The 2022/2023 National League title race between Wrexham and Notts County went down as one of the most iconic title races in English football history. The Welsh side edged the Magpies by four points to win the title with 111 points, with County rightfully promoted via the playoffs.
The 2025/2026 title race is akin to that classical affair, with just two points separating Rochdale and York with 10/9 games left. As it stands, York’s PPG sees them end on 107, while Rochdale will end on 112. However, York’s form has picked up at Stuart Maynard and the sides are set to meet at Spotland in the season finale, setting up perhaps the most enthralling final day in non-league history. With so much to play for, we have analysed the run in, looking at each teams strengths and have attempted to predict who will be crowned National League champions come April.
Aldershot (A)
Brackley (H)
Gateshead (A)
Woking (H)
Boston United (A)
Altrincham (H)
Tamworth (A)
Yeovil (H)
Rochdale (A)
York have played 37 games – one more than Rochdale and accumulated 86. Their points per game sees them end the season on 107 points, but reverse the form from the previous fixtures and they end on 108 points.
The Minstermen cruelly missed out on promotion at the hands of Barnet last season, despite accumulating 96 points. Adam Hinshelwood was dismissed controversially at the end of August, replaced by Stuart Maynard. The brave decision by Matt Uggla looks to be reaping its rewards, with York pushing Rochdale the distance.
Maynard has an embarrassment of riches at his disposal. His side have scored 97 goals – 22 more than the next best in Boreham Wood. Last years golden boot winner Ollie Pearce has continued his tremendous form into this season, scoring 29 goals to once again all but secure the top prize. The ‘ginger buffalo’ Josh Stones has also chipped in with 18 goal contributions. His physical prowess is a game changer for York, while Alex Newby (11) and Alex Hunt (9) have chipped in from midfield.
Malachi Fagan-Walcott is perhaps the unsung hero of the side. The 24-year-old was signed from Cardiff after progressing through the Tottenham academy. A physically dominant centre half with seven goals to his name, he will be playing EFL football next season, with or without The Minstermen.
Eastleigh (A)
Southend (A)
Tamworth (H)
Scunthorpe (A)
Sutton (A)
Morecambe (H)
Hartlepool (A)
Wealdstone (H)
York (H)
Rochdale are projected to get 112 points based on their PPG. However, based on their reverse fixtures they’re projected to get 107, being pipped to the title on the final day by York. Obviously there are so many more factors to consider, so without further ado, we will dive into the analysis.
Dale were relegated to Non-League for the first time in their history in 2024, finishing 11th and 4th in their two seasons so far and are looking to go one better under James McNulty.
Defensively, they are unmatched. Their 25 conceded is the lowest in the league by eight, with Manchester City loanee Oliver Whatmuff (18) keeping 17 clean sheets in just 31 starts. The defence is spearheaded by the experienced captain Ethan Ebanks Landell with Callum Perry (20) and Kyron Gordon (23) either side.
The midfield three has chopped and changed but Ryan East has made 34 appearances, registering 11 goal contributions in his fourth season with Dale.
Up front, Devante Rodney has seven goals and six assists and is the perfect partner for Emmanuel Dieseruvwe whose 22 goals makes it 65 in his last four National League seasons.
The Spotland has been a fortress with Rochdale taking 49 points from a possible 57, winning 16/19.
For me, York. The attacking talent they have should be enough to see them over the line. I also think their squad depth helps compared to Rochdale. Dale also have four way games in the next five - a run that could see York leapfrog them. If York are within striking distance on the final day, I fancy their chances of securing the most dramatic of final day triumphs.
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