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Best Betting Sites UK / Ginger Joe Betting Tips and Picks / Tony's Trends - Last Trends for July – Glorious Goodwood, Saturday 30 July 2022 - Winning Picks for The Stewards’ Cup

Tony's Trends - Last Trends for July – Glorious Goodwood, Saturday 30 July 2022 - Winning Picks for The Stewards’ Cup

Publish Date:29/07/2022
Fact checked by: James Leeland

In last week’s Trends race, the Moet & Chandon International Stakes, Dark Shift ran really well and was just tapped for toe as he finished third over a trip shorter than ideal. His record at Ascot now reads four wins, one third and one fourth from his seven runs there.

At the time of writing and taking best odds from Betfred, his price of 11/2 meant you only got your stake back with a small profit if you backed him. However, he was backed into Favourite on the day and sent off at 100/30, so there was serious confidence behind him, but sadly it was not to be.

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Rhoscolyn ran better than last time, but his jockey elected to go with the group up the stands rail and the race was ultimately fought out by those who went up the middle of the track. The first five home had raced up the middle, so there was a definite benefit and bias on the day in being drawn low to middle. If Ciaran Fallon had the choice again, I’m sure he would break to his right rather than to his left, which could well have brought us a place, as he was less than two lengths away from one at the line.

The winner was drawn close to Rhoscolyn, but raced up the centre and tracked Dark Shift in the early stages. Fresh, who was discounted as he had not won over at least seven furlongs, has been running well in big Handicaps and likes Ascot, having placed in the top four on five of his previous six starts at the course. He, like 16 previous winners, ran at Royal Ascot (The Wokingham) but had also run into a place in the Victoria Cup over course and distance.

This week brings us to the end of some wonderful racing at both Goodwood and Galway, where there are multiple big Handicaps that are ideally suited to Trends analysis. So, we may look to do extra Trends pieces next year if there is sufficient demand.

The Stewards Cup, 6 Furlongs, Saturday 20 July 2022

I will look at the Stewards Cup. This race used to be run on the first day of Glorious Goodwood, but was moved to the Saturday in 1993 and is run over a straight six furlongs.

There is a maximum field of 28 runners allowed so make sure you look around for the best online bookmakers using betting.co.uk and run a comparison to make sure you are getting the best odds too.

Age

The previous 34 winners of the race have been aged 3 years (x 4, all of whom were sent off as Favourite), 4 years (x 16), 5 years (x 7), 6 years (x 5), 7 years (x1, Lancelot Du Lac in 2017) or 8 years (x 1, Shakira’s Son in 1995).

It is noteworthy that all four 3-year-old winners (Khaadem in 2019, Dancing Star in 2016, Magical Memory in 2015 & Danetime in 1997) were all sent off at 6/1 or less and had form over further.

Weight

All previous winners carried between 07-04 and 10-00, before any weight allowance for their jockey was considered. In fact, five of the 34 previous winners were steered by a Claimer who took 5lbs off their back. Eighteen of the 34 previous winners carried extra weight, running under a penalty.

Remember also, that due to sauna rule changes, weights have risen by 2 lbs. On that basis, I will no longer eliminate a horse who is just 2lbs wrong, as the new rules may impact future results.

Odds

Sixteen of the 34 previous winners were sent off at odds of 10/1 or less, which increases to 27 if we expand the range of SPs to 16/1 or less. Over the years there have also been some winners at bigger odds, 20/1 (x 2), 22/1 (x 1), 25/1 (x 1), 33/1 (x 1) and 40/1 (x 2, Shakira’s Son in 1995 and Conquest in 2008, who both ran in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot).

Eight Favourites have obliged since 1988, the last being Khaadem in 2019. If we exclude three-year-olds, then there have been just four horses aged four or five years who have won as Favourite, Hoof It, who carried 10-00 to victory in 2011, being the last.

