We are going early with this one, so the results from Day 1 are not yet known and I will update you on those later in the week.
Once again, I will provide a Trends overview for all of the Day 2 races, highlight some Trends that are likely to be broken and explain the reasoning behind them.
Ballymore Novice Hurdle
Only one seven-year-old has won this race since 1988, which has to be a concern for the Favourite. Ten of the last 11 winners were six-year-olds, but recently the SP has been short, at less than 8/1.
The Brown Advisory
Twelve of the last 14 winners were victorious in a listed hurdle worth £20K and nine of the last ten were rated 143 over hurdles. Interestingly,
L’Homme Presse
meets neither of those trends!!!! And if you like
Bravemansgame, then you too must be concerned, as no winner of the Kempton Kauto Star Chase has ever followed up. Could we see an upset by Willie Mullins here??
We will come back to the Coral Cup in detail later in this review.
The Queen Mother
Will Nicky Henderson continue to farm this and ensure that Willie Mullins stays winless in this race? After all, he has five of the last ten renewals under his belt already, is he set to make it six?
The Cross Country
Nine of the last 11 winners were aged ten, or under, with
Easyland
being under eight years when he won. Fourteen out of 17 had run at the course previously, with the other Irish winners running over the banks course at Punchestown. There has been only one English winner since the race started in 2005.
The Grand Annual
Since 1988, all runners have carried 11-08 or less, with 32 out of 33 carrying 11-06 or less. Also, there has been no repeat winner since 1959!!! The last 11 winners were rated between 138 and 152. But do bear in mind that the race has moved from the New Course to the Old Course, so apart from weight, the other trends here could be weak.
The Bumper
Well, this race certainly has the potential to throw up some future superstars. Willie Mullins has trained 11 and Gordon Elliott has supplied two, both ridden to victory by Jamie Codd.
The Coral Cup
My detailed Trend review will focus on the big-field Coral Cup, run over 2m 5f. The going is currently good to soft, which means it will be run on decent ground, given the current weather forecast. It is a fast, left-handed course, with a long and challenging uphill finish. This puts the emphasis on stamina, plus the ability to handle the undulating track.
The Coral is another wide-open Handicap with plots that have both landed and gone awry over the years. This race was inaugurated in 1993 and today we will look at the last 28 renewals to establish our Trends.
Ages
Winners have been aged five years (x4), six years (x7), seven years (x9), eight years (x4), nine years (x3) and ten years (x1). The one ten-year-old,
Chance Coffey, won in the 90s and had placed in the race the year before. It therefore pays to concentrate on those aged five to nine years for this renewal.
Odds
- Of the 28 previous winners, eight were returned at a single figure SP.
- Only three Favourites have obliged, with only a handful of others finishing in the top five.
- 13 previous winners had an SP in the teens and seven had an SP of 20/1 or more, but not bigger than 33/1.
- The last 12 winners were returned with odds of 14/1, 16/1, 16/1, 33/1, 14/1, 9/1, 12/1, 16/1, 20/1, 28/1, 5/1 and 33/1 respectively.
Weights
The previous winners have carried a wide variety of weights, but 24 carried 11-06 or less.
Nationality
Cheltenham sees an increased number of Irish-trained horses participating in races, but England leads here with 16 winners to Ireland’s 12. However, the Irish have won four of the last ten renewals.
Other trends
- Ten of the last 12 winners had run at Cheltenham previously, the remainder were Irish runners.
- Only three winners since 2000 had more than nine previous hurdle runs.
- Few had won more than one Handicap
- Only one of the last 17 winners had run within the previous 30 days, while three others were returning from a break of over 100 days.
- 20 out of 21 winners had posted a seasonal RPR between 136 and 155.
- Nicky Henderson has supplied four of the last 12 winners and filled three of the top six places last year.
- While previous course form is a bonus, only one winner at the course was not trained by Nicky Henderson.
