Welcome to the latest edition of my weekly racing recap, where we look back at the major news and results shaping the National Hunt season. As always, the aim is to understand how these developments may influence the months ahead, and to see whether any early ante-post opportunities are beginning to emerge, particularly with the
Cheltenham Festival
getting closer every day in the background.
State Man Sidelined: A Major Champion Hurdle Shake-Up
The biggest news of the week, arguably the biggest of the season so far, is the confirmation that State Man has been ruled out for the year after suffering an injury on the gallops. It’s a huge blow for connections and a dramatic shake-up of the Champion Hurdle market.
With State Man absent, several important questions now surface as the early-season trials approach.
Where does this leave Anzadam?
With the same ownership involved, does he now reroute to the Morgiana Hurdle, or will he stick to the original plan of traveling to the UK for the Fighting Fifth, where he would meet both Constitution Hill and The New Lion. What about Lossiemouth, while she still seems a likely long-term candidate for the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, State Man’s absence could tempt connections to rethink. A switch from the Hatton’s Grace to the Morgiana would be a strong signal that a two-mile Champion Hurdle campaign is at least under consideration. Dont forget though we also have Constitution Hill and The New Lion, both still have questions of their own. Can Constitution Hill return to his brilliant best after recent issues and can The New Lion confirm he truly belongs at the top level back over the minimum trip.
Even without State Man, the early narrative around the division is heating up nicely, and the coming weeks could reshape the market all over again.
Cheltenham Review
L’eau Du Sud Steps Forward in the Shloer Chase
Turning to the track, the standout result of the past few days came on Friday at Cheltenham, where L’eau Du Sud produced a commanding performance to win the Shloer Chase for the Skelton team. His jumping, sharp, fluent, and confident was the key difference, and he looked a much-improved horse from his novice campaign.
However, when viewed through a Champion Chase lens, caution is still advised. The form of the race now raises as many questions as it answers, Jonbon, one of the most consistent performers of recent years and never previously out of the first two, was simply not himself. He never travelled with his usual zest and was beaten early, he didnt jump well at all. The hope will be that he improves significantly for the run, and for a second run after a wind operation when he returns to his beloved Sandown for the Tingle Creek.That said, as admirable as Jonbon is, a Champion Chase win still feels beyond him unfortunately. The remainder of the field was largely made up of older or exposed horses, making it difficult to treat the Shloer form as definitive Grade 1 Champion Chase material.
So, is L’eau Du Sud a genuine player for March? He’ll certainly take his place if all goes well, and his performance at the weekend is encouraging, but whether he’s good enough to win a Champion Chase is another matter entirely, they'd have to keep him extremely fresh with Harry Skelton already confirming hes a lot better horse fresh so I can definitely see a lighter campaign on route to most likely a placed effort in the big race come Spring time.
Champion chase odds: 10/1 with BetMGM
A Rising Star Emerges: No Drama This End Dominates the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
Later on the Cheltenham card, we were treated to an outstanding performance in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle from No Drama This End, a hugely exciting prospect from the Paul Nicholls yard.
Heads Up was a warm favourite for John McConnell and attempted to make all. To his credit, he set strong fractions and kept on bravely for second, but the moment No Drama This End loomed upsides, the race was over. A couple of reminders from Harry Cobden were all that was required before he powered clear, showcasing both class and authority.
Nicholls has already nominated the Challow Novices' Hurdle as his next target, a race won last season by The New Lion, and he looks a very worthy participant. Looking ahead to the Cheltenham Festival, he appears to have the gears for the Turners Novices' Hurdle, while also clearly possessing the necessary stamina. At this stage, that feels his most likely destination.
If he wins the Challow, he will head into March as the UK’s leading hope in that division, though, as ever, the Irish battalions will be formidable opposition in the novice races.
Turners Novices Hurdle Odds: 12/1 with BetMGM
July Flower Impresses, Be Aware an Interesting Prospect
On Saturday, July Flower delivered a brilliant performance in the Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial, showcasing herself as an outstanding natural jumper for the Henry de Bromhead team under Darragh O'Keeffe. She was quick, confident, and accurate at her fences, everything you want from a novice chaser at this stage of the season.
