The Lincoln Heritage Handicap, 1 Mile, Doncaster, March 26 2022, 3.35pm
Let's start at the Start - so to speak!
Before we move on to Saturday's big race, as promised, I am going to do an overview of the results from all of the Trends selections so far. That's since we started, 15 articles ago, back in January.
Over that time, I have put up a total of 30 bets, most at decent EW prices. To date, there have been just three winners, but I also identified 10 runners who placed, 18 who quite frankly let me down and two who were scratched before the race even started. Although that doesn’t sound amazing, if I had picked short-priced Favourites, then the outcome would be horrendous!
The three winners were advised at 20/1 (returned at 40/1), 18/1 (returned at 11/2) and 5/1 (returned at 11/4). But we also had horses placed at 80/1, 40/1 and 33/1. So, of those horses who ran, there was an overall return on 46.43% of them.
Profit
I was really pleasantly surprised to see that if you had placed a £1 EW bet on every horse and took advantage of maximum places (as I always advise) then you would now be £30 ahead!
I also hear that the average SP for a winner of the Handicap races at Cheltenham was 22/1 this year. Even though they are notoriously difficult, the Trends made a profit at Cheltenham too, £11.70 to a £1 EW stake, which is included in the overall results. A key part of the profits has been to ensure you take the maximum places available, given the competitive nature of the races the Trends are looking at.
A side note
In addition, I noted that on two occasions, when I had the selection down to two horses, I went left when I should have gone right and they hurt to this day. Both met the Trends, but I picked the wrong one of the two and the other horse won.
The first,
Prime Venture, returned at odds of 18/1 (when I did not put up an EW saver) and the second,
The Galloping Bear, came in at 5/1, but was trading at 14/1 at the time of writing. If I had gone for the other one of those final two horses, or put it up as a saver, then the profit would be closer to £70!!!
Moving on through 2022
We now enter a funny time of the year, where the Trends will mix National Hunt and Flat racing. My choice of races will depend on which side of the fence (pardon the pun) the big field Handicaps, those that lend themselves to the Trends methodology, are found.
However, this weekend marks the first big race of the Flat season. It’s The Lincoln Heritage Handicap, running at Doncaster over a straight mile. There will be 22 runners lining up, many of whom will be having their first run of the season.
Once again, I will look at the results over the last 33 renewals (since 1988) to see what similarities exist between the various winners in order to make my Trend selection. The race, as mentioned, will take place over a straight mile and the surface is entirely flat, to ensure a fair test. The ground is currently described as Good to Soft, but as the forecast is for dry and sunny, albeit cold, weather and the ground is likely to be Good or better by Saturday.
Ages
Since 1988, winners have been four-year-olds (x16 in total, including the last five winners), five-year-olds (x 9), six-year-olds (x7) and one eight-year-old (in 1998). It therefore pays to focus on those aged 4 to 6.
However, there have not been a lot of older horses running, so if you like one at a price for a place, then I would not dissuade you. Having said that, at Cheltenham this year, the Trends for the Ultima (where Ireland had a terrible record) were said to be weak, as Ireland had the biggest number of runners ever this year! Regardless of that factor, the outcome was the same, with only one Irish horse placed!!
Odds
The Lincoln is an Open Handicap, but while there have been fancied winners, none were returned with an SP greater than 33/1. Twelve were returned at single figure SPs, including seven Favourites. From those who did not win, only six others placed in the top five. Eight were returned with an SP in the teens and the remainder were returned at odds of 20/1 or more, although the last winner at odds of over 25/1 was
Zucchero
in 2002.
Weights
Only one winning horse has carried more than 09-04 in the last 20 years and of late, the range of weights is between 08-04 and 09-04. The 08-04 was a bit of an outlier and 19 of the last 21 winners carried between 08-09 and 09-04.
Draw
Winners of The Lincoln have come out of a range of Doncaster stalls over the years I am assessing, so this data will not immediately help to discount runners.
Other Trends
Broadly speaking, there are two types of winners of the race. Unexposed four-year-olds (of which there have been sixteen in total) and then the slightly more battle-hardened five and six-year-olds, also sixteen. So, when we look at the OR, TS and RPR, I will differentiate between them to make the data even more specific.
Four-year-old winners achieved grades within the following bands:
- An OR between 82 and 109
- A TS between 59 and 91, although the last nine were between 84 and 90.
- Two horses had a TS below 84, one carried 08-00 and the other had achieved an RPR of 114
- An RPR between 84 and 114, although nine of the last 10 achieved a rating between 98 and 114.
- None had run more than 17 times and in this century, most of those who ran more than ten times, were either gelded, or changed yards during the season.
The five and six-year-old winners achieved grades within the following bands:
- An OR between 77 and 108, the last 11 were rated between 84 and 108.
- A TS between 75 and 104.
