Tony's Trends - Saturday 29 January 2022

The Sky Bet Handicap Chase, 3 Miles, Doncaster, January 29 2022

Well, that was some winning performance by Royal Pagaille who defied numerous trends whilst doing so. According to Ginger Joe, he also posted one of top ten handicap performances of all time. Our selection, Empire Steel, was never really travelling and unfortunately, the writing was on the wall long before he was pulled up.

This week we are going to look at the Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster, running at 15.20. Doncaster features a left-handed, fast-paced track with a long run-in that can test the best.

While this race has a long history, we’re going to look at the 27 renewals since 1990. Yes, the math seems wrong, but some renewals were cancelled due to bad weather.

Ages

All 27 previous winners were aged between 6 and 12 years old. It pays however to look at horses aged 7-10, as 23 out of 27 winners came from that age group.

Odds

20 previous winners were sent off at a single figure price, with five favourites winning. Just four previous winners had an SP of 20/1 or more, so it makes sense to concentrate on those with odds of 16/1 or less.

Weights

Only one previous winner won from out of the handicap, with the majority carrying between 10-00 and 11-12. However, it is wise to focus on classier individuals, as 13 of the last 14 winners carried at least 10-07.

Other trends

• All previous winners had at least one other prep race that season.
• None of the last 20 previous winners had more than five runs, but 17 ran between two and four times.
• 22 out of 27 previous winners had proved their stamina by running well in a race over a distance of 3 miles, including the last 17 winners.
• 26 of the 27 previous winners posted a seasonal RPR between 127 and 153. The other was a decent horse who had not fired up in two runs that season.
• Of the last 20 winners, 18 completed, there was one faller and one unseated his jockey.
• Only one previous winner was pulled up during its final prep run.

Trend review

In short, the trends indicate we are looking for a horse who has run well previously and has proven its stamina.

So, we will now eliminate any horse who has not had at least one prep run this season, which takes out only Debece.

We will also remove any horse who was pulled up last time out. That eliminates a further six runners: Grand Sancy, Cloudy Glen, Hill Sixteen, Rocco, Some Chaos and Windsor Avenue. That said, the last of those six could be an E/W value bet, as his trainer places 60% of his runners at Doncaster.

We will eliminate any horse carrying less than 10-07. That rules out Cap Du Nord and Hurricane Harvey.

We will also overlook any horse who has not proven their stamina to this point. These are Janika and Midnight Shadow (who’s seasonal RPR is also too high).

We will also pass over any of those remaining who have posted a seasonal RPR outside the parameters. Only one here and that is Fusil Raffles.

Finally, we will remove runners outside of the main age range. Just one again here, namely Nuts Well.

Further discussion

We are now left with just four possible horses from a field of 17 runners. Those are Canelo, Kapcorse, Storm Control and Demachine.

Canelo ran well in this race last year and is 11lbs lower in the weights. However, this is largely due to his poor form. His yard has also struggled to find form recently and has not had a winner over the jumps for 31 days, so we shall rule Canelo out.

Kapcorse represents the powerful Nicholls yard, who have been among the previous winners. However, many of theirs have run below expectations recently, as they overcome the effect of their flu shots. Kapcorse has also only had a single prep run and is therefore discounted.

We are now left with the pair of Kerry Lee entries, Storm Control and Demachine to consider. Storm Control won well last time out, after not firing earlier in the season, but after the win owner Wilf Roseff, felt that he might struggle going forward.

Demachine unfortunately unseated his jockey last time out after stumbling, but has always been held in high regard by trainer Kerry Lee, who has talked of aiming him high.

Conclusion

Demachine is our selection. With a current price of 10/1 at Betfred, who not only have the best odds, they are paying out to six places in this race.

Windsor Avenue could also be worth a small E/W play, due to the trainer’s fantastic record at Doncaster. Currently showing at 20/1 with Betfred.

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