Tony’s Trends - Stats Sourced Selections for Newbury 12 February 2022

The Betfair Handicap Hurdle, 2 Miles, 4 Furlongs, Newbury, February 12 2022

We crashed back down to earth a bit last week, as the main selection ran much too freely early on, consequently fading badly late on and finishing well down the field. In addition, our “saver” was declared a non-runner on the morning of the race.

But let’s leave that behind us. This week we are going to look at the Betfair Handicap Hurdle, the 3.35 at Newbury. This is a well-kept, left-handed track, with as much emphasis on speed as on stamina.

Although this race has a long history, we will concentrate here on just the last 15 renewals, those run since 2005. During that time, two renewals were abandoned due to bad weather.

Ages

All 15 previous winners in the period under consideration were either 5 or 6 years old.

Odds

Eleven previous winners went off at odds of 16/1 or less. Eight returned at a single figure price, including five winning favourites. It’s a fairly small field this year, so high-priced winners are unlikely.

Weights

In a total of 15 renewals, only one horse has carried more than 11-06 and won.

Other trends

• 14 of the 15 previous winners had at least one other prep race that season.
• None of the previous winners had more than five prep runs.
• Ten horses ran between two and four times during the season, including the last six winners.
• 14 out of 15 victors finished in the first three on their previous start.
• All previous winners posted a seasonal RPR between 116 and 152
• The last eleven winners posted an RPR between 135 and 149.
• Nine of the last 12 winners held novice status (second season Zarakandar with just four runs and Pic D’Orhy having just turned five for his fourth run in the UK).
• All previous winners had competed in no more than 11 hurdle races in their career, with 10 not running in more than five.

Trend review

In short, the trends indicate we are looking for a horse who is well-fancied, has run well but is unexposed and has less than 11-06 to carry. It’s also worth knowing that there has been no repeat winner since Rosyth over 50 years ago.

We will firstly eliminate any horse who has a weight in excess of 11-06. Soaring Glory (also outside the age range at 7 years), Tritonic (who finished fourth last time out) and Glory And Fortune (also too old at 7 years).

We will discount any remaining horses who are outside the main age range namely, Boothill and Jetoile. Fifty Ball and Lord Badersley are discounted on age, as well as poor recent form.

Howdyalikemennow is a nice type, but is a second season hurdler with ten hurdle races under his belt. He did not finish in the first three last time out and for these reasons is passed over this time.

I like to Move It was trying to concede 5lbs to Jonbon and gave him a race before fading late on. However, given the trends are so strong on finishing in the top three, his fifth place last time out means we must discount him.

Further discussion

We are now left with just five possible horses: First Street, Broomfield Burg, Jpr One, Knappers Hill and Royaume Uni. Three of these horses have an entry in the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham, indicating they are really well-regarded by connections and are all novices.

Given the cloud over the yard at present, I cannot in good faith consider a Paul Nicholls runner for a competitive race. This means that Knappers Hill is passed over, even though he concedes 3lbs here. He finished close to Jonbon last time out, just beating Elle Est Belle and I Like To Move It (who conceded 5lbs).

Royaume Uni has posted the lowest seasonal RPR of the five qualifiers, with only two of the previous winners posting such a low seasonal RPR, so we will look elsewhere for our winner. That said, trainer Gary Moore has supplied three past winners and a number of big-priced placed horses, so at 25/1 and with five places, he could oblige.

As mentioned earlier, the remaining three horses are entered in the Supreme at the Cheltenham Festival. These are First Street, Broomfield Burg and Jpr One.

Given the Supreme market and the fact that this is a Handicap, where First Street will have to concede weight to two highly regarded contenders, the preference must be for those with less weight.

First Street’s only defeat over timber came when he stepped up to 2m 4F, making a noise and not seeing out the trip (his trainer later acknowledged running him was a mistake). He subsequently had a wind operation and comfortably gave weight, beating several rivals including Royaume Uni and the favourite that day, Lord Badersley.

Broomfield Burg has been sent off favourite for all four of his starts over timber, but has only won in small fields when odds on. So, while he is well-regarded, the form is slightly dubious, especially since he was turned over twice.

Jpr One beat the highly regarded I am Maximus first time out and only went down by a neck at Cheltenham in December, before producing an impressive win last time out.

Conclusion

Our main selection for this week is Jpr One. Available at 11/2 with William Hill, who also go five places. It’s worth doing an odds comparison though, you might find better elsewhere, with less places.

First Street, who has shown significant improvement since his wind operation, although conceding weight here, is worth a small EW play, given how well he beat a decent field last time out. Still showing in double figures at William Hill.

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