Tony's Trends - Stats Based Horse Racing Tips - The Eider Chase 26 February 2022

The Eider Handicap Chase, 4 miles and 1 Furlong, Newcastle, February 26 2022

Week 7 Trends Synopsis

Last weekend’s weather conditions certainly made the Grand National Trial a challenging race. With just three from a field of 11 horses completing the course, many EW bets were sunk.

Once again, my trends highlighted the potential winner, but again I went for the wrong one. I hope that anyone who read last week’s Trends would have seen the change in the market and how it realigned to favour The Galloping Bear, as my selection drifted out to double figure odds.

Given that two thirds of the previous winners were returned at a single figure SP, I hope you saw how things changed as the weather worsened, making course conditions very tough indeed and ultimately punters backed the alternate trends qualifier.

Week 8 trends

For this week we are going to look at the Eider Chase at Newcastle, a Class 2 Handicap with 17 entries running at 3.15pm. The going will be heavy again and the 4 miles, 1 furlong course will put emphasis on the need for stamina, as well as the ability to handle that type of going over the distance.

It’s quite likely that many of the 17 declared runners will not finish this year’s renewal. While this race has a long history, several renewals were called off due to bad weather. Today, we are going to look at the 24 renewals that have taken place since 1992.

Ages

All 24 previous winners in the period under consideration were aged between 7 and 12 years. Eighteen of the last twenty winners were between 8 and 11 years old, with the remaining two being aged just 7. Five of the last six winners were aged 9 and no 8 year old horse has won since 2009.

Odds

23 out of the 24 previous winners went off at odds of 18/1 or less, with 13 returning at a single figure price. There have been four winning favourites, with the last of those obliging in 2012.

Weights

Winners have carried a variety of weights ranging from out of the Handicap to 11-12. However, since 2009, it has paid to concentrate on those carrying around the 11-00 mark, with eight of the last ten winners carrying 10-08 and 11-01.

Other trends

• 19 previous winners finished in the first five on their previous start, with three failing to complete. However, they all won their second last prep race, including one who finished outside the top five.
• All previous winners posted a seasonal RPR between 116 and 150, with the last sixteen posting RPRs between 131 and 150.
• Eight of the last ten previous winners had an OR of between 136 and 149.
• 23 out of the 24 winners had proven their stamina by winning over a distance of 3 miles, or more, prior to the race. The other horse having changed trainers in the lead up to the race, which could account for that.

Trend review

 In short, the trends indicate we are looking for a horse who is aged from 9 to 11 years and who has been allotted a weight of around 11-00.

We will firstly eliminate any horse who is outside the age range. This removes Potters Corner, Lake View Lad, Achille, Éclair Surf, Checkitout and History of Fashion. Although History Of Fashion is the current favourite, his yard is also in the middle of a poor run, with no winners for 30 days.

Next, we will remove any runner who did not post a top five finish in their last run, or if they failed to achieve that, did not win their penultimate run. Here we lose Just Your Type and Brave Eagle.

We will also discount those who do not fit within the weight range trends, namely: Domain De L’Isle and Danilo D’Airy.

Based on current prices, we must also discount Strong Economy and Gwencily Berbas.

Further discussion

We are now left with just five possible horses: Cash To Ash, Innisfree Lad, Court Master, Rath An Luir and Win My Wings.

Mark Walford (Cash To Ash) has not had a winner in over 100 days, whilst David Dennis (Innisfree Lad) has not had a winner in 36 days. Both trainers are considered as out of form and their runners are therefore discounted.

Court Master has run well and done all that has been asked of him. However, the concern here is that his best form has come on better ground, so there is potential that he won’t see out the distance on ground that is likely to be soft, at best.

Rath An Luir won two Chases well at Carlisle in 2020, on soft and heavy ground respectively. His connections have persevered with him, as he overcame a long absence to run well at Ayr recently, until tapped for toe in the final few furlongs. Note also that his canny trainer (Rose Dobbin) won this race in 2016 and knows exactly what is required to succeed in this stamina-sapping test.

Win My Wings bounced back to form with a win at Exeter recently, carrying 11-11 to victory. As he appeared to need every inch to overcome his rivals that day, this suggests that a longer trip will suit him well.

Week 8 Trends Conclusion

Rath An Luir has clearly been kept back with this race in mind, having run well for a long time in his previous race at Ayr. The market is mixed however, so be sure to compare odds carefully! Rath An Luir is currently showing on Betfred at 14/1 with 6 places, or on Bet365 at 16/1 with 5 places.

Win My Wings has shown significant improvement. He has won recently on heavy ground with Nick Scholfield on board, albeit over a lesser distance, but with plenty left in the tank at the finish. This time Ryan Mania takes up the reins, but I feel Win My Wings is worth a small EW play. Currently at 20/1 with Bet365.

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