The expert behind Tony's Trends
The expert behind Tony's Trends
Trend-buster of a result in the National last week as NOBLE YEATS became the first seven-year-old to win in over 70 years! He was obviously aimed at the race, but had finished down the field and his odds of 50/1 show that not many will have been on him.
Two of our selections failed to complete and while all were well backed, you would have suffered a small loss with our third selection only placing and maybe not seeing out the trip. However, if as mentioned, you took advantage of the bookie offer, there was one firm who returned the EW part of your stake as cash.
Those who availed of the offer made a small profit. Not much of a consolation, but still, it shows that it pays to look around when placing bets to maximise your return, a mantra of mine. So always use Betting.co.uk and Oddschecker to get the best deals.
This week we will look at the Newbury Spring Cup, which is running at 3.35pm over the straight mile at the course. While Newbury itself is relatively flat, the straight mile has undulations and requires horses to see out the trip given the fast pace they usually go here.
As always, I will look back to 1988 and use the results to try and find a winner. The exception here is that I will discount 2016, when the race was run on an all-weather surface at Chelmsford, with only seven lining up on that occasion.
Since 1988 all 31 winners have been aged four years (x 22), five years (x 7), six years (x1) or eight years (x 1, although he had been off for three years).
This is an Open Handicap, but six favourites have won, although only three since 2000. Thirty of the 31 previous winners had an SP of 25/1 or less, while the last nine were 16/1 or less. The market has therefore done well in identifying the likely winner, so massive outsiders may place, but winning is unlikely.
A wide range of weights have been carried, but more recently if has paid to look at those carrying between 08-07 and 09-04.
In short, the Trends indicate we are looking for a well-handicapped horse that is aged four to five years.
Firstly, I will discount the six horses that do not meet the age criteria. So, this removes Oh This Is Us, Orban, Trais Flours, Mr Tyrell, Migration and Caradoc.
I am also discounting two of the remaining runners who have 09-08 or more to carry: Modern News and Etonian.
Next, I will remove three of the remaining horses currently trading above 20/1. This takes out Animal Instinct, The Kodi Kid and Cu Chulainn.
There is a great back story to that last name! So, Ginger Joe, who recently discovered the GAA sort of hurling, may have a small bet here – Google the name to read why!
I am going to discount Teodolina, as no filly has ever won the race and she also fails on the RPR selection criterion of recent winners.
Finally, I will remove any who have run, but not at Doncaster, so here, it’s The Turpinator.
We are now left with just four qualifying horses based on the Trends, all of whom are 12/1 or less, with three of them also being the first three in the betting.
Big profits are unlikely this Saturday!
In race card order the qualifiers are:
The latter three all met at Doncaster in the Lincoln and the market suggests they are likely to finish close together again. Rogue Bear, who is the current Favourite, stayed on well and was the only horse from a high draw to get into the places in the Lincoln.
He is going to come from off the pace and will be closing late on, but his profile is not ideal. Whilst he fits the longer-term Trends, most recent winners had a higher RPR. Another concern if taking 3/1 in this field, would be that the yard has been quiet recently and a few from there have run below par.
Isla Kai is the unknown in the field and likes to front run, but I feel will get mown down late. Again, his yard is relatively quiet at present. He could well have matured over the winter, but without direct knowledge of how he has trained on, it is hard to put him up.
Irish Admiral ran well in the Lincoln, but a comment from his trainer at the Craven this week has stuck in my mind, after a few of his did not do as well as expected. Haggas felt that maybe his horses were not as forward as he thought they were, so in a tight race, I’ll pass this one over again.
Saleymm ran very well in the Lincoln and just seemed to get done late on when looking a little green by that point. While Ross Coakley is a decent jockey, James Doyle takes the ride back, having won on the horse twice at the back end of last year.
While Rogue Bear was closing on him in the Lincoln, Coakley was not overly-hard on Saleymm in the final 100 yards. when he realised he would not beat Johan. Another positive, is the strike rate of the yard. They have sent out four winners from their last 13 runners and have a 20% strike rate here. In addition, a further 19 of their 27 total runners placed in the top four.
The main selection therefore, is Saleymm to recover the losses incurred by his backers in the Lincoln and at the price looks like a bet to nothing.
It is difficult to put up a single price saver in a race such as this so I will take a slight gamble here and look to the Tinkler yard to overcome their relatively poor form and get Isla Kai ready to win first time out.
I shall repeat this yet again! Always check here to see the offers available and consider having several betting accounts to maximise your chances of taking cash from the bookies by using the best offers.
As odds can fluctuate, you may see better terms before the off. I would use Oddschecker to find what is best for you, as I already see some bookies going one or even two places less than others, which is hardly fair.
Remember, in races like this, maximum places are key to long term profits!