Tony’s Trends for The Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle, 2 miles, Sandown, March 12 2022
Synopsis of week 9 Trends
Well, after the great results two weeks ago, last week quickly turned into a damp squib as the selection was declared a non-runner on the Friday before the race. Given the small field, I did not put up a saver, so whilst my stake was refunded, there was no other selection to watch out for.
Week 10 Trends
This week, we look at the Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle. The race is running at 14.25 at Sandown, where the going is currently good to soft, so the ground should be decent, given the current weather forecast. It is a right-handed galloping track, with a long, stiff uphill finish that will put an emphasis on stamina. This week we are looking at the 33 previous winners of the race since 1988 to establish our Trends.
Ages
All 33 previous winners in the period under consideration were aged between 4 and 9 years. There are no four-year-olds declared for this renewal and only one nine-year-old has won previously (Scorned
an ex-Flat horse, who had been off for some time due to injury). Sixteen winners were five-year-olds, seven were six-year-olds, four were 7-year-olds and there were three 8-year-olds.
Odds
Eighteen of the 33 previous winners were returned at a single figure SP. Twelve more returned at an SP between 11/1 and 20/1. While we have seen a lot of shorter-priced winners, there have been just nine winning favourites, the last of those in 2010.
Weights
Winners have carried a variety of weights ranging from out of the handicap to 11-10.
Since 2009 it has paid to concentrate on those carrying between 10-00 and 11-02.
To give a more specific review of the weights we will also focus on the weights carried by the various age groups as younger horses will generally not have matured to allow them carry a bigger weight:
- 5-year-olds have carried between 9-09 and 11-06, but most carried less than 11-01.
- 6-year-olds have carried between 09-12 and 11-02, but most carried less than 10-13.
- 7-year-olds have carried between 10-00 and 10-07.
- 8-year-olds have carried between 10-01 and 11-07 (the high weight was carried by a previous winner and other than that, the highest weight was 10-05).
Other Trends
- The last 14 winners posted a seasonal RPR between 124 and 142.
- The last ten winners had an OR of between 110 and 139.
- All previous winners had run at least once, but no previous winner ran more than eight times that season. However, 29 ran between two and six times.
- 25 previous winners placed in the top five in their final prep race, with the others either having an excuse (heavy ground), previously a Flat horse, or ran exceptionally well in the race the year before.
Trend review
In short, the trends indicate we are looking for a horse who is aged from five to seven years, who is improving and carrying 11-02 or less.
So, based on these trends we will firstly eliminate any horse who is due to carry over 11-02. Those are
Miranda,
Samarrive
and
Onemorefortheroad. We will also discount any horse who has been allocated more weight than its age group has carried to victory, so that removes
Zambezi Fix.
We will also overlook any horse who has not achieved, or exceeded, the required seasonal RPR. This eliminates another six horses:
Lively Citizen,
Monviel,
Hydroplane,
Lucky One,
Transatlantic
(who has not run in the UK yet) and
Mr Grey Sky.
We will also discount
Mick Maestro, as he is nine years old, plus
Howdyalikemenow,
Lebowski
and
Calico, who are all unlikely to have an SP of 20/1 or less. Lastly,
Balco Coastal, since no favourite has won since 2009. In addition, the form of the Henderson yard is a concern.
Further discussion
We are now left with seven horses who meet the trends -
Surprise Package,
Hacker Des Places,
Current Mood,
Up For Parol,
Hystery Bere,
Kihavah
and
Grisbi De Berce.
Surprise Package
is an Irish raider, who has run well in big Handicaps at Leopardstown, but may be outclassed here, having won lesser races. The major issue is the form of the yard, who have not had a winner recently. However, if he does win, or run well, then it’s worth reviewing his last few races, as many of the runners who beat him are entered at Cheltenham.
Hacker Des Places
has run within the last 14 days and beat little to nothing in small field events. I’m not sure how he’ll handle the hustle and bustle of a twenty-two-runner competitive Handicap, given that he has only raced in fields of ten or less. The same applies to
Current Mood, who was dropped in class to help her claim the win last time out.
Up For Parol
has been running well and staying on over trips further than this on ground softer than he will encounter here. However, his trainer has achieved just one winner from 43 runners here, so we will discount him on that basis.
The two five-year-olds,
Hystery Bere
and
Kihavah, have met previously. On that occasion,
Hystery Bere
was staying on while
Kihavah
was fading. The race in question was won by
Cormier, who has since franked the form by winning the big Hurdle race at Kelso last weekend.
Hystery Bere
gave
Kihavah
4lbs and beat him by 8 lengths. His stamina will be helpful in a strongly-run race, as we are likely to see this time.
Grisbi De Berce
has managed to get into the race off a feather weight and was described as “the sort who could run well” by his trainer, as he only goes right-handed. His last run was at a time when the yard was out of form, but he still finished 13 lengths behind
First Street, who in turn ran excellently on his next run, the Betfair Hurdle, where he came in third.
Conclusion
Many bookies are going six places on the race, which will be ultra-competitive. So, given his run style and the fact that stamina will be as important as speed,
Hystery Bere, at 9/1 with Bet365, is the selection.
Given the large field and our experience last week, I would also suggest an each-way saver on
Grisbi De Berce, who is currently 25/1 with Ladbrokes, but shorter with others.
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