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  • All previous winners were allotted a seasonal OR of at least 80, but not more than 112.
  • Since 2000, Twenty one out of 22 winners were allotted a rating of at least 89.
  • All previous winners achieved an RPR of at least 78 but not more than 119.
  • Since 1997 all winners were allotted an RPR between 98 and 119.
  • The draw has not been conclusive in finding the winner of the race either and even this week’s racing has not helped me make a call on whether it might be better to be high or low, with winners this week coming from across the track.
  • No previous winner has been off more than 71 days, 30 of the previous winners were off the track less than 50 days, with three of the others being heavily fancied (sent off at 6/1 or less) and had been targeted at the race.
  • 33 out of the 34 previous winners won over at least six furlongs, the exception was Coastal Bluff in 1996.
  • Of the previous winners, 21 ran in the Wokingham that year.
  • 23 of the last 25 ran in at least a Class 2 Handicap in their prep run, the others ran in a Listed race (Borderlescot in 2006), or a Group race (Gifted Master in 2018 in the Kings Stand, plus Khaadem in 2019 and Summerghand in 2020, who ran in the Hackwood Stakes). The two exceptions, Superior Premium in 1998 and Bond Boy in 2002, were both sent off at odds of 14/1, with one running in the Wokingham in the penultimate prep and the other running well in a trial over course and distance in its penultimate prep.
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In short, the Trends indicate we are looking for a horse that either ran at Royal Ascot or in the Wokingham and is aged four to six years.

Firstly, I’m going to eliminate any horses who are not aged 4 to 6:

Three eight-year-olds, as there has been no winner of that age since 1995:

  • Summerghand
  • Justanotherbottle
  • Gulliver

Three seven-year-olds, as there was just one winner of that age, Lancelot Du Lac, an outsider on rain-softened ground in 2017:

  • Mr Wagyu
  • Makanah
  • Tabdeed

One three-year-old, as he is not the Favourite:

  • Annaf

Next, I will eliminate any runner who has been off more than 50 days:

  • Coachello
  • Typohoon Ten

Now I will discount any runner who fails to meet the OR and RPR requirements, who in race card order are:

  • Good Eye
  • Tinto

Lastly, I’ll remove any runner whose current odds are greater than 25/1 and who did not run in the Wokingham:

  • Batwan
  • Rathbone
  • Above
  • Able Kane
  • Zargun

We are still left with twelve qualifiers to review, which shows just how compressed the Handicap of the field is. I’ll take a closer look at these in race card order.

Chil Chil ran eighth in the Hackwood on her reappearance and while that was not a bad effort, I’d still expect her to have come on for that run. Given the big weight she will have to carry, I see they have booked the decent 5lb claimer, Harry Davies, to help improve her chances. She was far from disgraced when coming third in a Group 1 last year over this distance and you get the feeling this may have been the plan all along.

Great Ambassador is a horse I like and I backed him last year when he just failed to land the Ayr Gold Cup. His return in the Jubilee Stakes was underwhelming, to say the least and he finished just ahead of Chil Chil last time out. However, he had the benefit of a pipe opener, so the 4lb pull he gets from the weights against her (when taking their riders claims into account) will make it interesting, as they are drawn next to each other.

Lampang was one I put up a while back, who failed to bring us a return, before winning a race not covered by a Trends article. However, his last race was a small-field affair where his class told. One of the reasons I liked him for the Wokingham was that he had fallen down the Handicap, but that win may have blunted his edge and makes him more likely to place at best.

Saint Lawrence was running over a shorter trip for most of the year before stepping up in distance to try six furlongs in the Hackwood stakes. He finished behind both Chil Chil and Great Ambassador that day and due to the claims of their jockeys, he will be worse off at the weights. In his favour, he raced on the wide outside with no real cover, but even so, I cannot see how he would make up the three lengths needed here.

