Key Points
- Wolves to solidify at home
- Newcastle short odds for away win
- A point each no disaster for either manager
Gary O’Neill’s Wolves face Eddie Howe’s Newcastle this Sunday with both sides having contrasting form in their opening three games of this season. Wolves have gained just one point from their first 3 fixtures, a 1-1 draw away at Nottingham Forest in their last game.
Newcastle on the other hand have gained two wins and a draw from their opening three matches. They may not have played well in their opening two games but looked much better against Spurs. More importantly, they’ve accumulated points without being at their best.
Wolves can exorcise the demons
In their only PL game at Molineux this term, O’Neill’s men capitulated in the 2nd half to lose 6-2 to Chelsea, leading to not only criticism from fans and pundits but also from O’Neill himself as he tries to make his side more difficult to score against.
They somewhat achieved this away at Forest before the international break. O’Neill opted for a 4-4-1-1 formation instead of the custom 4-2-3-1 he usually plays with to try and flood the midfield area and provide more protection for the defence.
The Toon start the season strong
Howe’s Newcastle have started this campaign much better than they did in 23/24, where they lost 3 of the first 4 matches. The Toon Army have amassed 7 points from their first 9 points available. Perhaps more importantly for Howe, they have only conceded 2 goals in these games.
For context, they played 60 minutes with 10 men against Southampton on the opening day of the season and still managed to win the game and maintain a clean sheet.
The Wolf Pack can offer some bite
After shipping 9 goals in their first 3 PL games (only Everton have conceded more goals with 10) O’Neill will be looking for a more defensively sound and organised performance in front of the Wolves faithful.
Conceding 6 goals in your team’s first home match of the season is far from ideal. I, therefore, feel O’Neill could once again prioritise a solid shape in order to avoid a repeat of this happening, especially against a Newcastle side more than capable of being free-scoring.
Newcastle’s front line can cause anyone problems
Howe’s side scored 85 goals in the PL last term, a record for them in the Premier League era. With the likes of Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon in attack, they have more than enough upfront to cause any opponent in the league problems.
Similarly, Wolves scored in all but 3 of their 19 home games in the 23/24 season so seemingly don’t have much trouble finding the net at Molineux. In Cunha, they have a player who has a great knack for finding himself in the right position and can finish when needed. They will need a big game from him if they are to get a positive result.
Road blues for Howe
Howe and his team will know it’s on the road where they struggle more than at St. James’ Park, as they lost 11 of their 19 away games last season and conceded 40 goals - more than 2 goals per game on average. By contrast, they only lost 3 matches at home last campaign and conceded just 22 goals, the 5th best in the PL.
The Toon Army did manage a battling 1-1 draw away at Bournemouth in their only league game away from St. James’ Park so far this season. However, they will need more of that determination and grit to grind points out on the road if they are to improve on last season.
They were outplayed in that game and I am definitely not convinced about them in this game. They are best-priced at 23/20 with
QuinnBet
and that makes little appeal.
Both side have defensive frailties
Wolves only kept 3 clean sheets on home soil throughout the 23/24 campaign, two of these coming against relegated Burnley and Sheffield United. In total, they only had 5 clean sheets in 38 games last term, so have struggled under O’Neill in this area of the pitch.
Similarly, Newcastle only kept 2 clean sheets on the road all last season and quite surprisingly had the 4th worst defence away from home for goals conceded. The Toon Army’s defence was breached 40 times, so both sides are susceptible defensively in my opinion.
Choices, choices, choices…
Given both sides’ inability to keep clean sheets but their ability to consistently find the net, the both teams to score market peaks interest. However, with only 1/2 available at
William Hill
there has to be a better play.
The draw at 11/4 with Unibet
Instead, my attention is focused on the match result market and the draw at best price 11/4 with
Unibet
holds real value. I feel with Wolves wanting to produce a solid and tighter performance in front of their own fans after the humiliating loss to Chelsea, this could lead to a ‘not wanting to lose’ mentality.
Meanwhile, Howe and Newcastle will want to build on their encouraging start to the season and have shown in their hard-fought draw against The Cherries in their last away game that they can be more difficult to beat away this season compared to last. I often target games for a draw where I genuinely think neither manager would be too disappointed with a point.
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Wolves v Newcastle Best Bet
Best Bet
- Market:
1x2
- Selection:
Draw
- Odds:
11/4
- Stake:
0.75pt
- Bookie:
Unibet
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