Key Points
- Tense battle in-store for relegation rivals
- Referee who loves to dish out cards at Christmas
- 3 bets including a 27/10 selection
19th-placed Wolves welcome 18th-placed Ipswich to Molineux on Saturday in a crunch clash at the bottom end of the Premier League table.
Only goal difference separates the sides, with both teams rooted on 9 points after 15 games this season and 4 points behind 17th-placed Crystal Palace and safety. A defeat for either team could leave them cut adrift from the sides above them.
For Wolves head coach Gary O’Neil, it could be his final match in charge, as his future is constantly under scrutiny with each game that goes by and his job is hanging by a thread.
With only 3 wins between them all season and a combined total of 18 defeats this term, it’s been a real season of struggle, in particular for the side from the West Midlands. Both Wolves and Ipswich head into the game on the back of 3 straight defeats and desperate for 3 points. O’Neil’s side have also conceded a staggering 10 goals in the previous 3 fixtures.
The table doesn’t lie
With only 1 win at home all campaign and amassing only 4 points on their own patch, Wolves have the 2nd-worst home record so far. Equally, Wolves’ away record doesn’t bode much better, with O’Neil’s team losing 5 of their 8 games on their travels and taking just 5 points from a possible 24 on offer.
Draws just about keeping the tractor ticking along
Kieran McKenna’s Ipswich side have also found victories hard to come by since returning to top-flight football, with the win away at Tottenham back in November still their only maximum points to date. The Tractor Boys have at least managed 6 draws from their 15 matches, including away at Brighton earlier in the campaign.
However, with just 14 goals scored and a failure to find the net in 5 fixtures already this term, it has been a season of struggle for the Suffolk side in front of goal.
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Wolves gifting goals ahead of Christmas
‘Tis the season for giving but O’Neil’s defensive troubles and woes started back in August and have been the root cause of their downfall this term which shows no signs of improvement.
Wolves have conceded an astounding 38 goals after 15 games, the most number of goals after this number of games since the 1964/1965 season. To add to that, they have shipped the highest number of goals from set-pieces in the league with 14.
Both backlines leaking
With an average of 2.53 goals conceded per game and 18 goals let in from just 7 games at Molineux, it’s no surprise O’Neil’s outfit find themselves where they are in the league.
McKenna’s Ipswich defence doesn’t fare much better either. They’ve managed to concede 27 goals, the 6th-highest in the PL, and away from Portman Road they have shipped the 3rd-highest with 15 goals in only 7 games.
Ipswich skating on thin ice
After yet another concession of two late goals at home to Bournemouth last time out, Ipswich have now dropped 15 points from leading positions this term.
With 4 of these goals conceded coming in the 87th minute or later and costing them at least another 6 points, it’s turning into a real problem for McKenna’s men to see games out and gain the crucial extra points.
By contrast, Wolves have actually scored 5 goals in the 80th minute onwards, so for all their difficulties this campaign O’Neil’s side has got the character to fight until the end.
A relegation six-pointer
With the significance of this being a relegation six-pointer, I expect the game to have a little bit more needle to it and see some strong challenges and tackles going in throughout the 90+ minutes.
Referee Chris Kavanagh could be feeling like one of Santa’s elves on Christmas Eve in terms of delivering cards. I see him being a very busy official on Saturday afternoon when the two teams meet.
Morsy and Gomes on Kavanagh’s Christmas Card list?
Kavanagh has already brandished 57 yellows and 4 red cards in 10 PL matches he’s officiated so far. Ipswich have been shown 38 yellow cards in their 15 PL games, with 20 of these being given when they’ve been the away side.
O’Neil’s Wolves have been shown 40 yellow cards, with an average of 2.67 cards per match this season. Ipswich midfielder Sam Morsy and Wolves’ Joao Gomes have each collected 4 and 5 yellows respectively in the PL and this tally might increase as the pair do battle in the middle of the park.
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How to pay for Christmas presents?
In terms of betting for this crucial relegation scrap, despite being on a run of 3 straight defeats, Ipswich have managed 6 draws this season and have put mini-unbeaten runs together already. Moreover, they have already registered both 3 and 4-game unbeaten streaks.
The previous time the Tractor Boys lost 3 games in a row, they then went on to go undefeated in 3 straight matches in November. There is plenty of fight and spirit there so I’m inclined to swerve odds on quotes for a Wolves victory.
Main pick: Over 4.5 total cards at 3/5 with Unibet
As suggested earlier, I strongly suspect the game to be physical with fouls flying in and likely plenty of cards shown. Given the fact Chris Kavanagh has the 2nd-highest number of cards per game ratio (5.70) and the highest total yellow cards and red cards combined of all Premier League referees, I want to make that the crux of my betting on the game.
I feel the card count will rise in this one, especially as the game becomes more tense with both teams fighting for potentially season-defining points.
Unibet
are offering the best price of 3/5 on there being over 4.5 cards in the match and that rates a solid main bet.
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Small-stakes side bets: Over 5.5 & 6.5 card with Betfair Sportsbook
I’m then happy to take the two lines above that for smaller stakes in case this does really blow up the way I expect it might. Those bets are to be taken at
Betfair Sportsbook
who have the highest individual prices out there.
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Wolves vs Ipswich Best Bet
- Market:
Total Cards
- Selection:
Over 4.5
- Odds:
3/5
- Stake:
1pt
- Bookie:
Unibet
- Market:
Total Cards
- Selection:
Over 5.5
- Odds:
13/10
- Stake:
0.25pt
- Bookie:
Betfair Sportsbook
- Market:
Total Cards
- Selection:
Over 6.5
- Odds:
27/10
- Stake:
0.25pt
- Bookie:
Betfair Sportsbook
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