The Aintree Grand National, 4 Miles, Saturday April 9th 2022, 5.15pm
A quick Trends update
Unfortunately, it was another poor result for my Trends selection in The Scottish Grand National last week, as my pick for the Eider Handicap Chase (Trends Week #8)
Win My Wings, followed up easily here!
I had discounted her on the basis of weight, but the Claimer dealt with that aspect for Trends purposes and she won with more than that in hand. The main Trends selection was sent off at 33/1 and just lost out on repaying support when passed in the final 3 yards of the race.
Such small margins make all the difference in how those who backed the horse felt, as it would have made a decent profit if it had just held on!!
A few changes
I am going to look at the top-rated horse going forward, to see if the weights are affected when they are higher, or lower than normal. That way I can see if it affects the stats. Betting on this sport is always a learning game and I will add additional data points, when necessary, to see how they impact the Trends as I attempt to refine the process.
Grand National Trends
This week, we will look at
The Aintree Grand National, which is one the highlights of the NH racing calendar. It's also the 'only race in the world' for millions of people who place their sole wager for the year on it!
Aintree is a left-handed flat track, but the fences, while less formidable than in the past, still have a drop on the landing side, which not all horses (or their jockeys for that matter) take to well. Nevertheless, 40 runners will set out over a 4-mile-long trip and encounter those fences, which take some jumping in a large field (despite them being diminished over the last few years for safety reasons).
The stats – will the Trends help you make a selection?
Ages
Since 1988, all 31 winners have been aged eight years (x 6), nine years (x 8), ten years (x 7), eleven years (x 7), or twelve years (x 3) That said, the last 12-year-old winner was
Amberleigh House
in 2004.
Odds
The Grand National is an Open Handicap, but six favourites have won. The last being Tiger Roll in 2018, who repeated in 2019. Winners have been priced up to 100/1, so shocks are possible, but before you get too excited, 29 out of the 31 previous winners were returned at 33/1, or less.
Weights
For a long time, winners carried less than 10-00 and between 1989 and 2004 none broke this barrier. Since
Hedgehunter
in 2005, there have been six winners who carried between 11-00 and 11-06, so the race is definitely attracting classier types.
Other Trends
- The previous 31 winners achieved a seasonal OR between 129 and 165.
- Previous Irish winners achieved a rating between 129 and 159.
- Previous English winners achieved a rating between 137 and 165.
- The last 28 winners acieving a seasonal TS recorded figures between 99 and 155.
- 31 winners achieved a seasonal RPR of between 123 and 171.
- Irish winners achieved figures between 123 and 171.
- English winners achieved figures between 130 and 171 (although since 1990, all achieved at least a rating of 141).
- When combining the OR, TS and RPR, all 28 previous winners (who obtained all three ratings) achieved a combined average of between 131 and 163.
- 29 out of 31 had proven their stamina by winning a chase over 3 miles, or more and both of the others had close second places.
- No horse was off the track more than 90 days, with 30 of the 31 being off the track between 20 and 60 days.
- The 31 previous winners had already run between two and ten times that season, with 29 running between three and nine times.
- 29 of the previous 31 runners completed on their final prep run and the only one that did not was sent off very well-fancied (with the other winning) when the going was heavy.
Trend review
In short, the Trends indicate we are looking for a horse that is aged from eight to eleven years that has 11-06 (or less) to carry, has run at least three times and has proven its stamina by winning over at least 3 miles (or coming a very close second in a high-class chase over at least 3 miles).
Firstly, I will discount the five horses that have over 11-06 to carry, namely
Minella Times,
Delta Work,
Easysland,
Any Second Now
and
Run Wild Fred.
I will also overlook
Blacklion, as no 13-year-old has won the race in the last 31 renewals.
Removed next is any runner that has not raced at least three times this season. Namely, these are
Escaria Ten
(who also may not stay),
De Rasher Counter,
Kildisart
and
Discorama. This also applies to two of the reserve horses -
Commodore
and
Romain De Senam.
I will now discount a further six of the remaining runners who do not meet the OR, TS or RPR requirements. This takes out
Enjoy Allen,
Freewheelin Dylan,
Mighty Thunder,
Augusta Gold,
Domaine De L’Isle
(TS drags the average too low) and
Poker Party
(RPR too low).