- An RPR between 49 (one outlier who changed stables) and 114, although ten of the last 11 had achieved an RPR between 99 and 114.
- They had run between 11 and 33 times.
- 15 had won over a mile, had a run at Doncaster previously, or both.
- Six had run over the winter on all-weather tracks, or in more recent years, at Meydan (Dubai).
- Most recentlym some had placed in the race the year before.
Trend review
In short, the Trends indicate that we are looking for a horse aged from four to six years, that is still unexposed and has 09-05, or less, to carry.
Firstly, I will discount the five horses that are not aged from four to six years, as 32 of the 33 previous winners met this criterion. This means we discount
Safe Voyage
(who also has too much weight),
Whats The Story
(who ran well at the meeting last year),
Another Batt,
Scottish Summit
and
Hortazor.
Next, we will remove the two remaining horses that are allotted over 09-05, whether they have a Claimer booked or not, which takes out
Modern News
and
Brunch.
Next, we will discount any of the four-year-olds who do not meet the Trends from an OR, TS or RPR stance. So here, we must remove
Mujtaba,
Saleymm,
Darkness,
Rogue Bear
(whose TS is too low) as well as
Teodolina, whose RPR is too low in comparison to recent winners.
We will also overlook any five or six-year-old that fails to meet the OR, TS or RPR criterion.
Marie’s Diamond
whose RPR is just too high (although she has had too many runs as well) and
Broken Spear
whose RPR is too low (he too has had more runs than any previous winner).
We must also remove any five or six-year-old who has not run at Doncaster before, or won over a mile, this eliminates
Ametist
and
Eagleway.
Further discussion
Now we are left with just six qualifying runners. In race card order those are:
Johan
has just changed stables and they have booked Silvestre De Sousa to take the ride. He is capable, but the weight is slightly high. I also wonder why trainer William Haggas would let him leave if he was top drawer?
Irish Admiral
is a decent type who failed to see out the 1 mile 1 furlong trip last time out but he is probably a stable second or third choice based on the market and I’m never a fan of one who is taken down early as he can be temperamental in an ante post column as I’d only recommend him if I can see he has taken the preliminaries well.
Revich
is another outsider who won last time out. However, he is now a further 3 lbs higher in the weights and is 10lbs wrong, compared with
Marie’s Diamond, for less than a length, so I will have to discount him on this occasion.
Fame and Acclaim
is an interesting runner, who ran well behind both
Revich
and
Marie’s Diamond. His weighting here could reverse form with both of them. It is also interesting that Lewis Edmunds had the chance to ride this horse, or
Eagleway
(he was “jocked up” on both in the early declarations).
Fame and Acclaim
ran well in the Irish Lincoln last year, for Joseph O’Brien, before transferring to Les Eyre in June last year.
We are now left with just two horses -
Notre Belle Bette, who has been the subject of a major plunge in price and
United Front
who met in the Lincoln Trial recently. During the last week,
Notre Belle Bette's price contracted from 25/1 to 8/1, following the announcement that David Probert was booked to take the ride. The horse transferred stables earlier this year and his new trainer has evidenced serious improvement in him.
He has won his last two starts and is clearly improving each time. In
Notre Belle Bette's last win in the Lincoln Trial, there was another horse in that race who was beaten by just under two lengths and is getting close to 20lbs, including his jockey's claim for that beating and is currently trading between 25/1 and 33/1. That one’s trainer, Michael Appleby, gave his stable tour (as reported in the Racing Post supplements) and believes his charge,
United Front, will act on the grass - where he is rated 13lbs lower than on an all-weather tracks.
In
United Front's youth, he was trained by AP O’Brien and ran a decent race for him, staying on and beaten by under 3 lengths. This was over an inadequate 7f at the Curragh in a big field competition, which was won by
Champers Elysees
so he should be able to reproduce his AW form on the turf.
My Selections
So, for me, the main selection has to be the Andrew Balding-trained
Notre Belle Bette, given how he has improved for the transfer to Balding. On that note, I would get on sooner rather than later, as the price will only continue to contract.
Given that some bookies are going seven places and I’m unable to choose between the price offered by
United Front
(25s or 33s) as compared to the main selection and
Fame And Acclaim
(16s but 25s in places) I’d advise a small saver on both. The other reason to do two savers, is that I’m not sure which side of the draw may be favoured, so taking one on each side will deal with that uncertainty!
Lastly - tips straight from the horse's mouth!
One key thing to do, is to always check what offers are available and consider having multiple betting accounts to maximise your chances of taking cash from the bookies by availing of the best offers. Odds can, and will, fluctuate and you may see better terms over the days before the off, so use Oddschecker to find what is best for you.
Lastly, always wager safely at a licensed and regulated online bookmaker. Betting.co.uk can help on that front if you need some help with that! Also, never forget that punting should be enjoyable. As I’ve shown you, even with small stakes, you can have a whole load of fun and make yourself a modest profit.
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