Cheltenham Day 3, with a focus on the Pertemps Handicap, 3 miles, Cheltenham, March 17 2022
First things first!
I do hope you took note of the two EW savers I put up for the Boodles on Tuesday!
HMS Seahorse
came in third, he was on 12/1 when advised and returned at 8/1 to make a small profit. However, the real outsider,
Swinging London, managed to sneak into sixth place, having been advised at 50/1, he went as big as 100/1 at times, but ultimately returned at 80/1. A good few on the Ginger Joe Discord Channel were on him.
The main selection ran poorly and I am not sure why, as using the form lines he had the beating of the winner. It was noted that a few of Gordon Elliott’s entries ran well below expectations, so there may be an explanation at some point.
Either way, it was another profitable day for those who backed the Trends selections, so I won’t complain too much.
In the usual format, I will again provide an overview of the Trends for Thursday’s races and highlight any that could be broken, together with an explanation.
Marchs Novice Chase
This is a new race with just 11 renewals to consider, but with just four declared the trends are of no benefit here.
I am focusing on the Pertemps on this occasion and so a more detailed overview will follow later.
The Ryanair
Willie Mullins has supplied the last four winners and
Allaho
is regarded by many as the banker of the week to extend that run. The Trends favour runners from the top of the market, which bolsters his claims.
The Stayers Hurdle
Since 1988 all winners were aged between six and nine. This is a major negative for both
Champ
and
Paisley Park, who are both 10 years old.
Lisnagor Oscar, who won this in 2020, will race in Ukrainian colours to raise awareness and funds for the civilians being killed, wounded and displaced in the war there.
The Plate Handicap Chase
32 of the 33 previous winners carried 11-04 or less and all had won over the distance previously. Irish runners have a terrible record here, but have won four renewals since 2016.
The Mares Hurdle
This is a very new race and has been run on just six previous occasions. All renewals have been won by the Irish. English runners have filled just eight of the top 24 places since its inception.
The Kim Muir Chase
It pays to focus on seven- and eight-year-olds, who have won all renewals since the last nine-year-old winner in 2012. No ten-year-old horse has won since 2004. Another race to ensure you get a top-class amateur in the plate.
The Pertemps Handicap Hurdle
This detailed trend review will focus on the second race of the day, run over 3 miles, where the going is currently assessed as good, good to soft in places, which should ensure it will be run on decent ground, if the weather remains stable.
As previously mentioned, it is a left-handed galloping track with a challenging uphill finish that has seen off a few contenders this week already. So again, the need for stamina is crucial here. Today, we are going to look at the 17 previous winners of the race (since 2005) to establish our Trends.
The race was switched to the New Course in 2005 and a new entry rule was put in place in 2016. Since then, runners must have finished in the first six in a Pertemps Qualifier race to be eligible, not just have been declared to run in one. A trick that Martin Pipe tried more than once!
Doing it this way makes it more of a level playing field by ensuring that there are far less “overlooked” types in the Handicap. In that way the market can identify likely winners, making their prices shorter as a result.
Ages
Since 1988 30 of the 33 winners were aged six years (x11), seven years (x8), eight years (x6) or 9 years (x 5). Two were five-year-olds and just one was aged ten years,
Buena Vista, who was a repeat winner and was close the year before his first win.
Odds
Because of the entry rule changes, which gives the market the ability to identify potential winners, the result is shorter than expected SPs for such a big field Handicap. In the last 17 renewals the favourite has only been successful twice, although recently more have placed. However, the majority of winners had an SP of 16/1, or less, with just two being returned with an SP of 20/1 or greater.
Weights
All previous winners have carried between 10-04 and 11-12.
Nationality
While England has a lead here (23 to 10) Ireland has won the last six renewals, which has considerably reduced the deficit. This could well be because the Irish qualifiers have all been large field events, while the English qualifiers have had just six runners at times!
Other trends
- 12 out of 33 previous winners had already won a race over 3 miles that season, the last two Elliott winners were among those stepping up.
- 12 of the last 13 posted a seasonal RPR of at least 115.
- 31 of the 33 winners posted a seasonal RPR of at least 127.
- Ten of the last 11 posted a seasonal RPR in excess of 140, the eleventh fell during its final prep and posted a seasonal RPR of 134.
- Lower RPRs were displayed by those who ran at the festival previously and were being targeted at this race.
- None of the last ten winners had more than nine starts over Hurdles, with the exception of
Sire Du Berlais, a previous winner.
- While weight is key, the last claimer to ride a winner was in 2010, with
Buena Vista, who had been second the year before.
- No beaten favourite has won on its last outing.
It should also be noted that Trainers rarely run their best horses more than three times. In this way, they maintain a low mark for the race. No less than ten previous winners had just the exact amount.
Also, three others had runs in France to achieve their rating, two had more than four previous runs, no horses have ever run more than six times.
