West Coast v Carlton Betting Tips: Wet but not wild in the West!

It’s been nothing short of a disaster for Carlton since their narrow loss to the Giants at the start of July. They were flag favourites before that match and now are almost 50/50 to even make finals.

That’s what happens when you drop 5 games from 6 and each of those losses were to direct finals opposition. Now it’s do or die and Mother Nature could well play her part in the way this match plays out.

All the pressure on the Blues

How they are going to turn this round from a momentum perspective remains to be seen and the market has been well against them since opening for this tricky trip to Perth. They opened as 14.5 point favourites, that’s down to just 4.5 in places now. I feel the value has gone now though and that looks about right.

West Coast will have a free swing at this in their last home game of the campaign and they come into it with confidence after 2 wins on the bounce. Those victories have come at home against Gold Coast and away to North. It’s still only 5 wins for the season but clearly this is a game they can win.

The two teams clearly have different motivations in this tie but importantly they have strong motivations and will fight this one out for four quarters. That should help us in the way I’m leaning towards a bet. High intensity and pressure normally leads to lower scoring and the ball will hopefully remain in congestion.

Bet and perform a rain dance

Our bet this week revolves around the weather, which is mighty important in Australian Rules Football for those that aren’t familiar. The forecasts across 5 different websites all give rain for Sunday and generally speaking up to 17:00 AWST.

This match starts at 14:40 on the Western Coast of Australia. So if accurate, there should be rain for the majority of the game.

Potential scrappy affair on the cards

This rain if it transpires will lead to a fairly low-scoring total and scrappy affair. We have a little discrepancy in totals currently with the number at 164.5 at bet365 yet 168.5 at Betfair Sportsbook.

They must be looking at slightly different weather reports!

Two picks from Betfair Sportsbook

One extra factor that would support taking an unders bet even in average weather would be the incredible injury list that The Blues have currently. The last two Coleman medal winners are both out seemingly and that massively reduces the potency of the Carlton attack. Their last three matches have all gone below 168.5pts too for good measure.

Our opportunity is clear, taking the under 168.5pts is the way to play this for the majority of our stake. We can then take a more speculative bet that the total will actually fall below 150.5pts at 11/4 also with Betfair Sportsbook because if that rain is heavy, they’ll be close to a 30pt per quarter level. So if we get it right, it’s important to get paid well.

Get £50 in free bets when you register as a new punter at Betfair Sportsbook today.

West Coast v Carlton Best Bets

Best Bets

• Market: Total Points
• Selection: Under 168.5pts
• Odds: 9/10
• Stake: 1pt
• Bookie: Betfair Sportsbook

• Market: Total Match Points
• Selection: 150pts Or Less
• Odds: 11/4
• Stake: 0.25pt
• Bookie: Betfair Sportsbook

🌎 Follow TheFund elsewhere!

Instagram: thefund.bet

Telegram:
thefundbet