Key Points
- West Ham finally settling down?
- Seagulls not exactly flying high
- Bowen to keep Hammers happy
West Ham host Brighton at the London Stadium this weekend as The Hammers search for some consistency to their form in what has been a rather mixed bag of results so far this term.
Julen Lopetegui’s side are currently 14th in the table, with 19 points after 5 wins and 7 defeats in their opening 16 games summing up how it’s been for Hammers fans. Fabian Hurzeler’s Brighton are 5 points better off than their opponents and sit 9th in the league but are just 4 points behind 4th-placed Nottingham Forest.
West Ham conceded a last-minute equaliser away at Bournemouth in their last game and have won 1 of their last 4 fixtures, so will be looking to atone for these dropped points when Albion visit the capitol.
Brighton have taken just 2 points from the last 12 on offer and suffered a painful 3-1 defeat at home to rivals Crystal Palace last Sunday. Naturally, they will be hoping to improve this current form when they travel to the London Stadium.
However, with just 1 win in their last 4 matches on the road and against a West Ham side who have won 3 of their last 5 on home soil, it could be a tough afternoon for The Seagulls to leave east London with a result.
Consistently inconsistent
Like several sides in the top-flight this campaign, West Ham are still searching for a consistent run of form to move them further up the table and into the top half.
Two wins, two draws, and two defeats in their last 6 games prove just how patchy The Hammers have been this season. However, facing a Brighton team with exactly the same number of points haul from their last 6 could well work in Lopetegui’s favour.
Without a clean sheet in any of these previous half-dozen fixtures and just a solitary shut-out in their last 10, Albion could be picked off here by a hungry Hammers side intent on avenging the last-minute goal that cost them victory last time out.
Once-soaring Seagulls have had wings clipped
Up until 4 games ago, The Seagulls were flying and perched in a lofty 4th position. However, since winning 2-1 at south-coast neighbours Bournemouth towards the end of November, Brighton have amassed just 2 points and conceded 9 goals during the process. It’s a streak of results that has seen them drop 5 places.
Despite still making a more than solid start to another season in the top flight, Herzeler’s outfit have struggled defensively and a lack of clean sheets has cost them more points. Albion have kept only 3 clean sheets so far (just 1 in their previous dozen PL matches and 1 in the last 14 in all competitions) so there are defensive worries indeed ahead of the trip to East London.
Brilliant Bowen keeps bubbles blowing
Where would The Hammers be without their instrumental attacker Jarrod Bowen? Certainly worse off than where they are now, with the England international bagging 4 goals and 4 assists in the PL already this season.
Bowen has the capability of producing a moment of magic out of nothing and can be the difference between Lopetegui’s men getting a result or not. The energetic winger has scored 3 times in his last 5 games at the London Stadium, including the match-winner against Wolves in their last home fixture, so the Albion defence will be all too aware of his qualities.
BTTS markets look interesting for this one
Both of these sides will be looking for some early Christmas cheer with it being the final game before the big day.
Looking into respective markets available for the showdown at the London Stadium, I’m firstly intrigued by both teams’ capability to score and concede with equal frequency. Loptegui’s Hammers have only managed 1 clean sheet in 8 matches in front of their own fans, yet have only failed to score twice on home soil.
Similarly Herzeler’s Brighton have no trouble finding the net away from the AMEX, having scored in all 8 of their games on the road. Defensively, however, they have managed just 2 clean sheets away from home and just 1 in the last 7 away.
Moreover, Albion have conceded at least 1 goal in each of the previous 4 fixtures on their travels and are without a clean sheet since mid-October.
Finding the best bets in time for Christmas
Ladbrokes
are offering the best price on both teams to score at 1/2. Given 75% of West Ham’s home games and 75% of Brighton’s away games have produced this outcome, there is an argument that, despite the short odds, there is value.
Furthermore, in 7 of West Ham’s last 10 and 9 of Brighton’s last 10 fixtures, both teams have scored. I’m not going to put that up as a selection but for those looking at bet builders, it’s a fair old start point.
Focus on the West Ham win markets
Taking into account Brighton’s patchy form of late, with just 1 win and 10 goals conceded in their last 5 fixtures, I am looking at plays involving The Hammers to get a result from the match. West Ham have scored at least 1 goal in each of their last 5 fixtures and I expect them to breach the rocky Brighton backline at some point during the game.
West Ham-Draw on the double chance market is best priced with
StarSports
at 8/13. The fact that Lopetegui’s men have only lost 1 of their last 5 at home and Brighton have failed to win in 3 of the last 4 away gives that real potential.
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Top tip: West Ham +0.25 Asian Handicap at 5/6 with bet365
However, instead of the double chance I am tipping West Ham +0.25 on the Asian handicap, at better odds of 5/6 with
bet365
as the higher value option for the game. Effectively we have our stake split in two equally, half the bet going on the ‘0’ handicap which is a draw-no-bet, and half on the +0.5 handicap which is effectively the same as the double chance.
If West Ham draw we win a half stake bet and if they win we will collect both bets. Of course if they lose our full stake is lost.
I feel Hurzeler’s Brighton are in a bit of a vulnerable position at the moment. For probably the first time this campaign Brighton are facing a slight wobble in form and a test of their resolve.
West Ham have improved of late and the atmosphere at the London Stadium could well spur the home side. I feel they can take advantage of Brighton’s defensive vulnerabilities and send The Seagulls back to the South-coast with their wings well and truly clipped.
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Bet £10 & get £50.
West Ham vs Brighton Best Bet
- Market:
Asian Handicap
- Selection:
West Ham +0.25
- Odds:
5/6
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
bet365
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