Trend review
In short, the trends indicate we are looking for a horse who has a seasonal rating in excess of 140, but has not won their qualifier and is aged between six and eight years, unless they were a previous winner here.
We will first discount all those runners who are outside the preferred age range. There are five to go here:
Ballyandy,
Go Another One,
Mill Green,
If The Cap Fits
and
Kansas City Chiefs.
From the last ten winners, none had more than nine hurdle runs, with the obvious exception of
Sire Du Berlais
and this eliminates the following twelve runners:
It also discounts the two reserves,
Remastered
and
Small Present, in the event either of them gets a run.
We will also overlook any runner who has not posted a seasonal RPR of 140, removes
Folcano
(also not a guaranteed stayer) and
Born Patriot.
Unfortunately, it also discounts
Alaphillippe, who has obviously been laid out for this race and anyone who saw his sole run this year saw him being “looked after” when his chance had gone and he faded late on.
As a result, a lot of shrewd watchers have stated that they feel he is a ‘handicap good thing’. But an additional concern from a Trends perspective is that only two previous winners (Inching Closer
in 2003 and
Fingal Bay
in 2014) had a single run to prepare for this race, although both were winners.
Further discussion
So, that leaves us with four horses:
Sire Du Berlais,
Winter Fog,
Coeur Serein
and
Dunboyne.
Sire Du Berlais
has won this race twice, in 2018 and 2019, before coming second in the Stayers’ Hurdle last year. He returns to this in decent form and has a good claimer on his back to take 7lbs off. Given his love for the track, plus his course and distance record, he is a serious contender. However, the record of conditional jockeys in the race is a concern, as few win.
If
Alaphilllippe
was given a tender ride, then so was
Winter Fog, who came on the bridle two out, to lead in his final run at Leopardstown (under Danny Mullins). After a brief tussle, the jockey accepted his fate and allowed the horse to come home in second place. Danny Mullins is replaced by Paul Townsend for this race and that is an obvious statement of intent!
Dunboyne
is becoming one of those who is well-weighted and clearly has ability, but seems to find trouble in running and is often in the wrong place at critical times in the race. He was fifth in the race where
Winter Fog
was second. Again here, he was not given too hard a time after being squeezed for room on the final bend. Also in that race, under a hands and heels drive, he was staying on all the way to the line.
Couer Serein
went over fences as a novice Chaser earlier this year and is currently rated 10lbs higher over the larger obstacles. He has slipped in relatively unnoticed as a result and ran in a qualifier with just six runners, coming second on heavy ground to the mud-loving
Emmpressive Lady
when conceding almost a stone in weight
In one of his earlier runs over fences he was eight lengths behind
Corach Rambler
and staying on, so we know how much he likes the course and can stay on all the way up the hill. This mixed campaign is a tried and tested method his trainer uses to ‘fly under the radar’ and get a really big-priced winner, so the fact he has this profile doesn’t put me off.
Conclusion
Winter Fog
has drifted slightly, but I think that the booking of Paul Townsend shows real intent on behalf of connections. So, having put up some big-priced selections earlier in the week, I am now looking at recommending this one, who is trading at just 13/2 in a big-field race.
But in keeping with the week (and taking account of several bookies going seven places, including Bet365, Betfair and Betfred), I’ll put up both an Irish and an English EW saver.
Unfortunately, the Irish saver is
Dunboyne, who is also really short priced, at just 8/1, for a race of this nature, but I have to keep true to the Trends when making the picks and sometimes they will throw up some that the market has found.
For what it is worth, there has been significant word out of Ireland for both of the Irish selections, both of whom have been highlighted in numerous preview nights, which has further compacted their prices.
Thankfully, the English EW saver,
Couer Serien
is a decent price and is currently 40/1 with Bet365 who are already going BOG, with seven places on offer, whilst many others are offering just 33/1.
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Don’t miss out
If you’re not already a member of the Ginger Joe Discord channel, then you’re already missing out! Here you’ll find his best horse racing tips for every day of Cheltenham and get to join in with a whole load of betting banter with other members.
You’ll also find another tipster too. Come and join, then you can see what Joe McCabe from JM Racing has in store as well. Joe M also plays a part in the Ginger Joe YouTube videos and just recently he identified
Corach Rambler
when it was priced in the 20s and later went on to win, albeit at a far shorter price.
There’s plenty of offers available this week from some fantastic UK bookmakers, so be sure to take a look at those at betting.co.uk as well. There you can always find the best value and ways to maximise your betting experience. But, on that note, always remember to wager safely and within your budget.
Final thoughts
There is talk of adding a fifth day to the Cheltenham Festival next year. However, I’m not entirely convinced that would be the best decision for NH racing. After seeing a few of this year’s races really cut up and running with such small fields, it doesn’t make much sense if the organisers want “the Festival” to retain its aura.
Finally, I hope you all have a wonderful St Patrick’s Day, drink plenty of green Guinness and enjoy your Cheltenham Festival Day 3 punting.