Next, I will remove any unfancied runner (10/1 or less) who did not complete their final prep run. So, this takes out
Brahma Bull,
Lord Du Mesnil
and
Phoenix Way.
Lastly, I will now discount any runner who is trading at 50/1 or greater. This means removing
Class Conti,
Top Ville Ben,
Lostintraslation,
Deise Aba
and
Dingo Dollar
from the list.
Further discussion
We are now left with a massive 13 qualifiers based on the Trends, so now I have to make some tough choices to reduce them further!
First, I will discount any runner whose trainer does poorly here and has not had a winner in the past five years, so that removes
Good Boy Bobby. Also, given the ongoing poor form of the Elliott yard, I will discount his three remaining runners,
Death Duty,
Mount Ida
and
Samcro.
I’ve also seen that Ruby Walsh is not convinced
Burrows Saint
will stay the distance. So, even though Paul Townsend has selected this Mullins runner, I will pass him over as he failed to stay last year.
Longhouse Poet
is clearly one who has been aimed at the race, especially after his win in the Thyestes, but his last run over an inadequate trip must be ignored. The yard has not been in form and they have not had many runners recently either.
However, his trainer thinks he is a classier type than his previous winner and does not send many over to the UK. He has been the subject of good word and the price reflects his chance and he is trading around 15s, depending on your bookie.
Fiddlerontheroof
has run well this year, but he has always found one too good. There also has to be serious doubts about his stamina, as he has yet to win a race over 3 miles.
Two For Gold
has been a revelation this year, winning over 3 miles first time out and then running well over shorter trips. Again, over this extended trip I am not sure he will stay. However, his price is currently around 40/1 or more, so he would be borderline as a Trends selection.
Santini
has been running well since moving to the Gundry yard. However, his wins (the last in 2020) have all come in much smaller fields, so hurly-burly of this type of race will be totally foreign to him!
Cloth Cap
was sent off as a very short-priced Favourite in 2021, before being pulled up when he was unable to dominate. Given the issues last year, I am not going to be rushing to get on this year, when his form coming into the race this year is not as strong.
Snow Leopardess
is unbeaten this year and won over the fences when beating
Hill Sixteen
by a head in early December. She has been supported over the past few days and her odds have shortened to the point she is likely to go off favourite.
Her back story has been punted all over the media, so there is definitely an element of sentiment in the betting, which perhaps masks her true ability. Whilst she won well that day in December, she was being closed down in the final 100 yards. So, whilst I think she will go close, it will not be her day on Saturday.
Éclair Surf
has been another to show excellent form recently. Winning in January, before failing to concede 11lbs to the obviously well-handicapped
Win My Wings
in the Eider, when carrying 11-11.
He will feel like he has been let loose with only 10-06 on his back and the market has found him, as he is biggest-priced at 14/1 and generally around 12/1.
The last horse we need to consider is
Fortescue, from the Henry Daly team, who stayed on well to beat
Fiddlerontherooof
last time out, following on from placing third in the Peter Marsh, behind
Royale Pagaille, the time before. He is available between 28s and 33s, with up to seven places on offer.
Conclusion
The main selection has to be
Éclair Surf. He was not certain to get in and Tom Bellamy has elected to ride him. His form with
Win My Wings
could not have been franked more comprehensively last weekend either. You are getting a confirmed, progressive, stayer on your side.
My Savers
As I did with Cheltenham, I will put up both an Irish and an English saver.
My Irish saver is
Longhouse Poet, who has been laid out for the race and won very well at Gowran, beating a number of his re-opposing Irish rivals well that day.
The English saver,
Fortescue, is a little more ground dependant than I’d like, but the recent rain will play to his strengths. While his jockey cannot claim in the race, the horse has been improving steadily over the last year and his jumping is described as “superb” by connections.
Final words…
Do these three things before you bet on the Aintree Grand National:
- Check here to see the offers available and consider having several betting accounts
- Compare bookies using Oddschecker to find the best odds and places available
- Set your limits and only wager at the best UK-licensed bookies
Have fun on Grand National day and the very best of luck to you all!!
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