Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn Betting Tips: Do-or-die final in the rain

Finals are here and Friday night sees the most exciting of the first four finals matches. The Western Bulldogs will host Hawthorn Hawks and after finishing 5th and 6th respectively, it’s an elimination final at the MCG!

In truth, this will be more of a home game for the Hawks, with the Dogs being more at home over the city at Marvel. That being said, both have played the ground well this season and in this game, both will fancy their chances.

Somethings gotta give!

Both teams arrive in great form, winning 8 of their last 10 games. The Dogs gave fellow finalists GWS a touching up in their last game 98-61, Meanwhile, Hawthorn managed to score a combined 301pts over their last two games albeit against North and Richmond.

Balanced betting for the final

The betting is more balanced than in any of the other finals with the following best prices:

• Bulldogs 3/4 with QuinnBet
• Hawthorn 59/50 with Unibet

It’s not that market I want to play into though with a preference towards another rain-based play. For those who have followed my tips over the season, you’ll know we’ve had plenty of success in that area.

Circumstance to help lower score

Finals in general tend to be lower scoring than the regular season, that’s been the status quo since the beginning of time.
You expect higher pressure rankings and the ball in open play less than normal. There is also a willingness to kill time more than in any home and away game throughout the year.

I like that element combined with the likelihood of rain in Melbourne on Friday night to give us an unders play. Currently, bookmakers have totals ranging between 164.5 and 166.5.

The unders 9/10 at Unibet

Given the same odds are offered each side, clearly the correct strategy is to take unders on the highest available total. That takes us to Unibet to bet their 166.5 for the unders at 9/10.

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Second bet: Under 130.5 pts at 10/1 with Betfair Sportsbook

Again for regular followers, when betting the unders with rain a real possibility I like to add another bet in. A further, smaller-sized bet at bigger odds on an alternate total line. In this particular case I’m happy to go speculative and take the under 130.5pts at 10/1 with Betfair Sportsbook.

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Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn Best Bets

Best Bets

• Market: Total Points
• Selection: Under 166.5
• Odds: 9/10
• Stake: 1pt
• Bookie: Unibet

• Market: Alternative Total Points
• Selection: 130.5
• Odds: 10/1
• Stake: 0.15pt
• Bookie: Betfair Sportsbook

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