Week 10 Trends Synopsis
Surprise package, the winner of the Imperial Cup, was qualified on Trends, but the form of the yard was a concern. We will learn now, never discount an Irish runner in a Handicap in the UK. He was such a clear winner and the result should sound alarm bells for anyone who likes English-trained runners in the Handicaps at Cheltenham.
Our main selection
Hystery Bere, ran very poorly and was well beaten a long way from home! Thankfully, those who followed the 22/1 EW saver,
Grisbi de Berce
(who came in seventh) had their stakes covered and made a small profit overall.
Trends for Cheltenham Day 1 – Tuesday 15 March
Here I will provide an overview of the Trends for all of the races on 15 March, highlight some that may be broken and explain the reasons.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Willie Mullins has won five of the last nine renewals – can his dominance continue? He is so confident he can win this race again that he has diverted the previous ante-post favourite,
Sir Gerhard, to the Ballymore Hurdle on Wednesday.
The Arkle
There is a definite bias towards horses aged six and seven years, who have been victorious in 25 of the 33 previous renewals of this race. However, this year, that may be overturned, with so many at the top of the market being either a five-year-old (4/33 but no winner since 2004, when the weight for age allowance was discontinued) or like
Edwardstone
the favourite, who is an eight-year-old (3/33 but no winner since 2010).
The Ultima Handicap Chase
This has been a poor hunting ground for Irish runners over the years, with just two winners since 1988 and none since
Dun Doire
in 2006. This year however, it’s somewhat distorted. In the last five years, there have been only eight Irish-trained runners in total, but this year, the Irish have sent that number of raiders, so it must be considered a weak Trend for this renewal.
Twenty previous winners have run at the Festival before, including ten of the last 12. However, ignore any with a letter in their form for their final prep race:
- U (Unseated jockey)
- F (Fallen)
- P (Pulled Up)
No winner in this century failed to complete last time out, so this is a strong Trend!
Tip #1
Ginger Joe has a very special tip for this race. It meets the Trends and it’s a BIG price!!! It’s available to anyone who joins his Discord channel, so be sure to head over.
The Champion Hurdle
Repeat winners have been a regular feature of this race and the unbeaten
Honeysuckle
looks starred to join the list of other multiple winners.
The Mares Hurdle
Few English horses do well in this race, but the Favourite has been overturned, thanks to the Willie Mullins bankers,
Stormy Ireland
and
Burning Victory. Gordon Elliott is very sweet on the chances of
Queens Brook, but Trends favour the top-rated Mullins mare.
The National Hunt Chase
Well, it’s a shame that just seven horses will be lining up lining up for the final race of Day 1. Here, the jockey is just as important as the horse and the top Conditionals have a high strike rate between them. They ride the top three in the market this year, so which, if any, will add to their tally?
Run Wild Fred
- JJ Codd x 3 wins
Stattler
- P Mullins x 2 wins
Vanillier
- D O’Connor x 2 wins and a short head loss
Trends for the Boodles Handicap Hurdle
This detailed trend review will focus on the penultimate race, running at 16.50 over 2m 1/2f. The going is currently good to soft, which should ensure it will be run on decent ground, given the current weather forecast.
It is a left-handed galloping track, with a long, stiff uphill finish that will put an emphasis on stamina and the ability to handle the undulations of the course. This week we are looking at the 17 previous winners of the race since 2005 to establish our Trends.
The Boodles Handicap is possibly the most difficult race to figure out, with a host of unexposed types running, often for the first time in a large field. The Trends tell you to look for outsiders with seven of the last ten winners returning at 25/1 or bigger. Can the Willie Mullins “handicap good thing” win at 5/2?
Ages
As the race is restricted to four-year-olds only, this criterion will not assist us in reducing the field.
Odds
Just five of the 17 previous winners were returned at a single figure SP, including three Favourites. The last ten winners were priced 80/1, 15/2, 7/2F 33/1, 33/1, 13/2, 25/1, 33/1, 25/1, 40/1s and 9/1.
In the last eight renewals of the Boodles, only 16 in total from the first six home have been under 16/1. That's from a possible 48 placers. Admittedly 12 of those 16 came from the last three renewals, but still a race to look for
THELMISH
runners.
Tip 2
What is a THELMISH runner I hear you ask? Well, it is a Discord Group term for outsiders at 20/1 or more. The Group found no less than three of those last weekend, which certainly helped to build up their Cheltenham kitty! Why not join? It’s completely free, which is something of a rarity these days!!!
Weights
The previous winners have carried between 10-04 and 11-10, but it has paid to concentrate on those between 10-07 and 11-08 (15/17) as there have been eleven winners carrying at least 11-00.
Nationality
Cheltenham sees an increased number of Irish horses participate in races. However, England leads here, with ten winners to seven, but the Irish have won the last four renewals.
Other trends
- 14 had already won a race over 2 miles.
- 12 of the last 13 posted a seasonal RPR of at least 115.
- Many were not given an OR, but those that had were had between 120 and 135.
- 14 out of 17 had adjusted ratings between 124 and 134.
