The Midlands Grand National, 4 Miles 2 Furlongs, Uttoxeter, March 19th 2022
A bit about the Cheltenham Festival first!
Well, the Cheltenham Festival is over for another year and I hope you followed the horses that the Trends threw up. Over the first three days we had no winners, but with placed horses returned at SPs of 80/1, 40/1, 33/1, 8/1 and 13/2, we made a tidy profit over the week.
At the time of writing, there are three selections still to run, which is mirroring our first three days and one presumes we will add more to the kitty going forward. I hope that followers will see the benefit of playing in the bigger Handicaps, at bigger prices, rather than lumping cash on short-priced favourites.
We saw several go off at odds of 6/4 (or less) and not even place –
Dinoblue,
Shiskin
and the very unfortunate
Galopin Des Champs.
I will do a full review of the first 15 Trends articles next week. That way we can see the bigger picture and assess how we have done since we started posting Trends in January this year. It will also be valuable to see how this methodology performs over a longer spell.
Given that we have had winners at 40s, advised others at 18s and after the big priced placed tips last week, I feel confident the results will be very healthy for our pockets! More later about the multiple massive-priced horses that won or were placed over the last week!
The Midlands Grand National
Running this Saturday, we will look at the Midlands Grand National, which is run over a marathon trip of 4 miles and 2 furlongs. Uttoxeter is a left-handed track, with some undulations in the back straight, but otherwise it is basically flat. However, it does have a long run in, which can result in lead changes late on.
We will look at the 32 renewals since 1988 and establish the Trends we will use to remove runners who do not meet these criteria. A total of six of last year’s field return this year to renew battle, emphasising that these types of races suit a certain type of horse.
Ages
Since 1988 all winners have been aged six years (x1), seven years (x6, although none since
Synchronised
in 2010), eight years (x11), nine years (x7), ten years (x4, none since
Glenbrook d'Or
in 1994), 11 years (x2) and 12 years (x1, none since 1988). We will therefore concentrate on those aged seven, eight or nine years of age.
Odds
This is an open Handicap, but the previous winners have generally returned at odds of less than 20/1. Of the last 25, eleven had an SP in the teens and thirteen had a single figure SP. Six Favourites have won, with a further nine placing.
Weights
No winning horse has carried more that 11-06 since
Bonanza Boy
in 1991, and only six have carried more than 11-00, although there were two in the last 20 renewals.
Nationality
Given its proximity to Cheltenham, Irish trainers do send some runners over and have been successful with them on seven occasions, but there has been none since 2015
Other Trends
- The last Irish winners posted seasonal RPRs between 118 and 143. The last five Irish winners had SPs of 6/1 or 5/1.
- English winners had attained a seasonal OR of at least 110. However, 21 out of 23 had an OR of at least 125, but not more than 146.
- 14 of the last 15 English winners had attained a seasonal RPR of 131, but not more than 148.
- 24 of the 32 had won over a distance of 3 miles, four of those that did not were Irish trained but all since 2013.
- 26 out of 32 had previously competed in a major, long-distance Handicap Chase like the Grand National, the Welsh National, the Eider Chase or the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown if Irish-trained.
- Two who did not meet this profile won in the last five years, one being
Regal Flow, an 11–year-old, who ran just five days before participating and last year’s winner,
Time To Get Up, had moved yards that season.
- While some horses took a break after taking part in the gruelling Welsh National, none was off the course for more than 81 days.
- No horse has won this race back-to-back, or regained their title.
- David Pipe has had four winners, but their form has been scratchy at best. Perhaps we need to take a longer look at those and consider how the Trends apply to them.
- 27 of the 32 had not run at Uttoxeter before lining up for this race.
Trend review
In short, the trends indicate we are looking for a horse that is aged seven to nine years and one that has proven its stamina. In addition, it should be highly regarded and being actively campaigned in high-profile Handicaps over marathon trips.
We will first discount all those runners who are outside the preferred age range. This excludes any horses that are trained by David Pipe, I’ll discuss those separately.
For now, we will discount the following eight horses:
- Yala Enki (who also has too much weight)
Next, we will remove any runner who is outside the desired OR or RPR ranges, which eliminates
Hewick
(RPR of 155).
Of the remaining runners, we will discard those who have not run within the required timeframe, so we’ll remove
Jersey Bean, who has been off for over 180 days.
Now we’ll look at the David Pipe runners:
- Romain De Senam
has not run in 339 days, has a current price of 33/1 and is a 10-year-old. I would consider not discounting him if he only failed on a single Trend, but given that there are three different Trends he fails to meet, I must discount him.
- El Paso Wood
has not attained the seasonal OR or RPR and his current odds of 33/1 are also greater than any previous winner. Again, as he fails multiple Trends I must discount him.
- Gwencily Berbas
ran with credit in the Eider recently (ticking an important box) and currently has odds of 20/1, so he is not discounted on the basis of that criterion. He is 11 years of age and while that is a concern, there has been an 11-year-old winner in the last few years, so he is not discounted due to his trainer’s record in the race.
