Key Points
- Shaky Spurs are underdogs at home
- Fiesty clash expected
- 1.5pt play, my biggest of the weekend
Chelsea make the short hop across London to face Spurs at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday brimming with confidence.
This follows the 5-1 demolition away at ten-man Southampton saw The Blues rise to 2nd in the table and move 7 points behind leaders Liverpool. The victory was Enzo Maresca’s side’s 4th in a row in all competitions, a run which has seen them score 12 goals in the process and concede just 2.
Spurs by contrast have been dogged by a lack of consistency this term and currently sit 10th in the PL standings after 14 games, trailing Chelsea by 8 points after their 1-0 defeat away at Bournemouth on Thursday night.
Ange Postecoglou’s team generally don’t lack goals though, scoring in all but 3 games this campaign and are the joint 3rd top scorers in the league. However, it’s defensively where they’ve really struggled, keeping just 1 clean sheet in front of their own fans all season.
Similarly, when Chelsea play there are usually plenty of goals on offer, with Maresca’s side top scorers in the PL with 31 goals. Yet The Blues have managed just 1 shutout in the last 9 PL matches.
All aboard the Maresca Express!
Chelsea are the form team over the last 6 games, taking 14 points from a possible 18 and netting 14 times in those half-dozen games. The Maresca train doesn’t look like slowing down at any point soon either, with The Blues’ Champions League bid going from strength to strength with each fixture played.
The goals are flying in for the boys from West London, with Chelsea scoring 2 or more goals in 7 separate fixtures. Their total of 31 goals is more than any other side in the league this term, and they have 8 goals in the last 2 PL games.
Inconsistency is still Ange’s Achilles' heel
There had been a lot of judges reckoning this campaign for Postecoglou and Tottenham would see an improvement on last season’s 5th-placed finish and I myself backed them to go one better to break into the top 4. However, a real lack of consistency has blighted Spurs this term, and they have only managed to record back-to-back wins once in the PL so far.
After destroying Aston Villa at home in early November, Spurs then followed this up by losing to then-winless Ipswich on their own patch. In a similar fashion, the 4-0 demolition of Manchester City at The Etihad was then met with a 1-1 draw at home to Fulham in the next game.
Tension is mounting in North London
Frustration is building for Postecoglou and all concerned with Spurs. The tepid loss at Bournemouth on Thursday night was a very worrying look for the club and some of the fans are getting restless.
If they are to mount a serious attempt to gatecrash the Champions League positions, the North London side need to be more ruthless and show more resilience in defence to grind out results.
Promises of fireworks
Another factor to consider ahead of Sunday’s showdown is the proximity between the two clubs, separated by just 9 miles, which adds an extra spice to the occasion. Like most clubs in London, Chelsea hate Spurs.
The fans are historically more up for this game than most and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will be a lively place to be come Sunday late afternoon.
Goals and Christmas cards
Not only do I envisage goals at both ends of the pitch, but I also see some early Christmas cards being given out as the tackles undoubtedly fly in. There have been an average of 25.7 fouls across Spurs’ PL games this season with 4 of the last 5 matches averaging 26.2 fouls.
Rodrigo Bentancur and Dominic Solanke have committed the most fouls for Tottenham, whilst defensive duo Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie have averaged 2.6 tackles per match.
For Chelsea these stats are 24.9 fouls on average in games involving The Blues with 3 of the last 4 having an average of over 26 fouls during the match. Moises Caceido has had the highest average number of fouls given against him per game with 2, whilst teammate Wesley Fofana has averaged the next highest with 1.6 fouls per Chelsea appearance.
Foul play involved
When looking at the range of betting markets for this mouth-watering London derby, the obvious first place to look was markets involving goals, given how free-scoring each side has been this season and Spurs’ pretty dreadful makeshift defence.
Chelsea have scored first in 5 of their 7 PL matches away from Stamford Bridge, with Tottenham conceding the first goal in exactly 5 of their 7 fixtures on home soil. So
StarSports
offering the best price of 17/20 on The Blues adding to this statistic and scoring first once again on Sunday looks a decent bet.
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BTTS too short at 4/11
With the last 5 of Spurs’ home PL games and the previous 4 of Chelsea’s away games ending with both teams finding the net and taking into account both sides ability to score yet vulnerability to concede goals, it’s understandable that BTTS Yes is prohibitively short at 4/11 generally.
I don’t think there’s any real value there though and certainly won’t be putting up a 4/11 shot here as a tip.
Taylor keeping a small Christmas card list
Given the fiery nature of the clash (last season there were 32 fouls in the fixture and 33 in the game at Spurs), it wouldn’t be surprising if there are more than a few cards being dished out by referee Anthony Taylor.
For there to be over 5.5 cards in the match,
Betfair Sportsbook
are offering best odds of 23/20. The man in the middle Anthony Taylor actually dished 8 cards out to Chelsea alone in the last Blues’ away game he presided over but since that history-making game at Bournemouth, he’s generally kept it quiet so I’m happy to pass this bet up.
Betfair welcome offer:
Get £50 in free bets.
Top tip: Over 25.5 total fouls at 5/6 with SkyBet
I think a safer play for this blockbuster derby is for over 25.5 fouls do be given at best priced 5/6 with
SkyBet.
With no doubt some crunching tackles throughout the game, especially with the likes of Enzo, Caicedo, Sarr, Bissouma and possibly Bentancur in the middle of the park it should be feisty.
Add in the number of fouls given in recent matches of both sides and the foul counts of both games last season and this line looks at least a few fouls short and that makes this must bet material.
Tottenham vs Chelsea Best Bet
- Market:
Match Total Fouls Committed
- Selection:
26+ (Over 25.5)
- Odds:
5/6
- Stake:
1.5pt
- Bookie:
SkyBet
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