- Two had higher ratings of 138 and 139 (Arramax
and
Band of Outlaws
respectively. Both were trained by Gordon Elliott).
- Just one was lower at 115 (What a Charm)
- Those coming from the Flat achieved a rating of at least 75 at some stage in their career.
- Trainers will often not run decent horses more than three times to maintain a low mark for the race, with ten winners having just that amount.
- Three others had some runs in France to assist in getting their mark, while two more had run four times. No horse has run more than six times.
- None had ever raced at Cheltenham before.
- While weight is key, the last claimer to ride the winner was in 2012 (Une Artiste).
- No last time out beaten Favourite has won
Trend review
In short, the Trends indicate we are looking for a horse who is rated 124 to 134, not a Maiden and one who is not overly exposed.
We will first discount all those runners who are outside the ratings sweet spot, namely
Petite Tonnerre
and
Brazil
who are too high (The Tide Turns
is rated 137, but is trained by Godron Elliott, so is not discounted based on his record here). We’ll also eliminate
Skycutter, who is rated too low.
There is currently a maximum field of 22 declared, but if any drop out, the reserves
Dr TJ Eckleburg
and
Tanganyika
are both rated too low and will be automatically overlooked as a result.
We will now proceed to eliminate any former Flat horse who did not attain an OR of at least 75 in their career, so here we lose
Doctor Churchill
and
Sea Sessions.
We will also discount any Maidens, as 14/17 had already won a Hurdle race, including nine of the last ten, which removes
Doctor Brown Bear. The only exception here being
Diego Du Charmil, who had not run in the UK and changed yard in January of the year he won it.
The following are therefore eliminated from consideration:
Gaelic Warrior
(although he may have a similar profile to
Diego Du Charmil, he has not run in 283 days and has been held back for this race since getting his rating, which many believe is 10lbs to 20lbs well in). We’ll also overlook
Prairie Dancer
and
Milldan
(who again, is unraced outside of France)
White Pepper, with six previous runs over hurdles is considered over-exposed on Trends, as only
Silk Affair
(in 2009) had run that often.
Saint Segal, who has a Conditional booked, is also discounted at this time, as is
Forever William
who ran at the track when beaten by
Pied Piper
and
Britzka
(a beaten favourite on his last start).
Further discussion
We are left therefore with nine possible trend qualifiers, who, in race card order are:
We have seen a number of these meet earlier in the season and the first form line we will look at covers
Iberique Du Seuil,
Champion Green
and
Swinging London.
Of the three,
Iberique Du Seuil
has beaten the others, with
Swinging London
a neck back in third and
Champion Green
a further two lengths back in fourth, off level weights. However, he had more experience than the others, both having just their second outing and may have less improvement to come as a result.
Swinging London
has a 1lb pull at the weights with
Champion Green, even though he beat him and has moved to Olly Murphy’s yard for £60,000 since. Of those three, my preference is for
Swinging London, as I would expect Olly to bring out further improvement and at the current prices, he is at four to five times the odds of
Champion Green!
We have also seen
Feigh
and
Bell Ex One
meet, when the latter prevailed.
Feigh
is also looking over-exposed after five runs, in which he has not improved and has been beaten by several of this year’s runners.
HMS Seahorse
met
The Tide Turns
and went down to that rival by two lengths off level weights on that occasion. Both have run since to get their Handicap mark, but now meet with the former getting a 9lb pull at the weights and priced at double the odds. They also had
Brazil
in behind them that day, who in turn beat
Ebasari
by 4 lengths when getting 4lbs, so they are probably evenly matched.
Too Friendly
was brought along slowly by the Skelton’s and ran well last time when seven lengths behind the top English Juvenile
Knight Salute, but given the market in the Triumph, it seems that the general consensus is that Irish form is better.
Conclusion
Gordon Elliott has targeted this race, having won three of the last ten renewals. As a result, I will side with
The Tide Turns
who ran against older horses last time out, without being disgraced, to get his Handicap mark to run here.
At 7/1, with the majority of bookies paying six places, he looks rock solid. It is entirely possible the Mullins top spot,
Gaelic Warrior, wins this by half the track, but at the odds I will take my chance, as the Trends do not favour that outcome.
Given that it is Cheltenham and there is an England vs Ireland atmosphere, I will put up two savers or fliers, one from each country for the week. For the Irish,
HMS Seahorse
at 12/1 with Bet365 looks a good proposition.
For the English choice, I will go for a real outsider, in the hope that Olly Murphy is a better trainer than Emma Holden and that the £60,000 was well-spent with
Swinging London
at 50/1. Bet365 are already NRNB and BOG, so I’d use them for the bets on this occasion.
Added value
Over on the free-to-join Ginger Joe Discord channel, Joe picks the best bets every day for members, which will help you enjoy the Festival week even more.
There will be lots of offers this week from bookies, so use the betting.co.uk site, to see which will give you the best value and maximise your enjoyment. But as always, remember to bet safely and within your means. Punting is meant to be fun after all!
Finally, if you do get some winners this week, or have some spare cash, please consider doing what they are asking in the final race on Day 1 - now named the
UKRAINE APPEAL NATIONAL HUNT
- and make a contribution.
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