The Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, 2 Miles, 7 Furlongs, Sandown, February 5 2022
Well, last week’s trends had a rather satisfactory outcome and I hope you all had a result from the E/W saver I picked last week. For those who missed out, my each-way selection was
Windsor Avenue, who won at odds of 40/1.
Again, with the main selection, I narrowed it down to two horses, but my Kerry Lee runner,
Demachine, only managed a second. That said,
Demachine
ran well and looked like he would challenge two out, but then faded, with the jockey reporting that he made a noise towards the end of the race. Still, a winner at 40/1 was a nice return.
If you had been a member of the Ginger Joe Discord Group, you would know that I also put up
Hillsixteen, also placed and coming in at 28/1. Over the weekend on Discord, the members combined to tip several other big-priced winners between them as well.
Ginger Joe had a NAP that returned at 9/1 and other tips put forward in the Discord group returned winners at 33/1 and 8/1 together with a host of big priced placed efforts. All-in-all it was a cracking racing weekend for the group.
I’d highly recommend joining the
Ginger Joe Discord Group
if you haven’t already – it’s completely free and we’re a very friendly community!
Tony’s Trends for The Virgin Bet Handicap Hurdle
This week we are going to look at the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle, running at 14.55 at Sandown. This is a lovely, right-handed galloping track, but with a long uphill run-in that’s sure to test stamina.
This is yet another race with some history behind it, but we’re going to work with the last 27 renewals for the purpose of this week’s trends.
Ages
All 27 previous winners were aged between 5 and 9 years. However, we’ll narrow that down a touch to horses aged 6-9, as there has been no winner aged 5 since 2003.
Odds
25 previous winners were sent off at odds of 16/1 or less. Seven favourites have won and 21 horses in total have come in at a single figure price. It is difficult at this point to definitively make a call on price, as that could easily shorten nearer to the race.
Weights
Only one previous winner won from out of the handicap, with the majority carrying between 10-00 and 11-12. However, seven of the last ten winners carried between 10-07 and 11-00, with just two winners carrying more than 11-03 over the same period of time.
Other trends
- All previous winners had at least one other prep race that season.
- None of the previous winners had more than five runs, but 19 ran between two and four times, including 15 of the last 17 winners with the other two running just once.
- 26 out of 27 previous winners had proven their stamina by running well in a race over a similar distance.
- 22 of the 27 previous winners posted a seasonal RPR between 124 and 148.
- All previous winners who completed this race had finished in the first five in a prep race, none finished second and two failed to finish in their prep race.
Trends review
In short, the trends indicate we are looking for a horse who is well-fancied, has run well in its prep race, has previously proven its stamina and has less than 11-02 to carry.
- First, we eliminate any horse who has not had at least one prep run this season, so
Easysland
is the first to go.
- We will also remove any horse running with a weight in excess of 11-02. These are
Call Me Lord,
Dolphin Square,
If The Cap Fits
(who is also too old),
Orbys Legend
and
Dans Le Vent.
- We will also overlook any horse who currently has odds of greater than 16/1, namely,
Ask Dillon
and
The Cob.
- None of the previous winners were Irish-trained, or came first or second in a final prep run, so we can discount the dangerous
Born Patriot.
- Beauport
has placed second in both his prep runs and is discounted as none of the previous 27 winners finished second in their final prep race.
- Finally, we will eliminate all horses outside the main age range. Namely
Green Book,
Garo De Juilley
and
Flemcara.
Further discussion
We are now left with just five possible horses that meet the requirements of the trends. These are
Paddleyourowncanoe,
Onagatheringstorm,
Ree Oka,
The Brimming Water
and
Jesuitique.
Paddleyourowncanoe
changed stables fairly recently, only joining the Skelton yard a few months ago. His last run in a chase can be ignored, as he was pulled up when the rider unfortunately lost the reins and could not recover them.
The bigger concern here is the fact that
Paddleyourowncanoe
ran so poorly in the 2019 renewal of this race and was beaten by 34 lengths. The only saving grace being that he was just a 5-year-old. Additionally, his trainer has just a 7% strike rate at this track, so a place is potentially his best hope for this year’s race
On the other hand, Fergal O’Brien, trainer of
Onagatheringstorm, has a 22% strike rate at Sandown, with over 50% of his runners consistently placing in the top four. This horse has been a model of consistency and has not finished outside the top five to date. However, the jockey has a lower strike rate here, at just 8% and the yard has been a bit in and out recently.
Ree Okka
is highly regarded by his trainer and the Sefton Hurdle at Aintree is a possible target for him. He has won his last two runs and prior to that came second to behind
Gelino Bello. However, that result does not look as strong now, when we consider
Gelino Bello
was soundly beaten by an improver in the Lanzarote Hurdle.
Odds posted so far suggest that
The Brimming Water
will likely be just outside the selection criteria, but given that he will carry just 10-03 and his jockey rarely rides at such a low weight that may in itself be a signal. As a result, a small saver on him is suggested, especially as most bookies will pay extra places.
Jesuitique
has been a revelation this year, winning three of his four starts and has a great chance to be involved at the business end yet again. His jockey has stated that he jumps very slickly and he ran at this course in November, beating
Beauport. Although that one had a pull at the weights,
Jesuitique
improved again when stepping up to a 3-miler at Haydock last December and winning with ease.
Tony's selections
Therefore,
Jesuitique
is our main selection and is currently showing at 10/1 with six places at Betfred.
Our small-stakes E/W pick is
The Brimming Water, especially given that his jockey will ride near the bottom of the weight range.
He’s generally forecast at 16/1 but currently showing at 18/1 with Betfred.
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