinner and edging the ace count even if the world number one ultimately progresses.

Altogether, we get an acca on BetMGM at combined odds of 20/1.

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