The Scottish Grand National, 4 Miles, Ayr, April 2 2022
Last week...
Well, the Flat began very flat for my selections, but if I want to find a positive once again, the winner of the race,
Johan, was one of the six on the shortlist. I saw an interview with Sylvester De Sousa after the race, who also worried that the horse may not be good enough, having been sold from the Haggas yard, who farm this race.
However, I was hopeful about the main selection, who beat the favourite, but placed 9th and did not get a return. The other selections ran very poorly, with one drifting so badly that he would have been discounted on the basis of his price, but I will add it to the stats as a loser.
I should also have looked more closely at the jockeys and how they rode the track, as it was clear De Sousa was the best and the jockeys on my selections had poor strike rates at the track. Something very important in big field Handicaps on the Flat and something I will not forget again in a hurry!!
Moving Forward
This week, I’m returning to a long-distance Handicap over fences and I will attempt to find the winner of The Scottish Grand National. This race is run over 4 miles, at Ayr, a left-handed, mainly flat, track with a stiff uphill finish.
Once again, I’ll be looking at the 33 previous renewals of the race, those since 1988. From that data I will try to establish the Trends and reduce the 24 runners currently due to line up, to a manageable amount for the final review.
Before we get down to the statistics, I have a small question. What makes this year’s renewal of the race a ‘once in a century’ event? If you’re not sure, read on and I’ll answer that question later!
Ages
Since 1988, all winners have been aged between six and twelve years. However, given the spread: six-year-olds (x1,
Earth Summit, in 1994), seven-year-olds (x4), eight-year-olds (x10), nine-year-olds (x8), ten-year-olds (x4), eleven-year-olds (x5) and twelve-year-olds (x1
Willsford
in 1995) it pays to focus on those aged from seven years to eleven years, but that’s not too much help if we look at this year’s field.
Odds
This is an Open Handicap and whilst there have been 12 fancied winners returned at a single figure price, there have been just three winning favourites. Those were in 1999 (Young Kenny), 2000 (Paris Pike) and the last was in 2017 (Vincente, when he became the first horse to win the race back-to-back). Given there were winners at 25/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 40/1 since 2014, this is another criterion that will not allow us to discount too many of the field.
Weights
Again, there has been a wide range of weights carried by the winners, with several winning from a long way out of the Handicap. Since 2000, only two horses carried more than 11-03 to victory:
Grey Abbey
in 2004 and
Vicente
in 2017. Both horses had run well in the race before this one.
Other trends
- The last 26 previous winners achieved a seasonal OR between 117 and 153, with the last 12 winners achieving an OR between 133 and 153.
- 26 previous winners achieved a seasonal TS between 88 and 150.
- The last 26 winners achieved a seasonal RPR of between 112 and 163, although 24 were between 121 and 159. The low RPR was
Merigo, in 2010 and he had run with credit four times previously at the track, before lining up for this race.
- 31 out of 33 had proven their stamina by winning a Chase over 3 miles and one of the others was a close second.
- 32 of the 33 had not run in more than 22 Chases prior to competing in this race (Willsford, in 1995, is the exception, having run in 33). Eleven had run in less than ten chases in total, but all had run in at least four. Of those eleven horses, all had winning form, with nine being multiple winners.
- Only one horse was off the track for more than 84 days (Al Co
in 2014, who changed yards in the run up to the race) before attempting this test of stamina.
- The last 21 previous winners had already run between three and six times that season.
Trend review
In short, the Trends indicate we are looking for a horse that is aged from seven to eleven years, that is still unexposed, has 11-03 or less to carry and has run at least three times, but not more than six times, in that season.
Firstly, I will discount the 11 horses that have over 11-03 to carry. So, the following will be removed:
- Hillsixteen
- Vintage Clouds
- Kitty’s Light
- Fantastikas
- Fidux
(who is also over-raced this season)
- Jersey Bean
(who was also off the track for too long)
- Win My Wings
(reluctantly, given he won the Eider when I tipped him up at 18/1 or 20/1)
- Ashtown Lad
- The Wolf
- Streets of Doyen
- Stormy Judge
(who has also had just two runs)
Next, I will remove any of the remaining runners who have had too many runs, which takes out another three horses:
Via Dolorosa, Innisfree Lad
and
El Paso Wood.
