Key Points
- Entertainment assured!
- Attacking outlooks collide
- 1.5pt tip, my strongest play of the weekend
Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth travel to Molineux to face an upwardly mobile Wolves side who moved out of the bottom three following their convincing if not surprising 4-1 victory away at Fulham.
Gary O’Neil’s team are unbeaten in the last 4 PL matches and have won the last two games, lifting them out of the relegation zone for the first time all season and ahead of 18th-placed Ipswich on goal difference.
13th-placed Cherries have had a bit of a mixed set of results with 4 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats this term but have still made a decent return from the first dozen games. Despite losing the previous 2 PL fixtures, Bournemouth are only 4 points behind 6th-placed Spurs and have scored in each of the last 5 games.
After much scrutiny and criticism this campaign, the tide looks to have turned for O’Neil and his side, with 8 points taken from the last 12 available after collecting just a single point in the 8 games prior.
On home soil, Wolves have taken 4 points from the last 2 games after previously losing all 4 fixtures at Molineux before the upturn in form. So there are signs of recovery for the west Midlands outfit as they smell blood when The Cherries come to town.
O’Neil’s men have also scored in every single home game this season, a feat matched by only 4 other PL clubs.
Fair to expect goals
Despite Wolves’ positive results in recent games, the stats don’t lie and still show they have only managed 1 clean sheet from 12 games all season and have conceded the most number of goals in the PL with 28.
For all their defensive worries though, O’Neil and his team are usually good for scoring goals too, with 20 goals scored so far. Only Brentford with 22 have managed to find the net more times than Wolves’ outside of the top 6 sides.
Cherries also have their defensive struggles
Bournemouth too have struggled defensively this campaign and are one of 6 sides yet to keep a clean sheet on the road from their 6 matches. In fact, just like Wolves, The Cherries have only managed 1 clean sheet all season and have conceded in each of the last 4 PL games.
With that said, also like Wolves, the south-coast side don’t tend to struggle to find the net, scoring in 9 of their 12 matches so far so it should make for an entertaining affair come Saturday.
Brazilian brilliance leads both attacking lines
With 7 goals and 3 assists to his name this season, there’s no doubt Matheus Cunha is the main goal threat for O’Neil’s team. The Brazilian forward has bagged 4 goals in his last 3 appearances, including a brace at Craven Cottage last weekend.
Moreover, Cunha has scored in the last 5 away games in a row and is going through a real purple patch right now in front of goal and poses a real threat to the Bournemouth backline.
For The Cherries, fellow Brazilian and club record signing Evanilson is the danger man for Iraola’s team, helping himself to 3 goals in his last 4 appearances and has scored in back-to-back away matches.
How to profit?
When it comes to the betting markets for this clash at Molineux, the first port of call looked to be markets involving permutations of goals and shots in the game.
Cherries odds-on to have over 14.5 shots at goal with Betfair
Bournemouth have had the 5th-highest number of shots at goal and in 25% of their games they’ve had more than 15.5 shots. I am drawn to the Team Total Shots market with The Cherries best priced at 8/11 with
Betfair Sportsbook
to have over 14.5 shots at goal. That’s fine for those looking for a solid bet at odds-on.
With Wolves’ dodgy defence and the way Iraola likes his team to play attacking football, it’s set up for his side to create a stack of chances in my opinion. With an average of 15.5 shots in their 6 away games and across their 12 PL matches in total, the 8/11 price does look appealing.
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Semenyo to have over 3.5 shots at 11/10 with bet365
In a similar vein, Antoine Semenyo has taken the 2nd highest number of shots at goal in the whole league, with only Erling Haaland surpassing his 32 shots at goal so far, an average of 4.3 shots per game.
bet365
are offering best odds of 11/10 on Semenyo continuing this trend and having over 3.5 shots towards Jose Sa’s goal. That’s also a fair enough play on the pure numbers.
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Top tip: BTTS + over 2.5 goals at 17/20 with Ladbrokes
For the advised bet in this game, I’m simplifying things a little and focusing on a key stat. In 4 of The Cherries 6 games away from The Vitality Stadium both teams have scored and across their 12 fixtures, this has happened 8 times.
Similarly with Wolves, along with Leicester and Brentford, both teams to score has occurred in a PL high 10 of their 12 games so far and in 5 out of 6 matches at Molineux. Coupled with Wolves managing to score in every home game yet only keeping 1 clean sheet and Bournemouth yet to keep a shutout on their travels, it does feel like this has all the makings of an entertaining goal-fest.
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More key stats to back up this bet
5 of O’Neil’s 6 home fixtures and 9 of his 12 fixtures in charge this campaign have produced over 2.5 goals, with fans at Molineux seeing the highest total number of goals with a staggering 23 in 6 matches.
Half of The Cherries games have ended up with over 2.5 goals, including each of their last 3 matches, with Bournemouth scoring in the last 5 consecutive games and hitting 2 or more goals in 5 matches this term.
With that bombardment of numbers and stats done, the one that matters is what odds we can get on Over 2.5 goals & BTTS. The answer is 17/20 with
Ladbrokes
and that rates as a proper value bet!
Final word on the game
Both sides have shown a tendency to both concede and score goals with equal capability and I feel it’ll be an entertaining encounter between two attacking sides who possess a “we’ll score more than you” attitude.
I feel it could resemble an end-to-end basketball game as it wears on which should make for some excitement for the Molineux crowd once again.
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Wolves vs Bournemouth Best Bet
- Market:
BTTS and Over 2.5 goals
- Selection:
Yes and Over 2.5
- Odds:
17/20
- Stake:
1.5pts
- Bookie:
Ladbrokes
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