Tony's Trends - Good News and a Hot Horse Racing Tip - Grimthorpe Chase, 5 March

The Grimthorpe Chase, 3 miles and 2 Furlongs, Doncaster, March 5 2022

Fantastic news from the horse racing tips team!

Did you read last week’s Trends early after it was published? Congratulations are in order if you did and took action!

The Winner, Win My Wings, was tipped as an EW saver, at a massive 20/1 for 5 places or 18/1 for 6 (depending on your bookie) before being heavily backed and going off at 11/2. She travelled very well throughout and jockey Ryan Mania (who we noted had a great record at the course) exuded confidence as he produced her late-on to win without too much fuss.

It was a Saturday to remember for members of the Ginger Joe Discord community, as he had selected her for a cross double with Cap Du Nord, a bet which resulted in a spectacular 135/1 strike. A truly fine pair of winners and a great boost for the community!

To round it off, my main selection, Rath An Luir managed a 6th, having been advised at 14/1 with 6 places, so also provided a positive return. Even more interesting was seeing four of the five Trends qualifiers finish in the top 6 places: first, third, fourth and sixth.

Lastly, you may also recall Gwencily Berbas, placing fifth at 33/1, was our week 1 Trends selection, although on that occasion, the going was a little too testing for him.

Cheltenham Festival 2022 Snippets

As we move ever-closer to the Cheltenham Festival, the numbers in the Handicaps this week are smaller. Ginger Joe has organised a meeting of the Discord community for Sunday March 13, where he will join forces with Joe McCabe from JM racing, who is also an excellent reader of form.

Together, they will go through the form lines in detail and I will also be there to provide insight on each race from a Trends perspective. We’ll be covering topics such as which favourites should be opposed and which races the Irish are not so likely to win, together with many insights.

All in all, there’ll be plenty to help you narrow the fields in preparation for the Cheltenham Festival 2022 and to make sure you get maximum enjoyment from it this time around.

This week’s Trends

This week, I’m taking a look at the Grimthorpe Chase, running at Doncaster at 15.30. The course going is predicted as good to soft, which should ensure it will be run on decent ground, given the current weather forecast.

The distance is 3 Miles, 2 Furlongs and so my selection will reflect runners who have already proven their stamina. The current distance and format of the race has been in place since 1989 and I’m going to take account of all 27 renewals since then, to help make this week’s selection.

Ages

All 27 previous winners in the period under consideration were aged between 6 and 11 years. However, the last 17 winners aged between 8 and 11 years.

Odds

Due in part to smaller fields, 23 of the 27 previous winners were sent off at single figure SPs. But even taking this into account, only six have obliged, with the last of those being in the 2016 renewal.

Weights

Past winners have carried a variety of weights, ranging from out of the handicap to 11-12. However, since 2009, it has paid to concentrate on those carrying between 10-00 and 11-00. From 1994 all horses who carried in excess of 11-00 to victory were all in form having won their final completed start before lining up here.

Other trends

• 25 of the 27 previous winners had won a Chase over 3 miles, with three others placing second and one excused having changed trainer in the lead up to the race.
• All previous winners posted a seasonal RPR between 116 and 158.
• 12 of the last 14 winners had a seasonal RPR in excess of 132.
• The last ten winners had an OR of between 127 and 142.
• The last 19 previous winners had raced at least twice, but no more than five times, before lining up.
• Course form has not been a significant factor in the race.

Trend review

In short, this year’s renewal has just eight runners and the Trends indicate we are looking for a horse who is aged from 8 to 11 years and who has been allotted a weight of less than 11-00.

Based on those Trends we firstly eliminate any horse who is outside the age range of 8 to 11 years. That removes three horses, the current favourite, Le Milos and Undersupervision, who are both seven years old. It also rules out Soyouthinksoagain, who is just six years.

We’ll also eliminate any runner who has been allotted a weight over 11-00 and who did not win their last completed start. Another three go here: Cloth Cap, Mister Malarky and Storm Control.

At the prices, we must also discount Legends Gold, who in his sole Chase victory managed to better Win My Wings back in 2020, but over a distance of just 2 miles 3 furlongs, which is a further negative.

Further discussion

We are now left with just one horse who meets all of the Trends and that is Powerstown Park.

Of course, this makes things very straightforward from a Trends selection point of view, but there are other positives too. Powerstown Park won last time out, bouncing back from being pulled up on ground that was too soft for him in his penultimate run.

His yard is in good form at present, sending out two winners from the last five runners and with a decent strike rate at Doncaster. Jockey Jack Tudor, who claims 3 lb, is booked for the ride on Saturday. Another plus point, as he landed the second leg of Ginger Joe’s winning double last weekend. So, a strong jockey booking, with proven recent success at Doncaster.

Conclusion

It’s wise to keep your stakes small this weekend, as the focus moves to Cheltenham for all National Hunt enthusiasts, but don’t let that stop you considering Powerston Park, who fits all of the Trends and is currently showing on a reasonable 8/1 at Unibet.

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Final reminder

If you are not already a member of the Ginger Joe Discord community, do join up. As well as getting great horse racing tips from the founts of knowledge that are Ginger Joe and Joe McCabe, you’ll also benefit from the tips other members will be sharing ahead of the festival preview night on Sunday March 13 – don’t miss it!