Now, I will discount another six of the remaining runners who do not meet the OR, TS or RPR requirements. This will remove
Strong Economy, who is barely qualified on OR, but is discounted as his TS is too low. Also
Cool Mix, as he has not attained an OR of over 133 this season,
Ask A Honey Bee, as his TS is too low and
History of Fashion, as his OR this season is too low (I also have major concerns about his ability to jump around this course).
Major Dundee
is another who is improving and his trainer talks highly of him, but again, due to failing to achieve the required seasonal OR (of at least 133) he is discounted. Lastly,
One More Fluerie, who had not attained a sufficiently high seasonal RPR, must be discounted, despite the fact that he ran well at the meeting last year
Further discussion
We are now left with just four qualifying horses. In racecard order they are
Prime Venture,
Chirico Vallis,
Court Master
and
The Ferry Master.
Evan Williams, the trainer of
Prime Venture, does not send too many this far (just 13 runners in the past five years) but when he does, you need to sit up and take notice, as six have won and three more have placed in the top four.
My main concern is whether the ground will be soft enough for
Prime Venture. I feel he will be staying on, but the going may not be totally to his liking. Also, he has been running in Veteran’s Chases, so this level of competition may find him out. However, His jockey rides the course well, with three winners from eight rides, plus two others placing in the top four.
Neil Mulholland, the trainer of
Chirico Vallis, is another that does not send too many to Ayr, but again has a reasonable strike rate, with four of his eleven runners placing in the top four. Again, his jockey rides the course well and has a decent strike rate, with four winners and 14 places from a total of 53 rides.
Chirico Vallis’s run at Warwick in January and the collateral form reads exceptionally well, especially given how soft conditions were that day, so he should see out the extra three furlongs on his first attempt at 4 miles.
Michael Scudamore, the trainer of
Court Master, is another who takes a targeted approach to Ayr, with four winners from 17 runners and three others placing in the top four. On his last start
Court Master
ran well, until tiring in the final furlong.
This slightly shorter trip should suit him better and he gets an 8 lb pull with
Win My Wings, so could be capable of being there or thereabouts. In addition, he is reunited with his usual jockey, who was not available last time out. He has ridden two winners and had five placed in the top four, from just ten rides at this venue.
The final horse the Trends have identified is
The Ferry Master. He placed in this race last year for his trainer, who is based locally and sends a lot of his runners here, to good effect. He has booked Ryan Mania to ride, who also rides this track well, placing in the top four in over 50% of his 182 rides here, over the past five years.
The Ferry Master
was beaten here last year, and in all likelihood, will find a few too good again this year. However, he is weighted to finish almost alongside
Cool Mix
and could improve a little for his second wind surgery, but I feel he will be placed at best.
Conclusion
My main selection has to be
Court Master, who ran well for a long time in the slightly longer trip in the Eider. With his regular pilot returning to take the ride, he will take advantage of the 8lb pull he’ll get from
Win My Wings.
Court Master
is currently trading around 20s, but be sure to use Oddschecker to see which bookies go the most places. Some are going seven places and some will even go BOG ahead of the race.
My saver is on the excellent collateral form of
Chirico Vallis, who ran well and the horses on either side of him in January came first and second in the Ultima at Cheltenham. He also gave the winner,
Éclair Surf, 2lbs, and that one was just behind
Win My Wings
in the Eider, when giving that one 11lbs.
I am seeing some 33s available, but not many, so I’d take that now, especially if the firm goes BOG, as I think he will go off shorter than that on the day. Even more so if JP McManus decides to punt him!
More Thoughts
The key thing to always do, is to check here to see the offers available and consider having several betting accounts. This will maximise your chances of taking cash from the bookies, by availing of the best offers.
As odds can, and do, fluctuate, you may see better terms over the days before the off. I highly recommend using Oddschecker as your guide. This will help to find what is best for you, as I see some bookies going just four places, which is hardly fair when others are going six, or even seven places.
Don’t forget, in races like this, maximum places are the key to long term profits!
As always, bet safely and if you ever find it anything less than enjoyable, consider taking a break.
Last but not least
Before I sign off, here is the answer to the question I posed earlier in this article, as to why this particular renewal is so unusual -
It is the first time, in over 130 years, that The Scottish Grand National will be run BEFORE the Aintree Grand National!!!
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