Trend review
In short, the trends indicate we are looking for a horse who has not been overly exposed to the Handicapper, who has course form, or is Irish-trained. We will also pay attention to runners trained by Nicky Henderson.
We will firstly discount any runner who has participated in more than nine hurdle races. This eliminates a total of twelve entries:
It also eliminates the second reserve,
Ask Dillon, should he get a run. In addition,
Call Me Lord
is not eliminated, due to being trained by Nicky Henderson, whose runners have bucked a number of Trends in this race.
Call Me Lord
is his sole representative for this year’s renewal.
Next, we will discount any runner that will be making a second appearance within 30 days. That takes out
Grand Roi
and
Daly Tiger. We will also discount the first reserve,
Good Risk At All, in the event he gets a run, on the same basis.
Now we will eliminate any of the remaining runners who do not fall within the desired seasonal RPR. This removes another four from consideration:
Fair Frontieres,
Tronador,
Champagne Gold
and
Fastorslow.
Given they are both course winners and not trained by Nicky Henderson, we must reluctantly discount both
Gowel Road
and
Unexpected Party.
Ganapathi
was sent off at 6/1 last year in the County Hurdle. He could only manage 14th on that occasion, but was still well ahead of
Gowel Road. However, he has not been seen on a racecourse since crumpling on landing at Punchestown last April, when he was about to challenge.
In this race, he is well in by comparison to
Ashdale Bob, who was a fortunate second at Punchestown. At the end of the day, I just cannot recommend backing a horse I have not seen running this year. Also, no winner has not had at least one run in over 300 days.
Further discussion
We are therefore left with five possible horses, some of whom remain in my selections as their trainers (Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson) have demonstrated that they have defied Trends when it comes to saddling a winner.
In race card order, the remaining five are:
Although
The Bosses Oscar
has run well at the Festival in the past, he went over fences this year with disastrous consequences and was pulled up in both of his last two runs when heavily fancied. If you want to be nostalgic, maybe this is the race, with most bookies going seven or even eight places, but it will be a leap of faith.
Saint Felicien
is another Elliott runner who came from France with a lofty reputation. He had already won a Handicap hurdle in France, so could not go for the Supreme. He was redirected here, instead of the Champion Hurdle, after losing by four lengths to the 159-rated
Darasso, despite being in receipt of 5lbs in that race.
He is very unexposed and clearly well-regarded, given how short he is on the betting. So,
Saint Felicien
could be the proverbial ‘Group horse in a Handicap’ but at the price and considering the record of Favourites, he will not be the selection.
Call Me Lord
does not meet multiple trends, but has been running well in some decent Handicaps and probably did not see out the longer trip last time out. He may not win this one, but taking account of his trainer’s form in the race and with eight places on offer, at current odds he is definitely worth a punt.
Indigo Breeze
is yet another unexposed Elliott runner who is open to improvement. However, he has a lot on his plate. He barely qualifies on the Trends, just scraping in at the bottom of the desired seasonal RPR range. On a form line with
Autumn Evening’s second last run, he has a good chance to place, but not based on that one’s final start where he disappointed against
Cormier.
Maze Runner
is interesting, as he has been campaigned over either 2m or 3m. He seems to stay well, based on his last run, where he finished ahead of some fancied runners in the Pertemps, even though he weakened two out. He is interesting off this weight, over a slightly shorter trip and holds decent prospects with 2lbs less to carry.
Conclusion
Maze Runner
is the selection, as it looks like he was campaigned over the wrong trip. Perhaps this was the plan all along!! It also seems almost strange to put a 33/1 shot up as the main selection, but given the recent record of Irish runners in this race and the SPs in the last ten years, maybe it is not so crazy after all. We will see on Wednesday!!
As the bookies are paying up to eight places and in keeping with the spirit of putting up an English and an Irish saver, I will suggest
Call Me Lord
at 33/1 for Nicky Henderson and as four of the last five winners were seven-year-olds, I will also take the leap of faith and follow
The Bosses Oscar
at 33/1 with seven places at Betfred.
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