Finally, I will discount
Time To Get Up
as there have not been any repeat winners. That said, his trainer got close with
Synchronised
in 2011 and due to
Yala Enki’s presence this year, he lines up with 1lb less than when winning last year.
Further discussion
We are now left with just five possible qualifiers from the field to consider in more depth. In race card order they are
Captain Drake,
Padleyourowncanoe,
Young Dev,
Gwencily Berbas
and
Supreme Escape.
Captain Drake
has competed in the last two renewals and I backed him last year having looked at the stats, but his jumping was average and he finished well down the field. That was perplexing, as this is a course his trainer does well at, with a 27% strike rate.
He popped up to spring a surprise last time out, having bounced back to form. He comes here 8lbs better off, having been dropped by the Handicapper. That was a race where just four of the 13 finished and I’m not entirely sure he will have gotten over his exertions in just 22 days.
If there was any doubt, he has had two attempts to win this race and come up short. Unlike 27 previous winners, who had not run at Uttoxeter previously.
Padleyourowncanoe
is a horse that was very unlucky two starts back. He blundered at a fence early on and his jockey lost the reins, forcing him to pull up. He was fancied in that Chase, which was won by
Éclair Surf. The field also included
Corach Rambler
and
Gericault Roque
and all three have franked their form since.
Unfortunately, he exited too soon to draw any conclusions, but he seems to retain ability. He then ran in the Virgin Bet hurdle on 5 February, where over 3 miles, it all happened too quickly for him and although he was staying on at the death, he made no impression. His trainer has had more winners here at Uttoxeter (100 with a 26% strike rate) than at any other track.
Young Dev
is an Irish raider, who has mixed Hurdling and Chasing (including banks courses) this year. His trainer is in a rich vein of form at present, sending out four winners from his last 26 runners. On his last run in Punchestown, over 3 miles, the comment is “not reach leaders” indicating he was staying on and could benefit from this step up in trip.
My main concern after this week would be the results in the Handicap Chases at Cheltenham, where few Irish raiders have even managed to place this year. I must therefore discount him, but would also note that at his current odds he does not fit the Trends criterion and he is not as fancied as the more recent Irish winners who returned at 5s or 6s.
Gwencily Berbas
is the horse I put up in the inaugural Tony’s Trends and he floundered on the heavy ground before being pulled up. He was far better (and ran much more like I expected) on better ground. Last time out he finished fifth in the Eider, the race where we had the winner
Win My Wings
advised at 20s.
He was keeping on when he made a mistake at the last. I have some reservations about the ground, which is currently described as soft, as he has performed best on good or good to soft. If conditions came in his favour, I could be convinced to have a small play, but at the time of writing, due to the ground conditions, he will not be the selection.
Supreme Escape
is trained by Evan Williams and it was one of his who was a Trends qualifier that I discounted in the inaugural article, who then went on to win at decent odds (around 18/1 as I recall) which really stung and was one of the main reasons I started advising a saver bet.
His last three runs were interesting and he seemed to be just coming to the boil in his last race, when he beat the well touted
Almazhar Garde
over 3m 6f. While he is borderline on the stats, he has been allocated a featherweight of just 10-00 and I really like the Conditional they have booked, Joe Anderson. Joe rides every horse out to the line and takes a further 7lbs off. The yard is also in rude health and just had a really nice winner,
Coole Cody, which several Discord Group members backed at 22/1 on St. Patrick’s Day.
My conclusion
Now, let’s look at the suggestions for this weekend.
Supreme Escape, who is available at 16s with Bet 365, who are going six places, is my main selection, largely because many other firms are going just five. Extra places on offer are always a gift and I will always advise places over prices, when available. Lastly, I will be really disappointed if this horse does not reward our support on Saturday.
Again, I will put up a saver. The record of the Skelton’s here means it will be
Padleyourowncanoe, who is currently hovering between 14s and 16s. This bet has as much to do with confidence in connections as it does with the horse’s ability. I see a yard that likes to gamble, as they entered him two starts back.
A brief word of advice
One key thing to remember is to always do an odds comparison and check to see if there are any offers or extra places up for grabs. It’s also worth having between two and four betting accounts open, so that you can take advantage of the best offers and odds. Remember we are always trying to maximise our chances of taking cash from the bookies.
From the horse’s mouth - a few final happy words!
🍀🍀 I must tell you that St Patrick’s Day was a very happy and GREEN one for the Discord Group, in any and every context 🍀🍀
Ginger Joe tipped up the winner of the Kim Muir, which returned at 40/1 ensuring that most of the members ended the day with their accounts well up! I keep inviting people to join the Ginger Joe Discord group, as it is totally free and the big-priced winners shared there are unreal. I'll give you just two examples (from many) to whet your whistle!
🍀 Yesterday, there was a shout-out from a member for the second placer in the Mares Novice Hurdle, who kindly returned at 80/1.
🍀 Another member put some tips together in an EW Double, which had a winner and a place, returning at around 70/1.
It’s a wonderful community who support each other in what is the most important thing - taking money off the bookies! And as I keep repeating, it’s free to join - so why not?
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