However, while the performance was visually striking, the Arkle in March already looks exceptionally deep, and at this stage it’s hard to see July Flower matching the top geldings in the division. She remains a talented mare with a promising future, but the very top of the Arkle market may prove a step too far.
The other horse of note in the race was Be Aware, who ran a big race while conceding a 7lb weight allowance. That effort can be highly marked up. Connections have suggested the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown could be next, and they seem content to keep him at two miles for now.
While he doesn’t look an Arkle horse either, he shapes as the type who could be stepped up in trip come the spring, with a race like the Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree over two and a half miles looking a logical long-term target.
The Big Gun Novices Step Out
The weekend and Monday’s racing also gave us several major clues in the novice chase divisions, with some genuinely exciting prospects emerging.
Final Demand: A New Brown Advisory Star?
At Navan, Final Demand made an exceptional chase debut, with many observers noting he was “jumping them like hurdles.” Already a short-priced favourite for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, he’s now into 6/4, and on this evidence it will take something very special to beat him. He looked the real deal, smooth, powerful, and totally at ease over fences.
Brown Advisory Odds: 6/4 with BetMGM
Harry Lowes: A Promising Prospect for the Skeltons
On Monday at Exeter, Harry Lowes produced a thoroughly likeable debut performance for Dan and Harry Skelton. Owned by JP McManus, he was given a patient, educational ride and won with plenty in hand. While Mydaddypaddy grabbed the bigger headlines on debut, Harry Lowes should not be underestimated. With his background as a three-mile point winner, a step up in trip later in the season looks logical, and he could easily develop into another Turners Novices' Chase contender for the yard.
Turners Novices Hurdle Odds: 14/1 with BetMGM
Lulamba: Talented, but Wanting a Trip?
We also saw the chase debut of Lulamba for Nicky Henderson, currently second favourite for the Arkle. He was professional and efficient, though he did receive the generous four-year-old allowance. While the performance was pleasing, he continues to shape like a horse who will ultimately want further. With no intermediate Grade 1 novice chase at Cheltenham, he may be forced down the two-mile route anyways, but he looks a far stronger prospect for something like the Manifesto Novices’ Chase over 2m4f at Aintree.
Arkle Odds: 7/2 with BetMGM
Kopek Des Bordes: The One to Beat in the Arkle?
And finally, arguably the most exciting novice chaser seen so far this season, Kopek Des Bordes. The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner made his chase debut and was electric. Keen early, he settled beautifully for Paul Townend before being allowed an inch of rein, and he took off. He has pace, power, scope, and good jumping technique which you want in a two-mile chaser. At this stage, he looks the most likely Arkle winner unless something extraordinary emerges. He’s a horse to get behind, classy, confident, and hugely exciting.
Arkle Odds: 7/4 with BetMGM
Ante-Post Play: One to Back Now
The past week has been hugely informative for the spring festivals, but from an ante-post perspective most of the key players are now either too short or already exposed.
There is, however, one horse I want in the book and that's Harry Lowes.
Connections think a great deal of him, and with a step up in trip almost certainly in his future, the Turners Novices’ Hurdle looks an ideal long-term target. At this stage, the price is still appealing, he stays well but clearly has the pace needed for a race like the Turners.
Ante-Post Selection
Harry Lowes – Turners Novices’ Hurdle
1pt each way @ 14/1 (BetMGM)
Current Ante-Post Portfolio
Turners Novices Hurdle: Harry Lowes - 14/1 (1pt each-way, 3 places) ( with BetMGM)
Stayers’ Hurdle: Impose Toi – 16/1 (1pt each-way, 3 places) (with BetMGM)
Betfair Chase: Haiti Couleurs – 3/1 (2pts win) (with BetMGM)
Every week I will be analysing the weeks horse racing betting and comparing the latest betting odds and finding us the best value horse racing tips from the ante post markets. Identify potential horses from the weeks action that may go onto to make big impacts in the big spring festivals such as the 2026 Cheltenham Festival.
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