Commanche Falls won this race last year and unseated his jockey at the start in the Wokingham, so he is fresher than most others. He was generally unfancied that day as he was due to be sent off at 50/1. Back at a track where he won, he is a dangerous big-priced runner here. His trainer just had his first big Glorious Goodwood winner on Wednesday, as Prairie Falcon just prevailed in a Nursery Handicap. My main reason for not selecting him is that no horse has retained the race, or won it a second time.

Method is another who is coming here having run in the Hackwood Stakes. However, having trailed in last there, he is likely to find this contest too hot for him. While they have upgraded the pilot for this race, again I do not see why he would turn the form around with those who finished ahead of him in the Hackwood racing here.

Popmaster was really unlucky in the Wokingham and was done by Rohaan’s blistering late run. Rohaan nearly doubled up in the Hackwood, before just being denied by Minzaal, but that close second in the Wokingham looks really solid form. In addition, he had Mr Wagyu in his rear-view mirror that day and gets to reoppose on more favourable terms here, as that horse won at Leopardstown (beating Big Gossey that day, whom I had backed at 16/1). Even if Mr Wagyu had not been dismissed due to his age, I think that Popmaster would confirm the form.

Regional, from the Bethell yard, will be partnered here by Ryan Moore, who has been riding exceptionally well this year. My main concern with him would be his lack of experience in a big field, combined with the fact that he has been running in lesser events, when compared to other lightly raced previous winners, so I’ll pass on him for this race.

Inver Park was hugely impressive when winning his Royal Ascot race from Ropey Guest, who has since run well in the Bunbury Cup. In fact, lots of the horses behind him in the Buckingham have run with credit since, so he will have to be on any short list that is made.

First Folio was another to runner in the Wokingham and gets a 4lb pull for a three-length beating by Popmaster. He ran poorly at the course in the Stewards Sprint Handicap (the Cup Consolation race) although he was drawn away from the winner, Mr Wagyu. Given how competitive it will be, I’m not sure I’d want to back one I am uncertain will handle the track.

Whenthedealisdone has seen serious money for him in the run up to the race, shortening from 25/1 into 10/1. I have to admit I’m not sure why this is happening, as he has been running over shorter trips all year and this step up in a hot contest where stamina will be needed at the finish is not certain to suit. He won a Maiden stakes over this distance in 2020, but he was fading and being passed by others when trying this distance in July 2021. Given this doubt I will pass him over here, as I think he will once again travel well for a while before falling back late on.

Finally, we need to look at Raatea, who won at Newcastle last time out. I have heard since that on the day of that race, they harrowed the Tapeta surface at Newcastle extra deep to benefit Trueshan (which is annoying, as he beat our selection, Spirit Mixer, by half a length). If that is the case, then I’m not sure that the going will suit him as the harrowing would have made the surface ride on the slow side, more like soft ground on turf, which he is not going to get here. On that basis, while I think he is interesting and unexposed, I’ll pass him over.

So, we are now left with three possible selections at this time:

  • Chil Chil
  • Popmaster
  • Inver Park

I have to make sure that at least one of my selections has contested the Wokingham, given how many previous winners ran in that race. And on that basis, my main selection is Popmaster, as he is also in the more Trends-friendly odds range at this time. Tom Marquand has not ridden a winner at Glorious Goodwood (at the time of writing) but does quite well at the track and he will be trying to make up for that close call.

I think, based on previous winners, none of whom ran in the Buckingham Palace, I’ll side with the group form of Chil Chil over the potential of Inver Park. Both are around the right price, but Chil Chil is available with the best betting odds and this is a second reason to hope she steps up on her seasonal debut and brings us a decent pot. Added to that, she also has the benefit of being steered by Harry Davies, who I believe has a better racing brain that is suited to a big Handicap like this.

Finally, make sure you use betting.co.uk to find the best betting bonus offers, as most bookies have extra places up for grabs. Let’s hope have found a winner to turn the tide in favour of the Trends so we can end July on a high note!

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