Tony's Trends - Stats Sourced Selections for Haydock, 19 February 2022

The Grand National Trial, 3 miles and 4 Furlongs, Haydock, February 19 2022

Our saver, First Street, paid dividends when he came in third at a SP of 14/1. This more than made up for the poor finish of our main selection, Jpr One. He travelled strongly, but then faded when the race began in earnest. First Street might have gotten closer, and certainly troubled the first two placers, but he made a mistake at the last and on the tacky going, making up ground was always going to be difficult.

This week, in our seventh edition, we are going to look at the Grand National Trial running at Haydock at 2.40pm. The going is heavy, so the emphasis is on the need for stamina, plus the ability to handle the course conditions.

While this race has a much longer history, we will look at the last 30 renewals since 1991, bearing in mind that some took place elsewhere due to bad weather.

Ages

All 30 previous winners in the years under consideration were aged between seven and 11 years. Eight of the last ten winners were aged between 8 and 10 years.

Odds

All but one of the previous winners were sent off at a price of 18/1, or less. In addition, 21 of them returned at a single figure price, including five winning favourites. This year brings a smaller field than usual, so big priced winners are unlikely.

Weights

While three previous winners carried 11-12 to victory, 27 previous winners carried 11-07 or less.

Other trends

• 28 of the 30 previous winners had at least one other prep race in the same season.
• None of the previous winners had more than seven runs, but 18 ran between one and three times, including seven of the last eight winners.
• 19 finished in the first three on their previous start, the remainder either placed in this race the year before, or in one of the major Nationals.
• All previous winners posted a seasonal RPR between 111 and 158. The last eighteen posted an RPR between 133 and 151. Eight of the last ten had an OR of between 136 and 149.
• 29 out of 30 had proven their stamina by running over a distance of 3 miles or more prior to the race, with nine of the last 10 already having won over at least 3 miles.
• Form around the course is a benefit, although many were racing at Haydock for the first time.

Trend review

In short, the trends indicate we are looking for a horse who is well-fancied, has run well but is unexposed and has less than 11-07 to carry.

We will firstly eliminate any horse who has a weight in excess of 11-07. Just the one here, Bristol De Mai (the yard are also 0/9 since 2012).

We will discount any remaining horses who are outside of the main age range. This will rule out Blacklion, who has run well in the race before, but no 13-year-old has ever won it.

We will also eliminate any runner who is outside of the seasonal RPR and OR ranges. That removes a further five runners: Lord Du Mesnil, Secret Reprieve, Sidi Ismael, Time To Get Up (who has also been off too long) and Sam Brown.

At the price we must also remove Kalooki, given he is showing at 25/1, barring a sudden late plunge.

We will also discount Mint Condition who has had four runs this season and has yet to win a race over 3 miles. However, he has won here at Haydock previously, over 2 miles 6 Furlong in heavy going. Given his two decent runs here, both on heavy going, he could place. Connections booked Brian Hughes for the ride before declarations closed.

Further discussion

We are now left with just two possible horses who fit the trends: The Galloping Bear and Enquarde. Both yards have been among the winners recently, as have the jockeys, so this should ensure a cracking and competitive renewal.

The Galloping Bear carried a big weight to victory in his last race around Lingfield. This was on heavy ground and over the same distance, but he may just lack the class required to turn over some decent types in this year’s field.

Enquarde ran reasonably in last year’s renewal, when just seven years old. He has also stepped up on that markedly, handing Remastered a 10-length defeat here last December, over a distance of 3 miles and 1 Furlong, on soft ground.

Conclusion

Enquarde has been kept back with this race in mind, having run well for a long time in last year’s renewal. He is currently showing at 5/1 with Ladbrokes.

Mint Condition has shown significant improvement. He has won previously at this course on heavy ground and has the champion designate jockey on board. So, I think he is worth a small EW play, given how well he has run here in the past.

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